This is clear in data from the
Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape project, which has conducted large surveys of more than 6,000 people each week since July 2019. Those surveys have consistently asked whether people would vote for Trump or Biden in a general election matchup. The figure below shows how Biden has polled against Trump among registered voters in four different age groups:
But among voters over 45, including seniors, very little has changed since July. Biden’s lead among 45- to 64-year-olds was 10 points in July and is eight points now — substantially better than Clinton’s nine-point deficit.
Since July, the margin between Trump and Biden has clearly tightened among voters under 45. This has brought Biden’s lead among both groups in line with Clinton’s lead in 2016. Biden’s current lead among 18- to 29-year-olds is 19 points, according to the trendline in the graph that averages the weekly polls. Clinton’s lead was 18 points according to the
2016 exit polls. Biden’s seven-point lead among 30- to 44-year-olds matches Clinton’s eight-point lead.
Biden’s lead among seniors has also been a fairly consistent four to eight points over the past 10 months. It may have increased a few points in the most recent weeks, but this only brought it back to where it was in July.
Biden’s lead among seniors isn’t an “anybody but Trump” phenomenon. Nationscape has also consistently asked about a matchup between Bernie Sanders and Trump. Compared to Biden, Sanders has performed about six to eight points worse among seniors when matched against Trump. He does better than Biden only among the younger voters who have typically supported the Vermont senator more.