Greek Financial Crisis

[davek]

They really should resign, they have completely ballsed this up...........

I cant get over the brass neck of that feller Tsipras. "I dont support it, but I'm going to sign up to it". FFS, if the divvy had said that 6 months ago he could have cut to the chase and avoided chaos.

Same old story: people on the left wedded to parliamentary politics always start out sounding like Bolsheviks and end up like pathetic Mensheviks when they feel the institutional embrace in power.

The Greek working class will sort that classless tit out...him and any other Syriza MP who signed up to that craven surrender package.

Coming soon: Syriza 2.0.

 

[Woolly Blue]

I cant get over the brass neck of that feller Tsipras. "I dont support it, but I'm going to sign up to it". FFS, if the divvy had said that 6 months ago he could have cut to the chase and avoided chaos.

Same old story: people on the left wedded to parliamentary politics always start out sounding like Bolsheviks and end up like pathetic Mensheviks when they feel the institutional embrace in power.

The Greek working class will sort that classless tit out...him and any other Syriza MP who signed up to that craven surrender package.

Coming soon: Syriza 2.0.

It's the move from idealism to realism Dave.

Most people reach that point in some time in their life and, without forgetting what drove them in the first place, decide to do the best they can in a practical sense.

Other people never get to that point in life, and generally achieve very little while running around a lot and making a lot of noise. Occasionally someone really amazing comes along in history who manages to deliver on their ideals without compromise. Those people are exceedingly rare though, and if you're one of them, or turn out to be one of them, then I applaud your sincerity, but most of us have to swallow our principles from time to time because the alternative is worse.

 

[davek]

It's the move from idealism to realism Dave.

Most people reach that point in some time in their life and, without forgetting what drove them in the first place, decide to do the best they can in a practical sense.

Other people never get to that point in life, and generally achieve very little while running around a lot and making a lot of noise. Occasionally someone really amazing comes along in history who manages to deliver on their ideals without compromise. Those people are exceedingly rare though, and if you're one of them, or turn out to be one of them, then I applaud your sincerity, but most of us have to swallow our principles from time to time because the alternative is worse.

Thanks for calling me all but a bigmouthed know nothing divvy. Duly noted.

Idealism turned to realism? You make that sound like Tsipras was asked to storm the Winter Palace. He set himself up at the head of a party that promised no more than a refusal to carry out austerity measures. It's a pretty manageable mandate to carry out when he had options to turn to if that provoked the ire of the European Commission. He even has the IMF on his side now.

I'm sure you'll come back and say that conditions on the ground are such that it'd be a massive gamble with people's lives and imply that I'm just back seat driving. But that wouldn't be true would it? He has a massive backing of the Greeks who are the real experts in this, not someone who went on holiday there for a few days. They were ready and willing to exit if need be. Tsipras cant be portrayed as cooling the jets of some revolutionary cadre getting ahead of the population. If anything, he's struggling to hang onto the shirt tails of Greeks who want to finally cut the umbilical cord wrapped around their throats.

 

[Woolly Blue]

Thanks for calling me all but a bigmouthed know nothing divvy.

As if I'd dare, but heh, if the cap fits

xxx

They were ready and willing to exit if need be.

They're not though, well, not at this moment in time though and that's the underlying problem with your argument. Having recently spoken to someone who's pretty close to the guts of all this, I think I can safely say that if Tsipras thought he had a mandate to take Greece out of the Euro then :-

a ) His bargaining position would have been much better and
b) He'd have done so if necessary

He doesn't have such a mandate and no Greek government is likely to have such a mandate for the next two or three years. You might wish the reality of the situation was somewhat different, but it isn't.

 

[orly]

As if I'd dare, but heh, if the cap fits

xxx


They're not though, well, not at this moment in time though and that's the underlying problem with your argument. Having recently spoken to someone who's pretty close to the guts of all this, I think I can safely say that if Tsipras thought he had a mandate to take Greece out of the Euro then :-

a ) His bargaining position would have been much better and
b) He'd have done so if necessary

He doesn't have such a mandate and no Greek government is likely to have such a mandate for the next two or three years. You might wish the reality of the situation was somewhat different, but it isn't.

Zat levels of quoting from the Woolmeister here

 

[Woolly Blue]

Zat levels of quoting from the Woolmeister here

It's my phone, it messes up quotes the first time I do it.

 

[orly]

Don't worry mate it is quite fun this way

It's my phone, it messes up quotes the first time I do it.

 

[davek]

As if I'd dare, but heh, if the cap fits

xxx
They're not though, well, not at this moment in time though and that's the underlying problem with your argument. Having recently spoken to someone who's pretty close to the guts of all this, I think I can safely say that if Tsipras thought he had a mandate to take Greece out of the Euro then :-

a ) His bargaining position would have been much better and
b) He'd have done so if necessary

He doesn't have such a mandate and no Greek government is likely to have such a mandate for the next two or three years. You might wish the reality of the situation was somewhat different, but it isn't.

That's open to speculation right now. Many Greeks have been willing to, though I accept the feelings two weeks ago seemed to be against it (if polling was any guide, which is far from dependable these days).

What we do know is that Greeks overwhelmingly rejected a less severe package of austerity (and at the request of Syriza's leadership) but now Tsipras has saddled them with an even bigger austerity package. So what gave way?

There's no understanding you can put on this. He should have resigned and Syriza with it by calling fresh elections. They've had months if not years to prepare the way for Grexit. This isn't Realpolitik, it's a bankrupt act of a man and his party who couldn't carry out their basic promise not to impose a programme that'd savage the poor.

 

[peteblue]

Right or wrong he should have done what the country voted for. Greece would have been forced out of the Euro by Germany but then they could have just defaulted on all of their loans and started again. It would still have been incredibly hard for them but would have had more friends than they realise.........

 

[Bruce Wayne]

You can't just say "I'm scrapping austerity" though can you? That's like me going to my bank and saying "I'm scrapping my mortgage". Syriza seemed to think that they could strong arm better terms out of the EU, hence their bold promises during the election, and then when that failed they had little other course of action but to back down.

It's fine suggesting whatever course of action you like, but in reality someone has to pay for that, and that's either funding it yourself or finding someone to lend you money. No one other than the EU stepped forward, and as the prospect of life without the EU money is even worse than with it, Syriza back tracked on their bravado.

Not really much more too it is there?

 

[Woolly Blue]

That's open to speculation right now. Many Greeks have been willing to, though I accept the feelings two weeks ago seemed to be against it (if polling was any guide, which is far from dependable these days).

What we do know is that Greeks overwhelmingly rejected a less severe package of austerity (and at the request of Syriza's leadership) but now Tsipras has saddled them with an even bigger austerity package. So what gave way?

There's no understanding you can put on this. He should have resigned and Syriza with it by calling fresh elections. They've had months if not years to prepare the way for Grexit. This isn't Realpolitik, it's a bankrupt act of a man and his party who couldn't carry out their basic promise not to impose a programme that'd savage the poor.

So, lets say he resigns tomorrow, there's a new election next week and a similar government is delivered. What changes ?
Nothing really.

His position is pretty hopeless and he's highly unlikely to last very long but, essentially, he played his cards, he lost, and now he's trying to make the best of a bad job. However, he's still highly thought of by the vast majority of Greeks who put him in power so, even if he resigns some time this year, then I suspect we'll see him back at some time in the future.

Greek exit from the Euro is, for the moment, a smokescreen. Voluntarily committing the country back to the Drachma while the vast majority of the population are against such a move would be political suicide. Chances are that would lead very quickly to a new election and the very real possibility of a right wing government.

I think there's a good chance they will exit some time in the next few years, but I can't see it happening until it becomes apparent to the majority of the population that they'll be better off out than in. The only way that won't happen is if some decent deal is structured on extending or cancelling some of the debt, so that's a political question the Germans have to answer.

If he could have engineered a situation where exit was forced on Greece against his will, and lets face it, that was desperately close, then, politically, he'd have been in a much better place.

End of the day, he did what he thought was right for the country, or at least, what was least wrong. It's called pragmatism.

 

[roydo]

You can't just say "I'm scrapping austerity" though can you? That's like me going to my bank and saying "I'm scrapping my mortgage". Syriza seemed to think that they could strong arm better terms out of the EU, hence their bold promises during the election, and then when that failed they had little other course of action but to back down.

It's fine suggesting whatever course of action you like, but in reality someone has to pay for that, and that's either funding it yourself or finding someone to lend you money. No one other than the EU stepped forward, and as the prospect of life without the EU money is even worse than with it, Syriza back tracked on their bravado.

Not really much more too it is there?

I see what you mean, but it isnt just like that. It is more the bank keep asking you to cut down on your spending again and again to meet your mortgage commitments, but then lending you even more to enable you to pay said mortgage payments. I think.

It might be better if the bank allowed you more time, like 40 years, to pay mortgage off, and was a bit more flexible on the monthly repayments, allowing you more time, and less pressure, to maybe take on a second job to grow your income.

Not that Greece is blameless, but there comes a point where lobbing more of the same medicine at them just doesnt make the patient any better.

 

[davek]

So, lets say he resigns tomorrow, there's a new election next week and a similar government is delivered. What changes ?
Nothing really.

His position is pretty hopeless and he's highly unlikely to last very long but, essentially, he played his cards, he lost, and now he's trying to make the best of a bad job. However, he's still highly thought of by the vast majority of Greeks who put him in power so, even if he resigns some time this year, then I suspect we'll see him back at some time in the future.

Greek exit from the Euro is, for the moment, a smokescreen. Voluntarily committing the country back to the Drachma while the vast majority of the population are against such a move would be political suicide. Chances are that would lead very quickly to a new election and the very real possibility of a right wing government.

I think there's a good chance they will exit some time in the next few years, but I can't see it happening until it becomes apparent to the majority of the population that they'll be better off out than in. The only way that won't happen is if some decent deal is structured on extending or cancelling some of the debt, so that's a political question the Germans have to answer.

If he could have engineered a situation where exit was forced on Greece against his will, and lets face it, that was desperately close, then, politically, he'd have been in a much better place.

End of the day, he did what he thought was right for the country, or at least, what was least wrong. It's called pragmatism.

So my understanding of this ^^^ is that Tsipras had no strategy whatsoever. When the Eurogroup called his bluff (as they surely always were going to because they could give a flying one if they're in or not...preferably not for the northern Europeans) then the plan was to simply stand back, gather themselves then do the Eurogroup's bidding for them by imposing the even more draconian austerity cuts they came up with? That's the politics of reality versus idealism is it? Brilliant. If the cards he had to play were all jokers then why play the game? That's the grown up thing to do is it, rather than planning ahead for grexit and printing new currency (as Varoufakis has said: the opportunity was there and he advocated it, but they never employed anything other than designers to come up with banknotes and never thought seriously about employing the 500 people or so they needed to mass produce).

His leadership has been appalling, once this package is rolled out he'll for all time be known as the man who dragged defeat out of the jaws of victory. He's squandered a whole population's revolt and handed them more misery. That's the reality.

 

[magicjuan]

I did, but you talked of our current government, my response was in accord with that. I was never at any time stretching this to incorporate Greece, but you did. If you go back to your first reply reference was with regard to our current government and their programme as I understood it and you were pulling faces at that no doubt because of their policy towards the welfare state.

Pulling faces? Stunning.

The reference to Greece was as an example that regardless of the democratic process, decisions are made by others. Governments pander to commerce and when they don't do as they are wished to do then external forces come into play, happened there it happens here.

It's a simple enough concept.

Pulling faces indeed, the thought of it...

 

[Woolly Blue]

So my understanding of this ^^^ is that Tsipras had no strategy whatsoever. When the Eurogroup called his bluff (as they surely always were going to because they could give a flying one if they're in or not...preferably not for the northern Europeans) then the plan was to simply stand back, gather themselves then do the Eurogroup's bidding for them by imposing the even more draconian austerity cuts they came up with? That's the politics of reality versus idealism is it? Brilliant. If the cards he had to play were all jokers then why play the game? That's the grown up thing to do is it, rather than planning ahead for grexit and printing new currency (as Varoufakis has said: the opportunity was there and he advocated it, but they never employed anything other than designers to come up with banknotes and never thought seriously about employing the 500 people or so they needed to mass produce).

His leadership has been appalling, once this package is rolled out he'll for all time be known as the man who dragged defeat out of the jaws of victory. He's squandered a whole population's revolt and handed them more misery. That's the reality.

He was wrong, he thought he could strike a better deal than he could.
To be fair, I thought the same, and I wasn't alone

The money taps would now be in the process of being turned back on if the vote would have been Yes and Syriza had fallen. As it is, the ECB will be forced kicking and screaming to negotiations about turning the tap back on now by other creditors and actors outside the drama like the US.

Their coup d'etat has been defeated.

Again, to be fair, I was wrong about the vote in the referendum, which I thought might swing to Yes at the last moment as people realised a No vote while not being prepared to quit the Euro didn't really square things.