Greek Financial Crisis

[dholliday]

It could happen given that the Syriza-led government were only elected with 40% of the vote. It depends how the referendum is taken by the people: a straight in/out decision or, more likely than not, a way of handing their negotiators (via a large no vote) a stronger bargaining position to take back to the table.

I think the Greek public can see their representatives have bent over backwards to cut a deal and that national pride and credibility is a big issue here.

latest poll is 47% for austerity, 33% against, and 20% unsure.

 

[marnie]

That's not true. A deal was there to be done last week when the Syriza Government agreed to do €8B more austerity, which was brokered by Hollande the French President. Then the IMF wouldn't sign off on it because they wouldn't wear the tax hike that was proposed along with it and the fact Greece was still asking for a partial write off of debts. Since then a variety of national governments are against any negotiated settlement. They want complete surrender to austerity to pacify their own constituencies.

I think the European governments and agencies have pushed Syriza too far and they've been shocked and outflanked by the referendum call. The harder left in that party are now in control and will push for grexit. Greece, because of the people on the street, are too tough a nut for the EU/Troika to crack. They've been through a crucible and cant be intimated by anyone at this stage. Hopefully Spain pick the baton up after the Greeks default.

THIS THIS AND THIS AGAIN.

 

[bizzaro]

That's not true. A deal was there to be done last week when the Syriza Government agreed to do €8B more austerity, which was brokered by Hollande the French President. Then the IMF wouldn't sign off on it because they wouldn't wear the tax hike that was proposed along with it and the fact Greece was still asking for a partial write off of debts. Since then a variety of national governments are against any negotiated settlement. They want complete surrender to austerity to pacify their own constituencies.

I think the European governments and agencies have pushed Syriza too far and they've been shocked and outflanked by the referendum call. The harder left in that party are now in control and will push for grexit. Greece, because of the people on the street, are too tough a nut for the EU/Troika to crack. They've been through a crucible and cant be intimated by anyone at this stage. Hopefully Spain pick the baton up after the Greeks default.

Get back in the commune you utter weapon!

 

[davek]

latest poll is 47% for austerity, 33% against, and 20% unsure.

As the saying goes: a week's a long time in politics. Never has that been more apt than now in Greece. But imagine what will happen in the wake of a yes vote for austerity toppling Syriza and bringing in a centre-left/centre-right coalition government who proceed to carry out the cuts proposed by the Euro Group. The streets will be turned into battle zones and anarchy will ensue. Permanent-crisis is on the cards in that eventuality until something big gives way.

The issue isn't going away, regardless of the outcome of any referendum result next weekend. It'll just sharpen matters up.

 

[roydo]

As the saying goes: a week's a long time in politics. Never has that been more apt than now in Greece. But imagine what will happen in the wake of a yes vote for austerity toppling Syriza and bringing in a centre-left/centre-right coalition government who proceed to carry out the cuts proposed by the Euro Group. The streets will be turned into battle zones and anarchy will ensue. Permanent-crisis is on the cards in that eventuality until something big gives way.

The issue isn't going away, regardless of the outcome of any referendum result next weekend. It'll just sharpen matters up.

It is a poisoned choice they have, thats for sure. (The normal folk I mean, not the idiots who cooked this mess up).

Austerity is not the answer to the problem. A sticking plaster for a while maybe, that is about all.

They loath the elite who have inflicted this on them, but also see being in the Euro as a symbol they have shaken off the third world status that decades of internal strife had made them feel within Europe.

Will default/withdrawing of ECB support for their banks deliver a Drachma backed upturn? Hmm, dunno. Will staying tied to the Euro whilst pretending to have any real independence, other than in symbolic stuff, prove to work? The last 5 years or so would say not.

Tough call, but I know what I would vote for.

 

[Toffeelover]

The payment is due before the referendum so default will occur.

 

[roydo]

The payment is due before the referendum so default will occur.

And the ECB will probably switch of the cash machines tonight as well. Well, might do.

 

[TheFinnFan]

KICK THEM OUT ALREADY ffs

 

[Whistlin' Dixie]

And the ECB will probably switch of the cash machines tonight as well. Well, might do.

Probs all be empty before then.....

 

[davek]

It is a poisoned choice they have, thats for sure. (The normal folk I mean, not the idiots who cooked this mess up).

Austerity is not the answer to the problem. A sticking plaster for a while maybe, that is about all.

They loath the elite who have inflicted this on them, but also see being in the Euro as a symbol they have shaken off the third world status that decades of internal strife had made them feel within Europe.

Will default/withdrawing of ECB support for their banks deliver a Drachma backed upturn? Hmm, dunno. Will staying tied to the Euro whilst pretending to have any real independence, other than in symbolic stuff, prove to work? The last 5 years or so would say not.

Tough call, but I know what I would vote for.

They have to go it alone and do what Iceland did. There are powerful players not officially in the game though, like the US, who will do all they can to prevent that. They dont want the EU weakened when they're trying to focus all forces on the eastern Europe situation and the encirclement of Russia and the unity they require to bring diplomatic pressure to bear on them. There's wheels within wheels playing lots of different strategies in all this, and I can see Washington using its influence to keep Greece in the fold.

The EU though really are scandalous in their high handedness over these negotiations. Here's the Greek finance ministers's letter that outlines the way the Greeks are being treated now as subservient to the rest of the member nations and how intractable they are. They're basically spoiling for a fight and out to destroy Syriza. http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/06/2...e-27th-june-2015-eurogroup-meeting/#more-8149

 

[sd_1992]

Unbeleivable that with so many economists that none of them think that letting greece have its own currency is probably the ony way out of this mess that greece have gotten themselves in...

 

[Toffeelover]

It could happen given that the Syriza-led government were only elected with 40% of the vote. It depends how the referendum is taken by the people: a straight in/out decision or, more likely than not, a way of handing their negotiators (via a large no vote) a stronger bargaining position to take back to the table.

I think the Greek public can see their representatives have bent over backwards to cut a deal and that national pride and credibility is a big issue here.

They have not Dave, they have played a game of brinkmanship. They want a deal on their terms and basically put off repayment for much longer. Now if you were one of the creditors, would you want your money back or not?

 

[Toffeelover]

And the ECB will probably switch of the cash machines tonight as well. Well, might do.

Which would mean the banks do not open tomorrow to avoid a run and cash controls will be introduced which should have been done weeks ago instead of relying on the ECB to prop them up.

 

[roydo]

Probs all be empty before then.....

Joking aside, imagine if tomorrow morning, you literally could not use the banking system though? Like DDM,s, salaries, pensions etc are not paid.

The credit cards dont work. The only way to pay for anything is by cash. And you have £200. (No Euro sign on my keyboard ffs).

GOT has stopped taking mug orders from Greece already.

 

[AussieToffee]

The Troika will no doubt deem the referendum illegal and are probably readying Greece's first ever terrorist attack on home soil to disrupt proceedings in order to keep them in tow because errr ...Democracy. We can't have Democracy but it's fine that 89% of the bailout money goes straight to the bankers who are now declaring war on what's left of a sovereign nation.

A famous QUOTE comes to mind ..."It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning". - Henry Ford

I don't understand the full repercussions of a GREXIT but after listening to the Greek defence ministers speech yesterday declaring that Greece is at war scared me.