Milks' Sports Betting Tips

milks · January 16, 2012

Hello.

I have moderate success with my punting. I tend to look for value prices on Betfair with a view to trading out at profit. If you're remotely interested I'm happy to share a little of what I'm playing about on with you guys.

There's value to be had everywhere, especially on the trading markets where the odd rogue price appears. I don't always get it myself, but I'm confident enough to publish my convictions - even if I'm going to get dogs abuse if they don't come in. So...first up:

Andy Murray - Australian Open - 7.8
Hugely over priced in my opinion. Hardcourt specialist and only Novak has had the better of him on this surface in recent times. He was 11/4 (3.8) for the same tournament last year and has reached the final for the past two years. He has a huge monkey on his back in respect of Grand Slams and his new coach may add the missing mental components to the jigsaw.

Novak's quarter of the draw looks testing with the much vaunted Canadian kid, Milos Raonic in his way. Bottom line, even if Murray makes it to the semis and faces Djokovic you'll be able to trade out of the bet at a profit.

thebluefox · January 16, 2012

chico has just won the 2,40 at plumpton

milks · January 16, 2012

Wigan v Man City - First Goalscorer - David Silva - 17/2

Wigan seem to have a problem in tracking midfield runners. Probably even more so this evening tonight as their best midfielder is in Equatorial Guinea or somesuch. I like the look of busy little Silva popping up first.

heatmeiser · January 16, 2012

milks said:
Wigan v Man City - First Goalscorer - David Silva - 17/2

Wigan seem to have a problem in tracking midfield runners. Probably even more so this evening tonight as their best midfielder is in Equatorial Guinea or somesuch. I like the look of busy little Silva popping up first.

FFS, why didn't you post this an hour ago before I spunked all my money on 3 - 1 to City?

All sports bets are much appreciated. I'm a f*cking degen.

Alio · January 16, 2012

You know your sports don't you. I'm gonna have a punt on Silva then. Unless it's soccer, I have no idea on how to bet

This post was sponsored by paddypower by the way...

McBain · January 16, 2012

milks said:
Hello.

I have moderate success with my punting. I tend to look for value prices on Betfair with a view to trading out at profit. If you're remotely interested I'm happy to share a little of what I'm playing about on with you guys.

There's value to be had everywhere, especially on the trading markets where the odd rogue price appears. I don't always get it myself, but I'm confident enough to publish my convictions - even if I'm going to get dogs abuse if they don't come in. So...first up:

Andy Murray - Australian Open - 7.8
Hugely over priced in my opinion. Hardcourt specialist and only Novak has had the better of him on this surface in recent times. He was 11/4 (3.8) for the same tournament last year and has reached the final for the past two years. He has a huge monkey on his back in respect of Grand Slams and his new coach may add the missing mental components to the jigsaw.

Novak's quarter of the draw looks testing with the much vaunted Canadian kid, Milos Raonic in his way. Bottom line, even if Murray makes it to the semis and faces Djokovic you'll be able to trade out of the bet at a profit.

Shocking tip, Paddy err I mean Milks. Tomic is gunna eat him for Brekkie.

heatmeiser · January 16, 2012

McBain said:
Shocking tip, Paddy err I mean Milks. Tomic is gunna eat him for Brekkie.

I've never heard of him, but is he oztralian by any chance?

milks · January 21, 2012

New York Giants - Superbowl Winners 2012 - 18/5 or 4.7 on the machine

Sport is generally all about momentum. The Giants have limped through the latter part of the regular season due to a combination of poor performances and injuries. Thankfully they hit their straps exactly when it mattered. Having played knockout football for the past 6 weeks they've approached every game with a **** or bust mentality and it has paid off. They now have a fully fit and dominant defence and a more balanced offence available to a seemingly untouchable Eli Manning.

The fact that they aren't favourites for tomorrow's NFC Championship game astounds me. True, the 49ers took a scalp in the big scoring Saints, but the New Orleans defence allowed Niner's QB Alex Smith time that he won't be afforded tomorrow. Expect no's 72, 90 & 91 to put some serious pressure down on the former #1 draft choice.

A win tomorrow would see the Giants flying and ultra confident heading into a Superbowl, probably against the Patriots; a media friendly side (see underpriced) with the Golden Boy at the helm. Let's not forget that the Giants took the Pats down recently and therefore will have the belief and the momentum.

If you trade, a win tomorrow will see at least a point reduction in the price you you can trade out at profit.

milks · January 21, 2012

I'm working my way through the African Cup of Nations. Usually a lottery but with only four proper sides in the mix there's some decent value. I fancy Senegal from my gut, but without being able to find a decent breakdown of their recent form I'm not going to tip them up yet.

The other problem I have is trying to second guess which of their 4 strikers are going to play. Niang is the skipper so is guaranteed to start, and if they carry on playing 4-3-3 then it's perm any two from Moussa Sow, Papiss Cisse and Demba Ba. I have a gut feel that Ba's form for the Barcodes is going to give him the nod, but as we're dealing with British bookies his price is down. Niang and Cisse are hovering at an attractive 18/1 apiece. May be worth waiting until their first match or I might recommend a punt with a view to trading out.

Bear with me.

milks · January 21, 2012

African Cup of Nations - Top Goalscorer - Moussa Sow 10/1 & Mamadou Niang 10/1

If Senegal manager Traore is sticking with the generally accepted 'get your best team out first' tournament mentality then he's going to play Niang, Ba and Sow. Papiss Cisse has been left on the bench this evening.

My advice would be a little bet on each with a view to trading off Niang if he scores tonight.

milks · January 23, 2012

milks said:
New York Giants - Superbowl Winners 2012 - 18/5 or 4.7 on the machine

Sport is generally all about momentum. The Giants have limped through the latter part of the regular season due to a combination of poor performances and injuries. Thankfully they hit their straps exactly when it mattered. Having played knockout football for the past 6 weeks they've approached every game with a **** or bust mentality and it has paid off. They now have a fully fit and dominant defence and a more balanced offence available to a seemingly untouchable Eli Manning.

The fact that they aren't favourites for tomorrow's NFC Championship game astounds me. True, the 49ers took a scalp in the big scoring Saints, but the New Orleans defence allowed Niner's QB Alex Smith time that he won't be afforded tomorrow. Expect no's 72, 90 & 91 to put some serious pressure down on the former #1 draft choice.

A win tomorrow would see the Giants flying and ultra confident heading into a Superbowl, probably against the Patriots; a media friendly side (see underpriced) with the Golden Boy at the helm. Let's not forget that the Giants took the Pats down recently and therefore will have the belief and the momentum.

If you trade, a win tomorrow will see at least a point reduction in the price you you can trade out at profit.

Meep. This one was a nail biter and I'm absolutely shattered as a result.

Defensively the Giants were immense, offensively they struggled against a dominant 49ers BUT came through in the clutch.

I genuinely believe if that performance were to be transposed to Indianapolis in two weeks, they would stroll past the Patriots. That doesn't happen in sports I know, but for me the Giants are the better side and should be the favourites.

If you've backed the G Men, then let it ride. They're 6/4 now which is no real price, but I'll have a look at the other markets closer to the date. Have a theory on the likely destination of the MVP should the Giants get the Lombardi Trophy.