Agree on the second point for sure.
On the first I maintain there's a Jan tax in there. I know footy maths is a mug's game, but just the very nature of Palace paying ~£10 more for JSL than they're getting for Mateta is bananas, and can surely only be borne of a *need* to replace him in the next few days. If this same scenario played out in the Summer once a) Wolves are down, and b) the market is in full flow, they don't pay much, if any more than £30m IMO.
All of which is why I make my peace with us doing our business in the Summer.