Relegation 2022/23

[davek]

They were better than us last season and are miles ahead of us this season. Just showing a bit of respect to sides clearly better than us.

Also, I’m pretty convinced we are down as we are absolutely appalling.

Hope I’m wrong of course, but the last 18 months tells me im not.

lol lol lol

Of course we are, because we have the massive gulf of worse GD than Leeds to bridge in order to avoid the drop.

Un'kinbelievable.

 

[Goodisongang]

Weird this season, despite how horrific we were last season I always thought to myself we would stay up, mainly because the teams below us were woeful.

This season, we have without doubt the worst attackers in this league, it's countered by the fact we have a competent manager who's used to this sort of battle.

Im just not sure how it goes, I change my mind weekly based on our results.

Picking up 1 points from villa and forest makes me firmly believe we are going down though, there are no "easy" fixtures in the league but they were deffo two games you'd be looking at 3-6 points at

 

[davek]

Weird this season, despite how horrific we were last season I always thought to myself we would stay up, mainly because the teams below us were woeful.

This season, we have without doubt the worst attackers in this league, it's countered by the fact we have a competent manager who's used to this sort of battle.

Im just not sure how it goes, I change my mind weekly based on our results.

Picking up 1 points from villa and forest makes me firmly believe we are going down though, there are no "easy" fixtures in the league but they were deffo two games you'd be looking at 3-6 points at

I've been giving this some thought (the comparison between this relegation battle and last season's).

I actually think we've forgotten just how desperate it was last season. In the end we were reliant on the wheels falling off a resurgent Burnley to stay up. We looked gone until they started to sputter with 4 games to go.

And although the Richarlison 'difference' to last year compared with this is a factor, we conceded a PL worst ever total for us which landed us in it last season and we have better GD right now than last season.

5 and 6 games out last season we were in the bottom three and needed a small miracle. And we got it with unlikely back to back wins against Chelsea and Leicester. That was a much gloomier moment for us than now.

 

[mikel_88]

Weird this season, despite how horrific we were last season I always thought to myself we would stay up, mainly because the teams below us were woeful.

This season, we have without doubt the worst attackers in this league, it's countered by the fact we have a competent manager who's used to this sort of battle.

Im just not sure how it goes, I change my mind weekly based on our results.

Picking up 1 points from villa and forest makes me firmly believe we are going down though, there are no "easy" fixtures in the league but they were deffo two games you'd be looking at 3-6 points at

Same is still hard to call but getting garner patterson and dcl back give us more depth. Really hope we can try dcl gray as the two

 

[knowing your history]

I've been giving this some thought (the comparison between this relegation battle and last season's).

I actually think we've forgotten just how desperate it was last season. In the end we were reliant on the wheels falling off a resurgent Burnley to stay up. We looked gone until they started to sputter with 4 games to go.

And although the Richarlison 'difference' to last year compared with this is a factor, we conceded a PL worst ever total for us which landed us in it last season and we have better GD right now than last season.

5 and 6 games out last season we were in the bottom three and needed a small miracle. And we got it with unlikely back to back wins against Chelsea and Leicester. That was a much gloomier moment for us than now.

As I keep on saying the dynamic was different last season.

Norwich and Watford were basically gone at this point so only had to avoid one relegation spot. Don't think Norwich or Watford even got much over 21 points that currently Bournemouth are on with just under half a season to play.

Team were pretty much in the position Palace are in now. 4-5 points clear but hadn't won for ages. Then of course Burnley won a couple and panic stations set in.

I actually wonder what would've happen if the Burnley away game had stayed at 2-2. Losing that felt the end of the world but it actually did spark the team into realising what was going to happen and the end of season was pretty good with all the games bar Watford away that needed to be won were won (and surprise results like Chelsea at home).

This season the dynamic is totally different as 19th-20th could easily finish above 17th-16th and many of the run ins have a similar look. Southampton could I reckon win 4-5 games in the run in which wouldn't be great at all.

Add in lack of quality in final third compared to 12 months ago with Richi and Gordon playing huge parts in the run in and I agree with the post above, can see draws and the odd 1-0 win but I just don't think it will be enough this season.

 

[Bkk Andy]

We don’t need to get absolutely everyone out the door if we go down, it’s not just a case of selling who we can. It doesn’t make sense to extend Doucoure on his wages but there might not be many takers for Gana. There’s very little point in getting rid of Maupay or Dominic Calvert-Lewin for all we’d get for them, just hope they can bag goals in the championship which would both help us bounce back and pump their value.

There’s a big revenue drop but it’s not cataclysmic, we’ve pocketed 40 for Gordon and 25 for Kean already, likely would get 70 or so selling Pickford and Onana, and there’s a 45 parachute payment. That’s a lot coming in. With those two sales and Mina and Doucoure coming off it’s also about 20m in wages saved.

Beyond those four likely departures we may want to get other high earners off the books but it can be a bit more selective.

This is all true but we're also haemorrhaging money like there's no tomorrow in the premier league. If we don't massively reduce our outgoings, especially if we drop, it's an existential risk. The championship don't mess about with losses. They take action against clubs. Where we can't sell high earners it's likely we'll have to loan them out. We could probably get most of Gana's salary covered for example.

It's a very dangerous game to take a massive loss in the hope that we bounce straight back. If we failed, and many clubs do, we'd be selling everything from DCL to the chewing gum under the seats and we'd likely still face a points deduction.

 

[davek]

As I keep on saying the dynamic was different last season.

Norwich and Watford were basically gone at this point so only had to avoid one relegation spot. Don't think Norwich or Watford even got much over 21 points that currently Bournemouth are on with just under half a season to play.

Team were pretty much in the position Palace are in now. 4-5 points clear but hadn't won for ages. Then of course Burnley won a couple and panic stations set in.

I actually wonder what would've happen if the Burnley away game had stayed at 2-2. Losing that felt the end of the world but it actually did spark the team into realising what was going to happen and the end of season was pretty good with all the games bar Watford away that needed to be won were won (and surprise results like Chelsea at home).

This season the dynamic is totally different as 19th-20th could easily finish above 17th-16th and many of the run ins have a similar look. Southampton could I reckon win 4-5 games in the run in which wouldn't be great at all.

Add in lack of quality in final third compared to 12 months ago with Richi and Gordon playing huge parts in the run in and I agree with the post above, can see draws and the odd 1-0 win but I just don't think it will be enough this season.

I'm not sure that was the case. It was still all to play for.

Seasons 2021/22 and 2022/23 at roughly the same stage:

Last season

This season

\

We shipped 66 goals last season. That was why we were in the relegation scrap. This season we're there because we haven't scored enough. That's the different dynamic. And we're showing sign of adapting by getting a lot of players in the opposition box now to make up for the lack of striker firepower.

We just have to see how that balance between conceding and scoring rolls out.

 

[Bkk Andy]

Gueye is no-doubt one of the top earners, having come in from PSG but if he doesn't want to leave or no club wants to buy him, there's nothing we can do other than pay his +£100-120k a week. A well-run club would have a wage drop clause in the contract of a 33 year old midfielder, but this is Everton so who knows.

Wont be a club in the world daft enough to want Maupay. 1 goal in about 28 games or something. We'll be stuck with him, hoping he can get a few against lesser opposition. Dominic Calvert-Lewin if he proves his fitness in last 8-10 games maybe has one or two interested parties for a low fee, but he's probably another one we'll be stuck with picking up wages for little contribution.

Agreed. I think we'd have to loan some of the bigger earners out to get salaries off the books if we couldn't sell. The same as we've done with Alli and Gomes this year. As you say, hopefully the club put substantial reduction clauses in for the more recent signings.

 

[good times bad times]

As I keep on saying the dynamic was different last season.

Norwich and Watford were basically gone at this point so only had to avoid one relegation spot. Don't think Norwich or Watford even got much over 21 points that currently Bournemouth are on with just under half a season to play.

Team were pretty much in the position Palace are in now. 4-5 points clear but hadn't won for ages. Then of course Burnley won a couple and panic stations set in.

I actually wonder what would've happen if the Burnley away game had stayed at 2-2. Losing that felt the end of the world but it actually did spark the team into realising what was going to happen and the end of season was pretty good with all the games bar Watford away that needed to be won were won (and surprise results like Chelsea at home).

This season the dynamic is totally different as 19th-20th could easily finish above 17th-16th and many of the run ins have a similar look. Southampton could I reckon win 4-5 games in the run in which wouldn't be great at all.

Add in lack of quality in final third compared to 12 months ago with Richi and Gordon playing huge parts in the run in and I agree with the post above, can see draws and the odd 1-0 win but I just don't think it will be enough this season.

Yep I'd feel much better if there were at least one if not two teams below who were almost cast and adrift and it was only the mathematics that were keeping them up. So if we do win a few games there is no likelihood it would be enough as the teams below us could easily do the same and get out of it.

The outlook would be so much different if we had an actual fit proper striker though. This can't be emphasised enough.

 

[degsy]

That will be us after we get 1 point from the next 4 games. I think we'll be 7 points adrift by then and no chance at all of clawing it back.

We'll be pasting Bournemouth 4, 5, or 6 Nil, somebody - maybe Bournemouth, maybe somebody elsewhere, will score a 96 min controversial VAR goal and we go down by 1GD...oh and as is usual, it will be their only ever PL goal they ever score.

Whatever happens, it will be the ultimate Everton That.

 

[Swartzy]

It's just Befitting that as we suffer through this treacherous battle, Half the fan base are also gripped with a new tv series to hit our shores, so aptly called 'The Last Of Us' Now that is just Sod's Law...

 

[Gareth Gibson]

I've been giving this some thought (the comparison between this relegation battle and last season's).

I actually think we've forgotten just how desperate it was last season. In the end we were reliant on the wheels falling off a resurgent Burnley to stay up. We looked gone until they started to sputter with 4 games to go.

And although the Richarlison 'difference' to last year compared with this is a factor, we conceded a PL worst ever total for us which landed us in it last season and we have better GD right now than last season.

5 and 6 games out last season we were in the bottom three and needed a small miracle. And we got it with unlikely back to back wins against Chelsea and Leicester. That was a much gloomier moment for us than now.

Brilliant post.

No one in their right minds thought we had a chance of getting out of the bottom 3 with just 6 games to go last season. Not with Burnley in the ascendency and the likes of Chelsea and Leicester and Arsenal still to play.

There's a lot of talk of RS fans having a huge relegation party outside BMD on the final day of the season. We are really playing into their hands with this absurd talk of already being down. If we were 10 points adrift I would get it, but as things stand we are just one point away from safety. And a few weeks ago we beat the league leaders.

Anything is possible as long as we get behind the players and the manager in the same way that we did towards the end of last season.

 

[MikeH72]

Brilliant post.

No one in their right minds thought we had a chance of getting out of the bottom 3 with just 6 games to go last season. Not with Burnley in the ascendency and the likes of Chelsea and Leicester and Arsenal still to play.

There's a lot of talk of RS fans having a huge relegation party outside BMD on the final day of the season. We are really playing into their hands with this absurd talk of already being down. If we were 10 points adrift I would get it, but as things stand we are just one point away from safety. And a few weeks ago we beat the league leaders.

Anything is possible as long as we get behind the players and the manager in the same way that we did towards the end of last season.

What?

 

[gorgeousgeorgeEFC]

Brilliant post.

No one in their right minds thought we had a chance of getting out of the bottom 3 with just 6 games to go last season. Not with Burnley in the ascendency and the likes of Chelsea and Leicester and Arsenal still to play.

There's a lot of talk of RS fans having a huge relegation party outside BMD on the final day of the season. We are really playing into their hands with this absurd talk of already being down. If we were 10 points adrift I would get it, but as things stand we are just one point away from safety. And a few weeks ago we beat the league leaders.

Anything is possible as long as we get behind the players and the manager in the same way that we did towards the end of last season.

I completely concur.

The media have already written us off, as have some blues. We are literally one point away from being out of the bottom 3 FFS!

 

[Rooney_Tunes]

I completely concur.

The media have already written us off, as have some blues. We are literally one point away from being out of the bottom 3 FFS!

One of two things will happen at the end of the season.

We will either remain in the Premier League or be relegated to the Championship.

If you accept that one of those two will happen, you'll be fine.