Relegation 23/24 Thread

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Burnley have the easiest fixtures left so wouldn’t rule them out just yet

They're going to have to pretty much win every six pointer left. Win at Goodison, win at Sheffield United, win their homes v Bournemouth, Brentford, Forest...

Even those 5 wins only get them up to 28 points so they need a miracle.

Think Sheffield United will finish above them as Wilder's given them a better structure since coming in and they're in most games they play now even if not winning many.

Actually thinking about it would be very helpful if they went to Palace in a few weeks and got at least a draw so will be rooting for them in that one!
 

Only top 3 conceded less than us, which shows how well we have defended. if we could score (only bottom 2 scored less) we would be miles higher than where we should even be with the 10points back on
This is it, if we’d had taken even a quarter of our chances we’d have been questioning whether we could try for Europe. We’ve been solid this season, we should be easily safe already but for our dodgy finishing.
 
Only top 3 conceded less than us, which shows how well we have defended. if we could score (only bottom 2 scored less) we would be miles higher than where we should even be with the 10points back on
We will end up somewhere between 40-45 and 50 conceded goals probably. Offensively it's progress from last season, but our strikers have missed too many chances from open play as you said. We should have 6-7 goals more at least. I think we had 2 games, where we looked like real relegation battlers, Villa and Wolves away.
 
I think too much is getting made of our recent form.

Had a horrendous run of games - and wolves aside I think we have done ok in all of them with a wafer thin squad.

Arguably should have won at Spurs, good points away to Fulham and home to villa and a great resilient showing at home v spurs.

Think it was always going to be a difficult period and we came through it ok imo - with a virtually fully fit squad now and some more favourable fixtures we should be able to get out of it.
Was obvious we were going to dip back into the bottom 3 for a while with the run of games we had, almost as soon as our winning streak ended. But I did think we’d be back out of it by end of Feb. Need a win on Monday, and Luton’s wheels to fall off. Monday will give some idea if we are still able to keep performance levels high to win against weaker opposition, instead we’ll performing well for a battling point against stronger teams; 2 different mindset and styles required. Given their injuries they may sit in more than usual. Early goal would be fantastic.

If we get no points back then a second deduction, we are relying on Luton reverting to early season form, and very quickly. If we end up with a small net points loss (4 back and then 6 more taken), it will go to the wire. I would worry. Anything better than that we’ll be fine.
 
Was obvious we were going to dip back into the bottom 3 for a while with the run of games we had, almost as soon as our winning streak ended. But I did think we’d be back out of it by end of Feb. Need a win on Monday, and Luton’s wheels to fall off. Monday will give some idea if we are still able to keep performance levels high to win against weaker opposition, instead we’ll performing well for a battling point against stronger teams; 2 different mindset and styles required. Given their injuries they may sit in more than usual. Early goal would be fantastic.

If we get no points back then a second deduction, we are relying on Luton reverting to early season form, and very quickly. If we end up with a small net points loss (4 back and then 6 more taken), it will go to the wire. I would worry. Anything better than that we’ll be fine.

Palace will be missing Olise, Eze and looks like Guehi is out as well.
 

We will end up somewhere between 40-45 and 50 conceded goals probably. Offensively it's progress from last season, but our strikers have missed too many chances from open play as you said. We should have 6-7 goals more at least. I think we had 2 games, where we looked like real relegation battlers, Villa and Wolves away.

Is that with some or full points back?

Getting to 45 points now requires nearly two points a game. I would be very surprised when you look at the away schedule. Can of course win another 3-4 at Goodison so with the odd away win I think it will be more like 36-39 points as has been the range for last two seasons.

Hopefully that should be enough.
 
Do Burnley even matter in this thread anymore? They'll be down by Easter, probably relegated before even the Goodison match. They also have Forest on the final day of the season which probably isn't great.

5 points at home all season, they've been far worse than I thought they would be compared to Sheffield United who are at least battling now.
Realistically they're all but gone, same as Blades their negative goal difference being the killer, so you're right, we should concentrate on those above us.
On the Forest thing supposing we get a win on Monday and them still to come to us, to say they're out of the mix is silly.
 

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