Relegation 2022/23

[bitter-no-better]

If Leicester lose or draw tomorrow then we have to take advantage next Saturday. If we beat Wolves and go 4 clear of Leeds and Leicester that would deflate them going into their games sunday/monday. West Ham still need 1 point so it wont be a nothing game V Leeds.

 

[davek]

We are talking about 4 of the worst teams in the league who have all won about 7 or 8 max games out of the last 36. 4 points out of the final 2 games is a tall order for any of us. Biggest laugh is how many people are saying that Leeds will get 4 points because they now have Gravy in charge. They are still dreadful and have got 1 point out of the last 2 games.

It actually wouldn't even be a surprise if all 4 teams lost both games. Good chance someone is staying up on goal difference this season it is going to be that close.

Said as much myself.

Wins for all of us down there are like hens teeth.

There'll be maybe 2 or 3 wins left between us, Leicester, Leeds and Forest. Get one of those and your team are right in business.

 

[Kev The Rat]

The danger is if we don't beat Wolves and then Leeds beat West Ham then we're relying on Leeds and Forest's results last day.

The goal difference is only 9 between West Ham and Leeds (8 effectively because of goals scored). Leeds win by 2 goals then it's 4 going into the last day. West Ham won't want to go into the last day not mathematically safe.

Yeah I’d pretty much say that the chances of Leeds beating West Ham are maybe slightly better than us beating Wolves

 

[maccavennie]

If Leicester lose or draw tomorrow then we have to take advantage next Saturday. If we beat Wolves and go 4 clear of Leeds and Leicester that would deflate them going into their games sunday/monday. West Ham still need 1 point so it wont be a nothing game V Leeds.

Yes I didn't realise next weekend has us playing first before Leeds and Leicester. What a fantastic opportunity that is to demoralise them both ( basing that on Leicester getting stuffed by the rs tomorrow )

 

[davek]

If Leicester lose or draw tomorrow then we have to take advantage next Saturday. If we beat Wolves and go 4 clear of Leeds and Leicester that would deflate them going into their games sunday/monday. West Ham still need 1 point so it wont be a nothing game V Leeds.

Going into the B'mouth game knowing we have our destiny in our own hands is what it's all about now.

The only way it gets better than that is if Leicester lose against Liverpool and Newcastle (good possibility), Leeds lose against West Ham (good possibility), and we beat Wolves.

That's a bit of a stretch tbh.

 

[luuk_deventer]

Have people really thought about the ridiculous combination of results that would have to happen for West Ham to go down

Without being mathematically safe, they are as safe as they can be. If Leeds and Leicester do not beat the heavily weakened teams that Moyes will field (as he did today), they both deserve relegation.

 

[davek]

In all this let's not forget that we entered the Brighton and City games pretty much convinced that we're down unless we got a couple of points out of them. We got 3 and if Liverpool avoid defeat at Leicester it's handed us the box seat to get out of this.

We hoped we'd get a point out of City but pretty much knew it was a forlorn task against the best team in the world right now.

 

[blue to the bone]

Well no despite what people think here I’d be more than happy to be proved wrong

Wham

 

[davek]

View attachment 210878

Apologies if this has already been posted, but it's reassuring to see that cold, hard statistical modelling has us as the least likely team to be relegated of the four after the weekend.

...especially after one of the relegation spots has already been taken up!

 

[davek]

….latest relegation odds (Hills);

Leicester 1/3
Leeds 4/11
Everton 9/4
Forest 9/4

...any news on S'ton?

lol

 

[balggy]

Everyone keeps on asking what West Ham have to play for, worrying about a Leeds walkover.

But what do Wolves have to play for? In reality we both have very comparable fixtures. They are both teams who up to a few weeks ago were in a relegation fight with us.

 

[steven]

In all this let's not forget that we entered the Brighton and City games pretty much convinced that we're down unless we got a couple of points out of them. We got 3 and if Liverpool avoid defeat at Leicester it's handed us the box seat to get out of this.

We hoped we'd get a point out of City but pretty much knew it was a forlorn task against the best team in the world right now.

Yep. The main issue today for me was not the loss but the injury to DCL and to a lesser extent mykolenko.

With Coleman out, and Godfrey (who is a more passable lb than rb) leaves us very short.

If we had that team against Brighton out next two games I’d be confident…as it is, I think we might need a minor miracle. We are just so much poorer with certain players out.

With options limited I think Keane will come back in v wolves and we go 3 5 2.

Pickford
Patterson Keane Mina tark McNeill
Iwobi gana garner
Doucoure
DCL(grey if not fit)

Hope it’s enough.

 

[balggy]

Paddy power has us favourites to stay up

 

[luuk_deventer]

Everyone keeps on asking what West Ham have to play for, worrying about a Leeds walkover.

But what do Wolves have to play for? In reality we both have very comparable fixtures. They are both teams who up to a few weeks ago were in a relegation fight with us.

Wolves have had nothing to play for in over a month and have still beaten Chelsea, Villa, Brentford and Palace at home. They are on a 4 match winning run at home (which hopefully, we end!)

West Ham is definitely the easier game.

 

[davek]

FWIW

IMO...assuming Leicester dont beat Liverpool...final day positions before KO:

Forest 34 pts
Everton 33 pts
Leeds 32 pts
Leicester 30 pts
(R) S'ton 24 pts

No team safe but all in the mix with GD working against some teams but not others.

TBF, I think it was always coming down to the final day once we got this close to the season's end.