The Esk
Player Valuation: £70m
Great bikes
Current Affairs EU In or Out
- Thread starter micknick
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Great bikes
Nope, CETA
http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ceta/
I guess similar to TTIP but for Canada rather than the US.
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
I see that Deutsche Bank is closing 25% of its branches and getting rid of 3000 people.......
"Earlier this year Wolfgang Schaeuble, Germany's Finance Minister, claimed he had "no concerns" about Deutsche Bank's plunging share prices.
And co-CEO John Cryan insisted: "Deutsche Bank remains absolutely rock-solid, given our strong capital and risk position."
But financial expert Max Keiser has poured cold water on their claims, saying the bank is "technically insolvent" and runs a "ponzi scheme".
If this had been Barclays, everyone would have been jumping up and down shouting "see, it's Brexit".
Things change all the time. This will be a very big deal in Germany, but not nearly as big as no trade deal with the UK would cause....
"Earlier this year Wolfgang Schaeuble, Germany's Finance Minister, claimed he had "no concerns" about Deutsche Bank's plunging share prices.
And co-CEO John Cryan insisted: "Deutsche Bank remains absolutely rock-solid, given our strong capital and risk position."
But financial expert Max Keiser has poured cold water on their claims, saying the bank is "technically insolvent" and runs a "ponzi scheme".
If this had been Barclays, everyone would have been jumping up and down shouting "see, it's Brexit".
Things change all the time. This will be a very big deal in Germany, but not nearly as big as no trade deal with the UK would cause....
Efcjake
Player Valuation: £80m
Interesting stuff. This one does not get talked about at all compared to the TTIP.
Toffeelover
Player Valuation: £80m
Pete, forgive my ignorance but what is a "Ponzi Scheme"?
Toffeelover
Player Valuation: £80m
This is the bug bear, And some thing we may have to face.
Following a decision by the Council, it will be possible to provisionally apply CETA. Its full entry into force will be subject to the EU's conclusion, through a Council decision with the consent of the European Parliament, and by all Member States through the relevant national ratification procedures.
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
Ponzi scheme/ˈpɒnzi/
noun
a form of fraud in which belief in the success of a non-existent enterprise is fostered by the payment of quick returns to the first investors from money invested by later investors.
Like one of those pyramid selling jobs.
I don't necessarily agree with the economist mind, but he doesn't have a lot of faith in them.......
Toffeelover
Player Valuation: £80m
Sounds like the three card trick - which is the ace.
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
He's basically saying it's a non company and anyone who buys shares from now on is getting conned........
D
Deleted member 28206
Guest
Oh my days. The real impact of Brexit is here, look at these poor lot having to share a poxy place together.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36826327
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36826327
Kind of it took the name of British gas -
it has branches worldwide -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...74/Where-is-our-gas-coming-from-Centrica.html
this country is known to sell the family silver or in Labour's case the family Gold bullion!
nothing will change we sold the postal service rather cheaply not to create more jobs though!
Perhaps food for thought, courtesy of Tim Harford's latest column in the FT.
"So what happens now? As the aftershocks of the Brexit vote rumble on, people keep asking me to predict the future. I am not sure that is a useful exercise. But there’s a lot to be learnt from examining the recent past. The unexpected result has important lessons for anyone who wishes to see what might be ahead.
The first is that wishful thinking is surprisingly powerful. A few years ago, the economist Guy Mayraz conducted a simple experiment at Oxford university’s Centre for Experimental Social Science. Mayraz ran sessions in which the participants were shown 90 days of “wheat prices” (actually based on historical price data) and asked to predict the price of wheat on the 100th day. In addition to being paid for accurate forecasts, half the experimental subjects were told they were “bakers”, who would profit if the price of wheat fell, and half were “farmers”, who would make money if the price of wheat rose.
Logically, a farmer should make the same forecast as a baker, since the forecast does not change the outcome, and both of them are paid for accuracy. If people want to hedge even these small bets, farmers ought to forecast a lower price so that if the unwelcome outcome happens, at least they’re rewarded for their forecasting.
But that’s not what Mayraz found. Instead, nearly two-thirds of farmers predicted higher-than-average prices, and nearly two-thirds of bakers predicted lower-than-average prices. People tended to predict that their dreams would come true.
The same seems to have happened to Remain supporters — a group that included most of the British and international political and business establishment. Months before the vote, betting markets suggested that the chance of a Leave vote was about one-third. Given the likely consequences of such a vote — including the collapse of the pound, the resignation of the prime minister and a prolonged period of rudderless uncertainty — a one-third chance was worth taking seriously. Yet most of the elite seemed unwilling to countenance it. That is wishful thinking at its finest.
The betting markets, influenced as always by the weight of money, may have been displaying some wishful thinking of their own. Even during a mid-June run where nine out of 10 polls showed the Leave side ahead, the markets never gave Leave much more than a 40 per cent chance. With hindsight that seems odd.
The second lesson is that confirmation bias is everywhere: we are quite capable of clinging on to our beliefs by picking whatever facts support them. Remain voters now see the catastrophe they expected; Leave voters see a gratifying shake-up that will turn out fine in the end. Contrary evidence is easily dismissed. Eurosceptics claim that a drop in high-street footfall, a drying-up of job adverts and the emergency lockdown of property funds are not because real economic damage is in prospect, but because of gloomy Europhiles talking Britain down. The convenient thing about this argument is that it can never be falsified: recessions can always be blamed on the lack of faith of unbelievers.
I’m as guilty as anyone of confirmation bias. Like most economists, I expected that the consequences of a Leave vote would be ugly. The immediate collapse of the pound and the FTSE 100 made me feel I was right, although really they demonstrated nothing more than the fact that traders shared my view. Yet when the FTSE 100 recovered, that did not reassure me at all. I recalled that the index contains largely global companies and says little about the UK’s economic prospects. I accepted bad news when it chimed with my beliefs, and dismissed good news when it did not.
Perhaps the most important lesson is that we spend too much energy trying to foretell the future, and too little trying to be resilient whatever happens. The referendum result was unpredictable but the likely short-term consequences of a Leave vote were perfectly clear. Former deputy prime minister Nick Clegg, aka “Mystic Clegg”, outlined them in an article on the eve of the referendum that now seems clairvoyant. But most of what Clegg wrote could have been foretold by any well-informed observer who bothered to think through the consequences.
…
Perhaps Clegg learnt the trick of thinking things through from Vince Cable, his former colleague. Cable and I briefly worked together in the scenario planning department at Shell, a fascinating place to think about the future. Rather than making forecasts, good scenario planners sketch out different possibilities and bring together people with different perspectives to work through the details. The end result will be several plausible, internally consistent and emotionally compelling stories about the future. The scenarios will highlight hidden connections and make distant consequences seem real. But, importantly, the scenarios will also contradict each other.
It’s time for more serious scenario thinking about the UK’s future in Europe. Because scenarios are persuasive stories, they can help us face up to uncomfortable prospects and think clearly about possibilities we would rather ignore. And because scenarios contradict each other, they force us to acknowledge that, in the end, we cannot actually see into the future. As a result, we move from a sterile question to a fertile one — from “What will happen?” to “What will we do if it does?”"
"So what happens now? As the aftershocks of the Brexit vote rumble on, people keep asking me to predict the future. I am not sure that is a useful exercise. But there’s a lot to be learnt from examining the recent past. The unexpected result has important lessons for anyone who wishes to see what might be ahead.
The first is that wishful thinking is surprisingly powerful. A few years ago, the economist Guy Mayraz conducted a simple experiment at Oxford university’s Centre for Experimental Social Science. Mayraz ran sessions in which the participants were shown 90 days of “wheat prices” (actually based on historical price data) and asked to predict the price of wheat on the 100th day. In addition to being paid for accurate forecasts, half the experimental subjects were told they were “bakers”, who would profit if the price of wheat fell, and half were “farmers”, who would make money if the price of wheat rose.
Logically, a farmer should make the same forecast as a baker, since the forecast does not change the outcome, and both of them are paid for accuracy. If people want to hedge even these small bets, farmers ought to forecast a lower price so that if the unwelcome outcome happens, at least they’re rewarded for their forecasting.
But that’s not what Mayraz found. Instead, nearly two-thirds of farmers predicted higher-than-average prices, and nearly two-thirds of bakers predicted lower-than-average prices. People tended to predict that their dreams would come true.
The same seems to have happened to Remain supporters — a group that included most of the British and international political and business establishment. Months before the vote, betting markets suggested that the chance of a Leave vote was about one-third. Given the likely consequences of such a vote — including the collapse of the pound, the resignation of the prime minister and a prolonged period of rudderless uncertainty — a one-third chance was worth taking seriously. Yet most of the elite seemed unwilling to countenance it. That is wishful thinking at its finest.
The betting markets, influenced as always by the weight of money, may have been displaying some wishful thinking of their own. Even during a mid-June run where nine out of 10 polls showed the Leave side ahead, the markets never gave Leave much more than a 40 per cent chance. With hindsight that seems odd.
The second lesson is that confirmation bias is everywhere: we are quite capable of clinging on to our beliefs by picking whatever facts support them. Remain voters now see the catastrophe they expected; Leave voters see a gratifying shake-up that will turn out fine in the end. Contrary evidence is easily dismissed. Eurosceptics claim that a drop in high-street footfall, a drying-up of job adverts and the emergency lockdown of property funds are not because real economic damage is in prospect, but because of gloomy Europhiles talking Britain down. The convenient thing about this argument is that it can never be falsified: recessions can always be blamed on the lack of faith of unbelievers.
I’m as guilty as anyone of confirmation bias. Like most economists, I expected that the consequences of a Leave vote would be ugly. The immediate collapse of the pound and the FTSE 100 made me feel I was right, although really they demonstrated nothing more than the fact that traders shared my view. Yet when the FTSE 100 recovered, that did not reassure me at all. I recalled that the index contains largely global companies and says little about the UK’s economic prospects. I accepted bad news when it chimed with my beliefs, and dismissed good news when it did not.
Perhaps the most important lesson is that we spend too much energy trying to foretell the future, and too little trying to be resilient whatever happens. The referendum result was unpredictable but the likely short-term consequences of a Leave vote were perfectly clear. Former deputy prime minister Nick Clegg, aka “Mystic Clegg”, outlined them in an article on the eve of the referendum that now seems clairvoyant. But most of what Clegg wrote could have been foretold by any well-informed observer who bothered to think through the consequences.
…
Perhaps Clegg learnt the trick of thinking things through from Vince Cable, his former colleague. Cable and I briefly worked together in the scenario planning department at Shell, a fascinating place to think about the future. Rather than making forecasts, good scenario planners sketch out different possibilities and bring together people with different perspectives to work through the details. The end result will be several plausible, internally consistent and emotionally compelling stories about the future. The scenarios will highlight hidden connections and make distant consequences seem real. But, importantly, the scenarios will also contradict each other.
It’s time for more serious scenario thinking about the UK’s future in Europe. Because scenarios are persuasive stories, they can help us face up to uncomfortable prospects and think clearly about possibilities we would rather ignore. And because scenarios contradict each other, they force us to acknowledge that, in the end, we cannot actually see into the future. As a result, we move from a sterile question to a fertile one — from “What will happen?” to “What will we do if it does?”"
Vince Cable qualificaton selling off the postal service too cheap, and Gideon's Uncle buying a large chunk and selling them on for profit, any Government is going to have trouible keeping snouts out of the trough in this country as we sell everything!
I work as a sales manager for a company, the largest in the world in it's product category. Been on a conference call this morning where we were told there would be a blanket 10% price increase as of September to retailers, due to Brexit. The last time something like this happened in the industry was 2008. Other large players in the industry are doing the same.
This will massively impact consumers in the fourth quarter of this year, at a time when money is already traditionally tight for people.
It will all be fine though. Boris said so.
This will massively impact consumers in the fourth quarter of this year, at a time when money is already traditionally tight for people.
It will all be fine though. Boris said so.
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