Match Thread Everton v Aston Villa - Preview, Match Report and MotM Poll

Your Everton MOTM vs Aston Villa


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ok… i’m scared for this i think it will be the toughest out of the games we’ve had

why? we can’t score we can’t hold it up

they have pace

villa have been unlucky but lost 4 on the bounce

hellooooooo everton

we will be in the bottom 3 tomorrow either way
 

A true test of whether Sean has been able to work his magic on the team. Decent side are Villa. People keep telling me our players are too good to be in the position we are in - so let's see. It's a must win for me. Big strong midfield performance please - but defence is cruciai - we have to keep their forwards quiet. COYB. Win this and I'll have genuine hope again.
 
Got to be taking points from our home games, but got a feeling this will be a point. Corners are our big weapon so backing Tarks to score for us. Can see Coutinho scoring for them just to spite us. What I would give for a win, if somehow we get 3 points, we take a huge step to safety. UTFT
 

It is going to be tough, they all are, and they are playing with the comfort of points in the bag compared to us, Leeds etc. But they have only lost 1 less game than us. They aren’t PSG. And they aren't Arsenal, who were supposed to rip us to shreds.

Other duff teams are picking up points tomorrow due to playing each other. Ultra massive if we can win.
 
It is going to be tough, they all are, and they are playing with the comfort of points in the bag compared to us, Leeds etc. But they have only lost 1 less game than us. They aren’t PSG. And they aren't Arsenal, who were supposed to rip us to shreds.

Other duff teams are picking up points tomorrow due to playing each other. Ultra massive if we can win.

they’ve lost 4 on the bounce so the everton in me tells me it’s a bumming

then i will cry
 
No worries lads pundit Mark Laurenson of the other potential has predicted a Villa winaswe will be overconfident.......every time he predicts us to lose - we win ;)
Sporting life are predicting the opposite result and frankly betting on a goal for Tarkowski from a corner looks like free money!

Everton v Aston Villa​

Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)
I'm revisiting a bet that went oh so close a few weeks ago when Everton played at Anfield, with JAMES TARKOWSKI TO SCORE ANYTIME again an appetising price given the underlying data involved.
In what will likely be a tight game with few goals, a set-piece could prove pivotal, and that is a strength of Everton against a weakness of Aston Villa.
Since Sean Dyche took charge of the Toffees - an admittedly small sample of three games - his side have racked up 1.84 xGF from set-pieces alone, with that representing 46% of the total xGF Everton have mustered in that time.
In their two games at Goodison Park, both which were won 1-0, they have racked up 0.55 xG from dead-ball situations against Arsenal, and a huge 1.15 against Leeds, highlighting their threat.
Aston Villa have looked very suspect defending set-pieces allowing on average four shots from such situations across their last six matches, while conceding 0.46 xGA per game from dead-ball settings.
So this appears to be something the hosts can exploit this weekend, and Tarkowski has been the main target.
Tarkowski shot map

In three games since Dyche took over, the Englishman has registered two shots and a goal against Arsenal, hit the post with his only shot against Liverpool, and last time out against Leeds he had two attempts with one on target.
He is a handful, and his xG/95 since reuniting with his former boss is at a whopping 0.26, and for context, across that same date range, that means he has been a more potent attacking threat than all of Michail Antonio (0.22), Heung-min Son (0.18), Kevin De Bruyne (0.16), Allan Saint-Maximin (0.14) and Kaoru Mitoma (0.09).
15/1 looks large here, especially as the same bet is as short as 13/2 elsewhere.
Score prediction: Everton 1-0 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 2200 GMT (22/02/23)
 

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