The problem here is real, and happens, but I'm not sure that not allowing such a person, by law, into the area will solve anything.Most people take isolated cases seriously. If you heard an isolated case of a strange man hanging around your kids school, or following a local woman home, or perhaps that there had been a local burglary, would your senses not be heightened? It's the exception that tests the rule. The outlier gives you pause. Of course you're not going to be afraid of something that can never/will never happen. But the fact that it can, gives the opportunity in the 1st place.
In addition, this needs clearing up, because people keep stating it as though this is the crux of the argument, and its not. Nobody is saying that it's genuine Trans people, who are often vulnerable themselves, committing crimes. The argument is that the rule change weakens the safeguarding issue and gives cover to those who feel emboldened to use the exemption to their benefit.
If a man decides to enter a female bathroom, and I'm not even just talking about actual physical assault here, but perhaps he goes in to take photographs, and he knows that by law, he can freely enter, without question, knowing all he has to do is say he identifies as a female and he has the right to be there. Can you honestly not see how this is a problem?
Like i say, this is not anti trans, it's just common sense.
Taking indecent images of someone, without consent, is morally wrong. Allowing them access by law to that location isn't the deciding factor IMO.
If a male, dressed as a female, plans to enter a female bathroom to take indecent images or to assault someone, then simply saying "you are biologically male, so you can't go in" doesn't feel like it's going to stop them. I accept it removes opportunity a little (but let's be honest, if they're willing to perform such acts once through the door, then they will have no problem with trying to sneak past even if they're not "allowed"), but it feels like an attempt to reduce something by 5%, that is already a rare occurrence (say 1% of biological males using the female bathroom would do such a thing) is negatively affecting the 99% who pose no threat for such a small benefit.
The argument isn't that nothing needs to be done, but that a different approach might be better - though I'll admit that I don't know what that better solution might be.
It's a sorry world where a "safe space" is necessary for anyone.