joey_macmo
Player Valuation: £35m
Survation have been the most accurate pollsters in the last few years, they had leave winning, no overall majority in 2017 & they currently have roughly a 6 point lead for remain.
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Survation have been the most accurate pollsters in the last few years, they had leave winning, no overall majority in 2017 & they currently have roughly a 6 point lead for remain.
joey_macmo
Player Valuation: £35m
Have you got a link?
I only ask because we've done all this before regarding the BOE and people not being able to read that they were talking about 2008
Edit: Yep its the same articles being talked about, Carney (nor anyone from BOE) did anything of the sort
Foot Long Hot Dog
Player Valuation: A packet of pork scratchings
My point exactly.
Take new car sales/registrations. The industry has been on it's arse/erratic for some time - but now of course it's exclusively attached to Brexit. Forget Diesel reasons etc, forget trends longer term...
It's Brexit. ALL Brexit.
Go back prior 2012, and peaks and troughs happen.
Firstly the ‘erratic’ sales rate pre 2012......the errrrmmm Worldwide crash of 2008 ring any bells like? New car sales fell off a cliff, they had a spike in late 2009 early 2010 due to the Govt scrappage scheme which was brought it to bail the industry out. That ended and the sales dipped again. As the economy recovered so did the sales....
Your graph ends in 2015, the market peaked at just shy of 2.7m in 2016, but then fell back to 2.5m in 2017, this year it’ll likely come in at around 2.3m. Some of that decline is down to the diesel issue an some due to consumer confidence.
Investment cycles in the industry aren’t based on the strength of the market in the present, manufacturers plan 5 years in advance for new model replacement and they’re making decisions today for cars that will hit the market in 3 years time. The wind back in investment in that sector in the U.K. is bugger all to do with the current reg stats and everything to do with the uncertainty of outcome regarding Brexit. They need to know what the outcome will be before investment will flow back in, and a no deal outcome will put the industry in this country at risk. The talk of BMW, Toyota and Nissan relocating resources and future production to other facilities if we lose frictionless component movement and end up with tariffs, isn’t part of ‘project fear’ its simple and basic business fundamentals that are driving those warnings.
Foot Long Hot Dog
Player Valuation: A packet of pork scratchings
Funnily enough Farage was given the Survation exit poll before he made his ‘gracious’ defeat speech a minute after the polls closed. Survation had Leave as winning and was the most accurate exit poll on the day. Funny that.
Something bad happened while in the EU?
Wow.
It doesn't.
So still above what it was for large parts before the referendum then?
I'm glad we agree it's not all doom and gloom, and it's not all brexit - because your initial post sounded very scary...
Foot Long Hot Dog
Player Valuation: A packet of pork scratchings
The worldwide crash.......there’s a clue in the title.
You’ve conflated sales figures with investment budgets, and my intital post was a simple fact, if you choose to apply an adjective to to it, then that’s your choice mate.
Sales is significant IMO.
Your simple fact in my opinion was unambiguous and needed scrutiny. Since doing so, you've accepted the mitigating factors and perhaps significantly - the UK is still selling more cars now than in some years prior the referendum.
Uncertainty no doubt impacts investment....
... - and yes, investment in Britains car industry has fell but there's much more to it than "That Brexit eh?"
this whole to and fro seems to be based on the idea that people are solely blaming Brexit for all negative aspects of the economy and while it's foolish to suggest that brexit is the sole cause of every economic woe, it also seems clear that brexit has lead to a weakening of sterling and a dip in consumer confidence so it would be equally foolish to deny that it plays a part in every economic woe. The size of that part is open to debate.
Er, try Googling it. Even the Guardian published it. If you go into the Guardian website and enter Mark Carney apology, you should find it.
orchard
Player Valuation: £60m
Like you say, Sterling was weakening long before the vote, but one would be crazy to invest foreign cash in the UK when sterling will probably weaken further in the near future.
orchard
Player Valuation: £60m
Global Opinions
The intellectual dishonesty of the Brexit Taliban is now in full view
By Carl BildtJuly 9 at 7:29 PM
Former UK foreign secretary Boris Johnson arrives at Downing Street for a cabinet meeting in London on July 3. (Andy Rain/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)
The United Kingdom is crashing into the fundamental intellectual dishonesty of its brave Brexit campaigners: No one on the pro-Brexit side had the courage or the competence to explain alternatives to membership in the European Union.
Now, after the resignations of lead Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, the UK’s political system is degenerating into a furious fistfight between advocates of different bad options. It’s ugly, and it’s likely to get worse.
More than two years have passed since the referendum, but Davis had not spent more than four hours in trying to negotiate with his E.U. counterpart Michel Barnier. And the clock is ticking: The UK is supposed to leave the E.U. by March 2019; there has to be an agreement on the exit terms and the transition period before October.
Brexit negotiations haven’t made any progress because the UK government has spent more time negotiating with itself rather than Brussels, which has simply had to wait for London to sort itself out.
Prime Minister Theresa May was supposed to bridge the divides in her cabinet, get some sort of realistic strategy on paper and get on with the key task of negotiating with Brussels. Initially, it looked as if the prime minister had managed to get everyone aboard for a shotgun agreement on some sort of policy. It didn’t last long. Now everything risks going up in flames.
May has tried to combine the rhetoric of “hard Brexit” with policies of a “soft Brexit,” which would have been difficult even under the best of circumstances. The resigning Brexiteers are not wrong in pointing out some of the flaws in the proposed deal. It tries to square a circle, which historically has always been tricky. Not being in the single market, but seeking to be for the sake of goods, was bound to be a tricky position both in terms of domestic public opinion and in the relationship with the remaining E.U. countries.
Are there options? A Norwegian-style model with a membership of the single market is technically possible, but it does include a painful democratic deficit that would be hard to swallow. Norway is a member of the E.U. single market and accordingly has to abide by all the rules that define this market, ranging from the minutiae to the massively important. But it’s the E.U. member states that decide the rules on the single market that Norway must follow. In fact, May seems to be seeking a semi-Norway solution for UK goods. But the E.U. is likely to want to go full-Norway.
Many industries have made clear that these economic issues are fundamental issues for them — Airbus is only the latest company that has started to speak up. Car companies are in the UK to produce not only for the UK, but also for the entire E.U. market; others are dependent on tightly integrated value chains with thousands of suppliers spread across the E.U. If their integrated market or production bases are suddenly fractured with tariffs, rules-of-origin procedures and unforeseen costs, it simply doesn’t work anymore. The world is a very competitive place, and deteriorating competitiveness due to new barriers and costs has a high price.
This is what has driven May toward her new approach. But not only does it clash with her “red-line” rhetoric, it also has infuriated the Brexit Taliban and is unlikely to fly with the remaining 27 E.U. countries.
So where is all this heading? The London betting firms might be as good — or as bad — in predicting what will happen as the political pundits and observers. It’s a profound mess — but there the agreement ends.
The worst possible outcome would be a UK that simply crashes out of the E.U. without an agreement. I still believe and hope that sanity will prevail and prevent this, but with the current turmoil, nothing can be excluded.
The entire Brexit process has demonstrated how integrated the E.U. economies and societies have become during their decades together and how intrusive in many different areas the divorce process really is — from nuclear safety to the possibility to travel across Europe with your favorite pets. To disentangle — say California or Texas — from the United States might only be marginally more difficult.
The United Kingdom has to choose between different bad options, and that is never a comfortable situation to be in. The UK’s government will be able to chart a course out of it only when it wakes up to the unpleasant realities of its predicament.
But we are not there yet.
The Chinese are pulling its money from construction projects in London. Construction in the UK is slow to say the least and now London is feeling the pinch.
Foot Long Hot Dog
Player Valuation: A packet of pork scratchings
No, there really isn’t.
Current U.K. sales don’t impact on model life cycles unless there’s a catastrophic world wide event like in ‘08.
Don’t forget that a high proportion of U.K. built vehicles aren’t for the U.K. market.
I’ve accepted no mitigating factors in the investment cycle - which was my point. I accepted there were mitigating factors in the sales volumes - which was yours, but my original point was solely about investment.
In 2015 the investment in U.K. automotive manufacturing was £2.5BN, in 2016 that had come down to £1.66BN, last year it was £1.1BN And in the first 6 months of 2018 it was £347m. Those are the facts, as are the warnings given out by all of the manufacturers with U.K. facilities.
Do you understand Just in time deliveries and how components cross the channel sometimes multiple times during the production process? If so, why don’t you get just why they’re so nervous about future long term investment in the U.K.? Combine that with potential tariffs for a large proportion of their production volume and anyone would be holding back on investment until there was some genuine clarity. It really ain’t that complicated.
orchard
Player Valuation: £60m
Yea, unless you've a sure thing to tie up, one would hold back on the relative strength of Sterling and potential desperation / government incentives to follow, nevermind the funtional logistics.
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
Boris hit the nail right on the head with his ‘suffocated by needless self-doubt’ comment, personally I think he could have gone further and named a couple of ministers as ‘defeatist cowards’.....
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