NFL 2022 Season

[Kev The Rat]

Let me take a look again and get back to you.

If you're saying that Mahomes mostly wins after establishing a double digit lead then... well, yes. But I don't see what point you're trying to make there.

Most teams who establish a double digit lead in a game will go on to win it - hence the surprise on the odd occasions where a team LOSING by more than ten at the half comes back to win.

If your point is that Mahomes is 14-9 in games where the Chiefs have been BEHIND by double digits then ok, that's impressive... but not relevant to either of the Bengals games we were discussing because in both of those games the Chiefs had solid leads in the first half iirc.

Yes he’s 14-9 when losing by by 10. The only player in history with a winning record when losing by 10 in games.

What I’m saying also is that Mahomes wins 90% of games when leading by 10.

That’s 9/10 games, which is where I would argue the 1 in 10 is the lightning in a bottle type stuff. Which you’ve basically admitted to in your post there btw. And the Bengals have caught it twice out of 5 total which is outrageous.

 

[Tree13]

I'm not actually a Niners fan, just calling what I am seeing. If their defence is reasonably healthy and they have all their weapons, it's very hard to see how any team stops them. Bengals are great though, I reckon they'd beat the Chiefs again if Chase is playing

Apologies, somehow reached the conclusion you were a Niner.

They do look like they're hitting form at the right time, plus the Rams are falling away badly. Eagles v Niners though, or Cowboys v Niners: both too close to call I think.

I don't see Chase being enough to help the Bengals beat the Chiefs this time. The Cincinnati OL is still 60% bad, Mixon's hurt, Higgins is hurt and the Chiefs D is improved compared to last year. Fingers crossed, but Collins has been a failure at RT so the OL is still too mediocre.

 

[Tree13]

Yes he’s 14-9 when losing by by 10. The only play in history with a winning record when losing by 10 in games.

What I’m saying also is that Mahomes wins 90% of games when leading by 10.

That’s 9/10 games, which is where I would argue the 1 in 10 is the lightning in a bottle type stuff. And the Bengals have caught it twice out of 5 total which is outrageous.

Right, got you. Apologies for the misunderstanding. 14-9 when losing by ten is great.

It's also irrelevant to the conversation about why Mahomes lost twice in a month against the same team when he was LEADING in both games. That's why I presumed you were saying he was 14-9 when AHEAD by ten, although I should have double checked. My bad.

If you're happy shrugging off any loss where you were ahead by ten as just luck, you go ahead. If you STILL shrug it off as luck when it happens twice in a month and costs you an AFC championship... Wow.

 

[Kev The Rat]

Right, got you. Apologies for the misunderstanding. 14-9 when losing by ten is great.

It's also irrelevant to the conversation about why Mahomes lost twice in a month against the same team when he was LEADING in both games. That's why I presumed you were saying he was 14-9 when AHEAD by ten, although I should have double checked. My bad.

If you're happy shrugging off any loss where you were ahead by ten as just luck, you go ahead. If you STILL shrug it off as luck when it happens twice in a month and costs you an AFC championship... Wow.

Both games were very close and involved the Chiefs melting down at points, whether it be failing to sack Burrow about 10 times in the title game or Mahomes refusing to pass to a wide open Kelce and Hill from the 3 in the last minute of regulation. You can go and find videos of it and see it. It’s crazy. And the only time I’ve ever seen him play so strangely.

On the other hand if Chase is back for you against us in a couple of weeks I expect it to be a close game again

 

[Tree13]

Both games were very close and involved the Chiefs melting down at points, whether it be failing to sack Burrow about 10 times in the title game or Mahomes refusing to pass to a wide open Kelce and Hill from the 3 in the last minute of regulation. You can go and find videos of it and see it. It’s crazy. And the only time I’ve ever seen him play so strangely.

On the other hand if Chase is back for you against us in a couple of weeks I expect it to be a close game again

Hahaha yes I got the distinct impression Burrow was not keen on continuing to get pulverised behind that abysmal line. He did a spectacular job of avoiding the pass rush!

What I find strange is the idea that anyone could watch Mahomes' performances in those two games and decide that he just CHOSE to ignore open receivers. I mean, you rate the guy as the best ever but aren't you also calling his professionalism into question there? You're essentially implying the type of behaviour that would trigger a match-rigging investigation.

I just think it's far more plausible that Lou Anarumo (Bengals d-coordinator) put together a great defensive scheme and managed to leverage some weaknesses in a young QB's coverage reads - it is the hardest part of QB play, after all. The weird thing is that even an average running game would have beaten Cincinnati in both those games, hence my praise for Reid FINALLY starting to establish a run game.

 

[Pittsburgh Footy]

I’ve said the niners are the best team in the nfc and I expect them to make the Super Bowl.

As for the afc I can see Allen playing it safe to make sure he doesn’t lose games like against Minnesota but that actually may take away from the Bills as much as helps them. I’ll watch them play Detroit tomorrow to see if he plays conservatively.

Buffalo is gonna put up 45 tomorrow

 

[Pittsburgh Footy]

Hahaha yes I got the distinct impression Burrow was not keen on continuing to get pulverised behind that abysmal line. He did a spectacular job of avoiding the pass rush!

What I find strange is the idea that anyone could watch Mahomes' performances in those two games and decide that he just CHOSE to ignore open receivers. I mean, you rate the guy as the best ever but aren't you also calling his professionalism into question there? You're essentially implying the type of behaviour that would trigger a match-rigging investigation.

I just think it's far more plausible that Lou Anarumo (Bengals d-coordinator) put together a great defensive scheme and managed to leverage some weaknesses in a young QB's coverage reads - it is the hardest part of QB play, after all. The weird thing is that even an average running game would have beaten Cincinnati in both those games, hence my praise for Reid FINALLY starting to establish a run game.

Cincy caught lightning in a bottle last season, and also as a team put up historic 3rd quarter numbers. Tough to replicate

I'd be surprised if they make the final 4 in the AFC this year - they still obviously have talent, but that OL is gonna catch up with them sooner rather than later, as well as luck

 

[Kev The Rat]

Hahaha yes I got the distinct impression Burrow was not keen on continuing to get pulverised behind that abysmal line. He did a spectacular job of avoiding the pass rush!

What I find strange is the idea that anyone could watch Mahomes' performances in those two games and decide that he just CHOSE to ignore open receivers. I mean, you rate the guy as the best ever but aren't you also calling his professionalism into question there? You're essentially implying the type of behaviour that would trigger a match-rigging investigation.

I just think it's far more plausible that Lou Anarumo (Bengals d-coordinator) put together a great defensive scheme and managed to leverage some weaknesses in a young QB's coverage reads - it is the hardest part of QB play, after all. The weird thing is that even an average running game would have beaten Cincinnati in both those games, hence my praise for Reid FINALLY starting to establish a run game.

I’m saying he didn’t throw to multiple open receivers from the 3 yard line and instead ran around until he got sacked.

If you don’t believe they were wide open go and find videos of it on YouTube which shows a Birds Eye view.

I’ve NEVER seen Mahomes do that and I don’t know why. I’m not giving credit to the Bengals d coordinator for dropping 9 back and Mahomes refusing to throw to the open receivers in the end zone, sorry.

 

[Prevenger17]

Buffalo is gonna put up 45 tomorrow

And it will say nothing about them because the Detroit D is trash. Tbh, it's always hard to say who will win a Superbowl, because there are so many variables and factors that can change a teams course before the business end. But I would put my left testicle on the prediction that the Bills will come nowhere near to winning it

 

[Tree13]

Cincy caught lightning in a bottle last season, and also as a team put up historic 3rd quarter numbers. Tough to replicate

I'd be surprised if they make the final 4 in the AFC this year - they still obviously have talent, but that OL is gonna catch up with them sooner rather than later, as well as luck

The Cincinnati season was ridiculous. So lucky to see so many players stay fit and healthy all year, especially Joe Burrow. The amount of sacks he took behind that OL was a record, and by some distinct margin.

Fixing the roster will take more than one season, and the "reward" for a winning record when you're in the AFC North is the most brutal schedule imaginable in the next season. By my maths we need to run the table now just to get a wildcard!

 

[Prevenger17]

Apologies, somehow reached the conclusion you were a Niner.

I'm very high on them in my posts tbf. But no, I don't really have a team. The closest thing I have to an allegiance is wide receiver and probable steroid pounder, Deandre Hopkins. I have his Texans and Arizona jersey and have had him in every fantasy team I have ever owned

 

[Tree13]

I’m saying he didn’t throw to multiple open receivers from the 3 yard line and instead ran around until he got sacked.

If you don’t believe they were wide open go and find videos of it on YouTube which shows a Birds Eye view.

I’ve NEVER seen Mahomes do that and I don’t know why. I’m not giving credit to the Bengals d coordinator for dropping 9 back and Mahomes refusing to throw to the open receivers in the end zone, sorry.

Kev this is a good example of where, with respect, you're going off the reservation.

IF Mahomes is the best QB ever (and for the record, he is not) then HOW ON EARTH does he fail to see multiple open receivers from less than five yards out?

I maintain Mahomes just isn't as good as you think he is. But let's put that aside and go with your theory.

The question is therefore: why did the best QB in history not throw to one of several open receivers on a key play to win an AFC championship game?

Break the question down:

Were the receivers, in fact, open? The key here is not whether I think they were open, or YOU think they were open or indeed if they were open when reviewing it from birds-eye view footage months later. The birds-eye view is the biggest red herring here, because the QB doesn't have that view available to him during play. The key is did the QB at that moment think they were open?

If he DID think they were open then why did he choose not to throw the ball? Whatever answer we can find to this question is troubling. If he IS the best QB ever and he DID think they were open, then what possible reason could he have for not throwing? We're in the match-fixing realm now.

If he DIDN'T think they were open then he was right not to throw, but WHY did he think they weren't open?

a) because they weren't, the coverage was good; or

b) they WERE open, but Mahomes misread the coverage.

If it's a), then we have to credit the defence for good play. If it's b) then the D gets some credit for disguising the coverage and the QB gets some criticism for making an error.

You're refusing all of the above and saying its c)... but you cannot explain or even identify what c) is. That, I'm afraid, is absurd.

This is no longer football analysis (but I maintain you aren't the expert you think you are). This is now just logic.

What we know is the Bengals came out in nickel most of the game, doubled Hill most of the game, rushed 3 DL most of the game and played a variety of zones on most passing downs. This is a deliberate gameplan, designed to force the QB to go through his progressions and find the open receiver. We know it's deliberate because the same D did the same thing four weeks beforehand.

We also know that Mahomes threw two picks and lost the game from a winning position. Performing more poorly than in the game game 4 weeks earlier.

He's either the best QB in the world ever ever and the D just outwitted him on the day (twice), or he's NOT the best QB the world has ever seen and the D was too much for him (twice). Or he's the best QB in the world ever ever and the D couldn't stop him but he didn't want to win so chose to lose (twice). Or he threw the game. Twice. (ridiculous suggestion).

The gymnastics you have to go through to say "none of the above, it must be some other explanation that even I, the contrarian, cannot identify" is remarkable.

It all boils down to your overzealous insistence that Mahomes is utterly amazing. If you won't deviate from that initial position then it's no surprise that you cannot formulate an explanation for his failures. And they MUST be his failures, because according to you those receivers were open!

 

[Kev The Rat]

Kev this is a good example of where, with respect, you're going off the reservation.

IF Mahomes is the best QB ever (and for the record, he is not) then HOW ON EARTH does he fail to see multiple open receivers from less than five yards out?

I maintain Mahomes just isn't as good as you think he is. But let's put that aside and go with your theory.

The question is therefore: why did the best QB in history not throw to one of several open receivers on a key play to win an AFC championship game?

Break the question down:

Were the receivers, in fact, open? The key here is not whether I think they were open, or YOU think they were open or indeed if they were open when reviewing it from birds-eye view footage months later. The birds-eye view is the biggest red herring here, because the QB doesn't have that view available to him during play. The key is did the QB at that moment think they were open?

If he DID think they were open then why did he choose not to throw the ball? Whatever answer we can find to this question is troubling. If he IS the best QB ever and he DID think they were open, then what possible reason could he have for not throwing? We're in the match-fixing realm now.

If he DIDN'T think they were open then he was right not to throw, but WHY did he think they weren't open?

a) because they weren't, the coverage was good; or

b) they WERE open, but Mahomes misread the coverage.

If it's a), then we have to credit the defence for good play. If it's b) then the D gets some credit for disguising the coverage and the QB gets some criticism for making an error.

You're refusing all of the above and saying its c)... but you cannot explain or even identify what c) is. That, I'm afraid, is absurd.

This is no longer football analysis (but I maintain you aren't the expert you think you are). This is now just logic.

What we know is the Bengals came out in nickel most of the game, doubled Hill most of the game, rushed 3 DL most of the game and played a variety of zones on most passing downs. This is a deliberate gameplan, designed to force the QB to go through his progressions and find the open receiver. We know it's deliberate because the same D did the same thing four weeks beforehand.

We also know that Mahomes threw two picks and lost the game from a winning position. Performing more poorly than in the game game 4 weeks earlier.

He's either the best QB in the world ever ever and the D just outwitted him on the day (twice), or he's NOT the best QB the world has ever seen and the D was too much for him (twice). Or he's the best QB in the world ever ever and the D couldn't stop him but he didn't want to win so chose to lose (twice). Or he threw the game. Twice. (ridiculous suggestion).

The gymnastics you have to go through to say "none of the above, it must be some other explanation that even I, the contrarian, cannot identify" is remarkable.

It all boils down to your overzealous insistence that Mahomes is utterly amazing. If you won't deviate from that initial position then it's no surprise that you cannot formulate an explanation for his failures. And they MUST be his failures, because according to you those receivers were open!

the fact that you are debating a couple of games out of Mahomes entire career, in an attempt to define him as a player is what concerns me most.

The reality is he has the highest rating ever of any qb, the best w-l percentage, has been to the last 4 afc title games and 2 super bowls, and is on course to win his second nfl mvp. In addition as you are well aware, its more or less accepted by coaches, players analysts that he is the best, and more than a few respected coaches/analysts have called him the best ever. By that we are not denigrating Brady's accomplishments, but he is just that - the most accomplished QB ever.

with all that in mind, I have no idea why he performed the way he did on that day, and the failures you describe when looking at his entire career to date amount to a very minescule amount.

 

[Tree13]

the fact that you are debating a couple of games out of Mahomes entire career, in an attempt to define him as a player is what concerns me most.

The reality is he has the highest rating ever of any qb, the best w-l percentage, has been to the last 4 afc title games and 2 super bowls, and is on course to win his second nfl mvp. In addition as you are well aware, its more or less accepted by coaches, players analysts that he is the best, and more than a few respected coaches/analysts have called him the best ever. By that we are not denigrating Brady's accomplishments, but he is just that - the most accomplished QB ever.

with all that in mind, I have no idea why he performed the way he did on that day, and the failures you describe when looking at his entire career to date amount to a very minescule amount.

I'm not "attempting to define him as a player". That would be absurd, because he's only halfway through his pro career (If that. He might play for another ten seasons!)

I'm providing a cogent, detailed counter-argument to your over-excitable suggestion that a guy with 22,000 yards and one ring in six pro seasons to his name is the best QB of all time. He's not. He's not as good as Brady, he's not as good as Montana. He's got all the tools to overtake them in time, but he's not done it YET. Will he do so? If Kansas keeps that OL performing at its current level and maintains an above-average D, then yes he has a chance. But anointing him as having done so already is just silly, because SO many things would have to go exactly right for so many seasons that it's pretty improbable.

I don't dispute your stats. He DOES have the highest regular-season passer rating, the best W-L-T percentage so far. He has been to four AFC championship games and two superbowls. All true.

But look at his opposition. He plays six easy divisional games per year - he SHOULD have a very high W-L-T percentage. He SHOULD get to the playoffs every year. The test is how well does he handle the better teams, the playoff contenders.

How many of those four AFC championship games did he win? Two.

How many Superbowls did he win? One.

Who's got the highest passer rating in the play-offs? Josh Allen, 106.6. - Here

Ben Roethlisberger is a more successful QB at this point in time. So's Bart Starr, Roger Staubach, Troy Aikman, Phil Simms, Johnny Unitas, Terry Bradshaw, John Elway, Peyton Manning, and Steve Young - compare their records. And no-one would argue that any of them is better than Brady or Montana, so how can Mahomes be?

Realistically it's going to be at least three more years before he can overtake Aikman, Simms and Young - 12,000 passing yards and three more Super Bowl wins would do that, giving Mahomes just over 34,000 yards and four rings in total. Hypothetically. He'd have more rings than Elway, Manning and Roethlisberger too IF he gets that far, but he'd still be tens of THOUSANDS of yards behind them in career passing.

Give it another two years years after that and he MIGHT get to the stage where he can be compared to Montana... if he somehow achieves everything listed above, he'll still have to pass for ANOTHER 7,000 yards and win at least one MORE Superbowl to overtake Montana.

But to recap, in order to achieve this he'd have to win four more superbowls and throw for 19,000 yards... in five years. And that would add up to 41,000 yards and 5 superbowl wins in 11 seasons.

And if you really, honestly think that's achievable.... Brady is ANOTHER 47,000 yards and two MORE Superbowl wins ahead of that. And HE'S still playing.

One day we might all recognise Mahome as the best QB who ever played.

One day. Maybe.

But not yet.

Personally I think he'll end his career with three rings. And that will be more than enough, alongside his career yards and passer rating, to have him comfortably in the top ten of all QBs in history. If he gets four rings I'll agree he's in the top three of all time, with his yards and passer rating very probably giving him the edge over Montana.

But Brady's going to finish up with around 90,000 yards and at least SEVEN rings.

Mahomes is currently on 22,000 yards and one ring.

Long way to go for a kid who can't find open receivers three yards out from the goal line, facing a 3-man pass rush.

 

[TheBigIguana]

I'm not actually a Niners fan, just calling what I am seeing. If their defence is reasonably healthy and they have all their weapons, it's very hard to see how any team stops them. Bengals are great though, I reckon they'd beat the Chiefs again if Chase is playing

He's on the 49ers and wearing #10