Current Affairs Joe Biden POTUS #46

[Martin Alvito]

what democrats are demoralized by this?
I'm not sure its paying off his base either.
It's fulfilling a 2020 election promise, seems to me that getting this done before the midterms makes good political sense. It also makes economic sense.
Again I see this as good policy with poor messaging. The Democrats calling card.

To be direct about it, the minority voters in his base by and large do not hold college degrees, and that's a demographic that he has always struggled with. That's the legacy of things like opposing school busing during his congressional tenure in Delaware, letting Arlen Specter execute a hatchet job on Anita Hill while chairing the Thomas hearings, and his vote in favor of the mid-nineties crime bill.

It pays off the segment of the Democratic Party that is increasingly part of his base - middle-class and upper-middle-class, college-educated voters, who by and large are not minorities. They're already activated by Dobbs. He doesn't need to do anything to turn those people out.

I am categorically not saying, "Don't fulfill the campaign promise." I'm saying, "Do that after the midterm election."

Finally, I would call the claim that this makes economic sense controversial at best. There are plenty of economists on the left and on the right that would disagree with that statement.

 

[Ruairi77]

To be direct about it, the minority voters in his base by and large do not hold college degrees, and that's a demographic that he has always struggled with. That's the legacy of things like opposing school busing during his congressional tenure in Delaware, letting Arlen Specter execute a hatchet job on Anita Hill while chairing the Thomas hearings, and his vote in favor of the mid-nineties crime bill.

It pays off the segment of the Democratic Party that is increasingly part of his base - middle-class and upper-middle-class, college-educated voters, who by and large are not minorities. They're already activated by Dobbs. He doesn't need to do anything to turn those people out.

I am categorically not saying, "Don't fulfill the campaign promise." I'm saying, "Do that after the midterm election."

Finally, I would call the claim that this makes economic sense controversial at best. There are plenty of economists on the left and on the right that would disagree with that statement.

well, making third level free or affordable makes economic sense. Not sure there's any economist who'd disagree with that.
As for loan forgiveness, 90% will be for people making under $75k a year.
I don't have the stats on hand but the number of African American students who don't complete 4 year degrees is very high, they don't have the piece of paper but do have the debt.
I work in education publishing. Most of our clients are community colleges. For a lot of graduates this is huge, and they're not white middle class kids.
Most minority families around here will have one or two family members paying off loans to go to community colleges.

 

[Martin Alvito]

well, making third level free or affordable makes economic sense. Not sure there's any economist who'd disagree with that.
As for loan forgiveness, 90% will be for people making under $75k a year.
I don't have the stats on hand but the number of African American students who don't complete 4 year degrees is very high, they don't have the piece of paper but do have the debt.
I work in education publishing. Most of our clients are community colleges. For a lot of graduates this is huge, and they're not white middle class kids.
Most minority families around here will have one or two family members paying off loans to go to community colleges.

The proposal on the table doesn't make third level affordable or free. It, post hoc, forgives a portion of debts already incurred. Most of the beneficiaries will be people that have already graduated or left without a degree.

I understand that you work for an employer that serves the portion of the minority community that this proposal is reaching. Demographics, however, suggest that this will not reach a majority of the minority voters in this country. Turnout is a numbers game. The objective is to get your voters to the polls, flip what you can and do what can be done to get the opposition's base to stay home. I don't think this move serves that purpose.

The better political move here is to stand pat right now. There's absolutely no reason to hit fifteen when the dealer is showing a six. That's losing play.

 

[Ruairi77]

The proposal on the table doesn't make third level affordable or free. It, post hoc, forgives a portion of debts already incurred. Most of the beneficiaries will be people that have already graduated or left without a degree.

I understand that you work for an employer that serves the portion of the minority community that this proposal is reaching. Demographics, however, suggest that this will not reach a majority of the minority voters in this country. Turnout is a numbers game. The objective is to get your voters to the polls, flip what you can and do what can be done to get the opposition's base to stay home. I don't think this move serves that purpose.

The better political move here is to stand pat right now. There's absolutely no reason to hit fifteen when the dealer is showing a six. That's losing play.

I know that the proposal doesn't make 3rd level free or affordable, it's a step in the right direction and a clear indicator that crippling college debt is counter productive from an economic point of view.

I don't work for an employer

I can only give you my take on what I've seen with our CC clients (and some four year colleges).
From the demographics I deal with, this relief will overwhelmingly benefit minority communities as well as the working and lower middle classes.
It will have hardly any impact on upper middle class graduates.

I don't see this as a vote losing strategy.
I think Biden is playing poker, not blackjack.

 

[dublinbluenose]

Top sniding from the WH twitter admin

 

[carolinablue232]

Top sniding from the WH twitter admin

They definitely had that queued up, just waiting for her to say something

 

[Tin-Tin]

Top sniding from the WH twitter admin

Superb!

 

[dublinbluenose]

They definitely had that queued up, just waiting for her to say something

There's a whole thread of them - its brilliant

 

[Frenk]

The question is, for those who already paid off their loans and now pay taxes to pay of others loans where do they get their refund from? Also, what about those that get loans in the future?

 

[carolinablue232]

The question is, for those who already paid off their loans and now pay taxes to pay of others loans where do they get their refund from? Also, what about those that get loans in the future?

This is the bigger question. How do we stop the cycle?

 

[Martin Alvito]

I know that the proposal doesn't make 3rd level free or affordable, it's a step in the right direction and a clear indicator that crippling college debt is counter productive from an economic point of view.

I don't work for an employer

I can only give you my take on what I've seen with our CC clients (and some four year colleges).
From the demographics I deal with, this relief will overwhelmingly benefit minority communities as well as the working and lower middle classes.
It will have hardly any impact on upper middle class graduates.

I don't see this as a vote losing strategy.
I think Biden is playing poker, not blackjack.

Independent contractor. OK.

I understand that Biden gets some big wins with a subset of his base here, but the majority of Americans don't have a college degree and this is even more true of minorities. The people he doesn't want to activate are whites without a college degree, who are Trump's base. The people he doesn't want to tick off, because many of them have to somehow wait two hours at the polls to vote in between the two jobs they're juggling, are the minorities without college degrees.

Distributional politics that obviously pays off most Americans (eg: universal basic income) at the expense of a few that likely aren't voting for you anyway makes sense prior to an election. This handout doesn't, because of the distribution of payoffs and interests. So: do it after the election. There's no urgency to do anything before January anyway if you're forgiving deferred interest in the plan.

 

[Rook]

TBF if DeSantis wins in 2024 he will, probably, have defeated Trump to get there. That would be an achievement.

DeSantis isn't running against him.

 

[tsubaki]

DeSantis isn't running against him.

I think he would; and provided he does it right / the RW media doesn't abandon him, I think he beats him in the GOP selection - I can't imagine being old and mentally suspect is going to sell that well in the buildup to 2024.

OFC whether Trump then rides off into the sunset or stays to fight a third party run is another question.

 

[tsubaki]

Independent contractor. OK.

I understand that Biden gets some big wins with a subset of his base here, but the majority of Americans don't have a college degree and this is even more true of minorities. The people he doesn't want to activate are whites without a college degree, who are Trump's base. The people he doesn't want to tick off, because many of them have to somehow wait two hours at the polls to vote in between the two jobs they're juggling, are the minorities without college degrees.

Distributional politics that obviously pays off most Americans (eg: universal basic income) at the expense of a few that likely aren't voting for you anyway makes sense prior to an election. This handout doesn't, because of the distribution of payoffs and interests. So: do it after the election. There's no urgency to do anything before January anyway if you're forgiving deferred interest in the plan.

Indeed. I do think though that something like this for medical debt (which John Oliver did a while back) would benefit an awful lot of people, as well as coming in way below the value of what the debt is claimed to be.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Indeed. I do think though that something like this for medical debt (which John Oliver did a while back) would benefit an awful lot of people, as well as coming in way below the value of what the debt is claimed to be.

It's a much better distribution in terms of improving his position. I don't think he can do that legally by executive order, but he wins either way. If some conservative group challenges it in court, it makes his opponents look bad. If they decide to sit this one out, his position improves.