All this talk of big fees surely discounts the fact that because of Covid clubs generally don't have a pot to pee in? The January window saw very little activity, and I can't see huge fees being thrown about in the summer, especially for relatively unproven youngsters.
There seems to be some resistance to the idea fees will drop but I can't see it at all mate. January was down 2/3rds in terms of spend from the previous year (which was already around 40% of where it had been 2 years earlier). A big chunk of that was also Diallo who essentially was signed in October but gets counted in January.
The summer window saw a reduction of around 15%. So where this summer fits I don't know. You'd imagine somewhere between those numbers, but to me likely to be nearer this winter (I appreciate there will be some opening up of ground set etc, but this has to be offset by some abysmal financial results being shown, and loans likely due to be paid back).
It won't be uniform though. For a myriad of reasons I sense younger players values will hold steadier than older players, who will bear the brunt of a decline. So you have to be smart. Norwich, on getting promotedm having a player under contract for a long time, who is young, are not under any real pressure to sell. I don't even think they gambled much in the PL last time, so have no pressure to sell.
For me you have to be pragmatic too, and "play the odds" a bit. If for example Hysaj, is available, with 12 months left, for a fraction of the cost he may have once been, and what Aarons is quoted at, you can see which deal makes more sense. I suppose, as with all buying and selling processes, it's about product placement before you move in. It looks all wrong for me with Aarons.
