I think low rankings are also factored at a lower value. So let's say England beats Luxembourg...they don't get a ton of points. But if Luxembourg beat England they get full value.
The point I am making is that if Ghana and Senegal play they are already at a disadvantage. Or is Japan and South Korea play...or USA and Mexico.
On June 10th, the FIFA council announced that it would overhaul the way FIFA ranks international teams. The new FIFA ranking system comes after more than two years of studies and reviews, and could have major implications for international soccer.
The way FIFA has ranked international teams in the past has been heavily criticized. Its weighting of friendly matches encouraged teams to play less friendlies and unfairly penalized the hosts of international competitions to the extent that FIFA currently ranks Russia as the weakest team at the 2018 World Cup. It also gave more weight to UEFA and CONMEBOL, and less weight to the other confederations, leading to the top fifty places being full of European and South American teams.
FIFA’s decision to change the way rankings are measured should end some of these problems. The new method, which is based on the Elo method of creating sports rankings, adds or subtracts points based on the result of a match rather than calculating an average. The amount added (or subtracted) is calculated based on the strength of the opponent and the importance of the match.
The new system avoids many of the old errors. For example, the rankings will change game-by-game so FIFA doesn’t have to select an exact date for making the latest rankings. This should help avoid problems like when Tunisia, rather than Egypt, were put in Pot One during one of the 2018 World Cup qualification rounds because they were ranked higher on the day that the FIFA rankings were calculated, even though Egypt would have been in Pot One if a slightly different date had been used.
Teams also will find it more difficult to rig the system, for example by playing very few friendly matches. Previously, some countries like Wales and Romania played hardly any friendly games in the year before FIFA decided the pots for qualifying groups in an attempt to ensure that they were in the highest pot possible.
Each country will start the new system in its current position in the FIFA rankings, but as the new ranking system is based on the Elo system, it is likely that teams will move towards their Elo position over time. Towards the top of the FIFA rankings, Spain, currently ranked tenth by FIFA but third by Elo, are likely to climb a few places while Switzerland, ranked sixth by FIFA and 14th by Elo, will fall.
With finals weighted more heavily, teams like Chile and Italy who failed to qualify for Russia 2018 will likely fall in the rankings. The top teams from Asia, such as Iran and South Korea will also climb in the rankings over time due to the removal of the regional weightings.
As the new system doesn’t reward teams for avoiding friendly matches, it will most likely result in more friendly games. In the long term, the increased number of friendly matches should improve the quality of international soccer.
Friendly matches are derided by some fans, but they give teams the chance to blood young players, which can help a country unearth new talents. They are also a source of revenue for some soccer associations, so the ability for a country to play more friendly matches without denting its FIFA ranking could make the new ranking system one of FIFA’s more popular decisions.
The rankings could also affect the make-up of the Premier League as the English work permit system is based on FIFA rankings. Young players from the top Asian nations may move directly to England rather than to other European leagues as they will be able to acquire work permits to play in England. Conversely, players from weaker European nations that require work permits for England may find it more difficult as their countries fall in the rankings.
