NFL 2021

[SerenityNigh]

I'm no NFL scout, but I agree; maybe they'll trade up for a 1st tier WR in the draft like someone mentioned above. All I can figure is they will add as many WRs as possible and see which ones stick, but that's an odd way to build a team.

Upon reflection, I've changed my mind: KC knows exactly what they are doing, they're trying to build the Patriots of the midwest. They think they have a generational QB and are going to stick as many good players around him to build a very deep team, but aren't going to top load on other talent.

 

[Tree13]

I'm no NFL scout, but I agree; maybe they'll trade up for a 1st tier WR in the draft like someone mentioned above. All I can figure is they will add as many WRs as possible and see which ones stick, but that's an odd way to build a team.

Yep, all the more so when you consider that Mahomes' contract means they are definitely in "win-now" mode, with an ever-diminishing window of opportunity. Two seasons from now they could find themselves letting him go and trying to draft a new QB.

I wonder if Trey McBride (TE, Colorado State) will be of interest to Kansas City in the draft? They have a ton of picks and he's a very dominant receiving TE: they could run a chunk of double-TE sets, give the run game a boost, incorporate a truckload of play-action into their passing offense and take some of the pressure off Kelce.

 

[SerenityNigh]

Yep, all the more so when you consider that Mahomes' contract means they are definitely in "win-now" mode, with an ever-diminishing window of opportunity. Two seasons from now they could find themselves letting him go and trying to draft a new QB.

I wonder if Trey McBride (TE, Colorado State) will be of interest to Kansas City in the draft? They have a ton of picks and he's a very dominant receiving TE: they could run a chunk of double-TE sets, give the run game a boost, incorporate a truckload of play-action into their passing offense and take some of the pressure off Kelce.

When NE had Gronk and the murderer in double TE sets that was one of the scariest offenses I remember recently. Nobody has the personnel to handle that. You'd need at least 3 guys who are either hybrid S or hybrid LB to rotate in and out, unless you have a freak Edge who can drop into space and cover short.

But I don't think they'll cut Mahomes, I think they'll continue to retool around him if the set of guys they have in place doesn't fit.

 

[Tree13]

When NE had Gronk and the murderer in double TE sets that was one of the scariest offenses I remember recently. Nobody has the personnel to handle that. You'd need at least 3 guys who are either hybrid S or hybrid LB to rotate in and out, unless you have a freak Edge who can drop into space and cover short.

But I don't think they'll cut Mahomes, I think they'll continue to retool around him if the set of guys they have in place doesn't fit.

Ah perhaps I wasn't specific enough. I don't think they'll ever cut Mahomes, but I can see them being unable to keep him if/when he becomes a free agent.

I agree that Kansas would be wise to continue to try to give him more weapons, I just can't see how letting Hill walk fits in with that plan. All they've done is weaken their position regarding the draft: they're going to have to go WR in the first round, and quite possibly might have to trade up to do it.

That double TE set the Patriots had was disgustingly effective. I'm actually surprised we haven't really seen anyone else try to employ a similar tactic.

 

[SerenityNigh]

Ah perhaps I wasn't specific enough. I don't think they'll ever cut Mahomes, but I can see them being unable to keep him if/when he becomes a free agent.

I agree that Kansas would be wise to continue to try to give him more weapons, I just can't see how letting Hill walk fits in with that plan. All they've done is weaken their position regarding the draft: they're going to have to go WR in the first round, and quite possibly might have to trade up to do it.

That double TE set the Patriots had was disgustingly effective. I'm actually surprised we haven't really seen anyone else try to employ a similar tactic.

I think he's locked up until 2031 or so, it's a long contract. Not that he can't be moved, but both sides are wed together with that sort of contract.

 

[Kev The Rat]

I think he's locked up until 2031 or so, it's a long contract. Not that he can't be moved, but both sides are wed together with that sort of contract.

Absolutely no chance they’ll move him on. Hill was only traded because his value was high and only likely to decrease.

Mahomes is about 10 years away from being worth less than Watson or Wilson.

Back in the real world, what you will see is a possibly even more devastating Mahomes next season as he utilises his array of new weapons rather than force the ball to Hill, come what may. He simply doesn’t need a Hill type to dominate and this season will prove it.

Vegas still has them neck and neck with Buffalo as Super Bowl favourites so they’re unconcerned by this.

In terms of what they’re going to do offensively - Reid is not Belichick - he’s an offensive entertainer and with Mahomes the idea that he’s going bore everyone to death like Belichick did is ridiculous.

 

[Tree13]

I think he's locked up until 2031 or so, it's a long contract. Not that he can't be moved, but both sides are wed together with that sort of contract.

Blimey. "Long" is putting it mildly.

I looked it up: 2025 is the first year they will seriously evaluate Mahomes' ongoing prospects. His dead cap space in that season is just over $4.3m versus a cap hit of $46.3m... pretty sensible drafting by the Chiefs' contract team, because he'll be 30 by then and typically scrambling QBs start to deteriorate rapidly at that point. Perhaps he can develop into a pocket passer over the next two seasons - he'll get plenty of practice against 8-man coverages this year!

Mahomes' contract

 

[Tree13]

Absolutely no chance they’ll move him on. Hill was only traded because his value was high and only likely to decrease.

Mahomes is about 10 years away from being worth less than Watson or Wilson.

Back in the real world, what you will see is a possibly even more devastating Mahomes next season as he utilises his array of new weapons rather than force the ball to Hill, come what may. He simply doesn’t need a Hill type to dominate and this season will prove it.

Vegas still has them neck and neck with Buffalo as Super Bowl favourites so they’re unconcerned by this.

In terms of what they’re going to do offensively - Reid is not Belichick - he’s an offensive entertainer and with Mahomes the idea that he’s going bore everyone to death like Belichick did is ridiculous.

Reid has won two superbowls in his 30-year NFL coaching career, and one of those was as an assistant coach. Belichick has won six as head coach in the last 22 years. Reid is definitely not Belichick.

The AFC west is going to be brutal this year. Three teams have got better in FA, but the Chiefs haven't - they NEED to ace the draft because their schedule is tough - Titans, Bills and Rams all coming to Arrowhead, and road games against Tampa, the 49ers and Cincinnati. No room there to drop any in-division games at all.

 

[Kev The Rat]

Reid has won two superbowls in his 30-year NFL coaching career, and one of those was as an assistant coach. Belichick has won six as head coach in the last 22 years. Reid is definitely not Belichick.

The AFC west is going to be brutal this year. Three teams have got better in FA, but the Chiefs haven't - they NEED to ace the draft because their schedule is tough - Titans, Bills and Rams all coming to Arrowhead, and road games against Tampa, the 49ers and Cincinnati. No room there to drop any in-division games at all.

I was discussing Reid’s offensive philosophy not how many Super Bowls he’s won so I’m not sure why you’re turning the statement into something else.

Reid has never and will not go run heavy with multi TE sets. He has the most gifted QB in the game, he will utilise him.

As for his success, he has the highest winning percentage of any active coach bar Belichick and has never had a losing season in Kansas City and has made the playoffs multiple times with far worse teams than he has now.

I repeat my view that adding a first round receiver or trading for a proven veteran to JuJu and MVS - one of which will definitely happen - will have improved the offense considerably.

 

[Prevenger17]

The Chiefs are going to be pants this year. Hurtling backwards while everyone else moves forwards

 

[Tree13]

The Chiefs are going to be pants this year. Hurtling backwards while everyone else moves forwards

Pants is a little harsh. Mahomes' absurd contract numbers have started to cause a problem but iirc the Chiefs have Scott Pioli in their front office - if anyone can cobble together a competitive roster on a limited budget it's him.

They've created their own problem by letting Hill walk and "replacing" him with a slot WR and a middling #3 WR. They're going to have to find a decent #1 WR - Hill is easily in the top 10 across the entire league - and the wideouts left available in FA don't really fit the bill. So they could either trade for someone approaching Hill's talent (yet somehow with lower salary demands) or trade up in the 1st round to get London or Wilson. They obviously let Hill go to free up some salary space so presumably they're going to look to the draft for the solution, by picking up two or even three guys for less overall salary than Hill was due.

They can't rely on Mahomes picking apart complicated defensive schemes or secondary looks with 7+ guys in coverage because he hasn't been able to do it so far, so they either need an elite wideout who can reliably get separation in man coverage and find seams in the zone schemes or retool the entire offense to make opponents stop dropping 7+ into coverage - IE develop some kind of run game.

If it was me I'd draft two of Chris Olave, Treylon Burks and Skyy Moore at #29 and #30, and then snag Trey McBride with #50 (I can't see him still being available at #62). Look at how vital Travis Kelce is now to the KC offense: Reid will want an insurance policy against his star TE getting hurt and there is the possibility of Kelce and McBride emulating the the double TE set as a passing threat, a la Gronk and Hernandez. As you rightly observed, that would create a massive matchup headache for most opponents and I also think it would confuse a lot of pass rush schemes.

 

[Kev The Rat]

Pants is a little harsh. Mahomes' absurd contract numbers have started to cause a problem but iirc the Chiefs have Scott Pioli in their front office - if anyone can cobble together a competitive roster on a limited budget it's him.

They've created their own problem by letting Hill walk and "replacing" him with a slot WR and a middling #3 WR. They're going to have to find a decent #1 WR - Hill is easily in the top 10 across the entire league - and the wideouts left available in FA don't really fit the bill. So they could either trade for someone approaching Hill's talent (yet somehow with lower salary demands) or trade up in the 1st round to get London or Wilson. They obviously let Hill go to free up some salary space so presumably they're going to look to the draft for the solution, by picking up two or even three guys for less overall salary than Hill was due.

They can't rely on Mahomes picking apart complicated defensive schemes or secondary looks with 7+ guys in coverage because he hasn't been able to do it so far, so they either need an elite wideout who can reliably get separation in man coverage and find seams in the zone schemes or retool the entire offense to make opponents stop dropping 7+ into coverage - IE develop some kind of run game.

If it was me I'd draft two of Chris Olave, Treylon Burks and Skyy Moore at #29 and #30, and then snag Trey McBride with #50 (I can't see him still being available at #62). Look at how vital Travis Kelce is now to the KC offense: Reid will want an insurance policy against his star TE getting hurt and there is the possibility of Kelce and McBride emulating the the double TE set as a passing threat, a la Gronk and Hernandez. As you rightly observed, that would create a massive matchup headache for most opponents and I also think it would confuse a lot of pass rush schemes.

Pioli was fired years ago. It’s Brett Veach now.

Mahomes was exceptional last year aside from a couple of early season jitters and an inexplicable second half championship game meltdown.

If anything the over concentration on Hill hampered him on occasion.

Juju and MVS were not replacements for Hill, they were replacements for the extremely poor Robinson and Pringle who have now gone, and are a clear upgrade on both.

It’s inevitable that the Chiefs will trade into the top 15 to grab a receiver or trade for a proven vet. Agree a pass catching tight end should be sought out in the 2nd or 3rd round.

All in all it’s been a stellar case of addition by subtraction.

I’d rather trust Vegas odds than some of the armchair GM’s here anyway. And Vegas have made it clear that they don’t think the Hill trade affects the Chiefs significantly if at all.

 

[Prevenger17]

I’d rather trust Vegas odds than some of the armchair GM’s here anyway. And Vegas have made it clear that they don’t think the Hill trade affects the Chiefs significantly if at all.

They're weaker without Hill. I would rather trust that obvious reality than the deranged musings of a man who thinks the NFL is scripted when his team lose

 

[Lapeno77]

The bit about Aaron Donald (around 4;11 mins) has to be a wind up, surely?

 

[Tree13]

Pioli was fired years ago. It’s Brett Veach now.

Mahomes was exceptional last year aside from a couple of early season jitters and an inexplicable second half championship game meltdown.

If anything the over concentration on Hill hampered him on occasion.

Juju and MVS were not replacements for Hill, they were replacements for the extremely poor Robinson and Pringle who have now gone, and are a clear upgrade on both.

It’s inevitable that the Chiefs will trade into the top 15 to grab a receiver or trade for a proven vet. Agree a pass catching tight end should be sought out in the 2nd or 3rd round.

All in all it’s been a stellar case of addition by subtraction.

I’d rather trust Vegas odds than some of the armchair GM’s here anyway. And Vegas have made it clear that they don’t think the Hill trade affects the Chiefs significantly if at all.

Didn't realise Pioli had gone. When your O-line got completely rebuilt a couple years back I presumed that was his work. My bad.

Last year both Hill and Kelce often attracted double coverage. Now only Kelce does. Losing your #1 WR in order to switch your existing #2 WR and #3 WR for upgraded #2 and #3 receivers isn't addition by subtraction, because you are left without a #1.

Now it may be that there is a plan in motion to attract a FA veteran but none of the WRs left are #1 WRs who command double coverage so that doesn't help. Equally it may be that the draft is the answer BUT if there's a run on receivers between picks 10 and 20 then you have a problem there too. That leaves trading for a top 15 WR as the more secure option but in that scenario what was the point of trading Hill away to start with? It begs the question, did Hill actively want out of KC and if so, why?

Bookies odds reflect the value of bets placed, nothing more. If bookies were such insightful analysts of NFL franchises, they'd be working in NFL franchises. Looking at your franchise as a whole, you need a top 10 WR, a top 10 corner and first round help on the D-line. But you only have two first round picks, and you may yet need a new safety too.

As I said before: painted into a corner.