ECHO Comment: "Fears of Witch-hunt Against Liverpool FC" part 3

Salah in the running for the Ballon d'Or.....alongside Mason Mount and Bruno Fernandez on a 30 man short-list.

He has no chance of winning, but the uproar if the Egyptian King isn't top 3 will be off the Richter scale.
 
Saint Domingo said:
Liverpool is a maxed out asset. Any prospective buyer has to pay an eye watering price for a club that’s as good as it will ever be. There’s no scope to work on the stadium, there’s no levers left to pull on revenue, and yet all the time the fans demand more and more spending and success.

Newcastle (similar to Everton) only have an upside as long as they avoid relegation . Moshiri and the Saudis have picked them up knowing that they can return them to Europe and massively increase commercial revenue to increase the value of the club. I can’t remember how much Moshiri put in but I’m willing to bet that the value of his investment has increased hugely and he’s not even moved us forward yet.
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Essentially yes. I mean I don't know who wrote the post, and you can't really expect a sports writer to understand investments, but you would not really expect them to start commenting on things they clearly don't know.

FSG have extracted intrinsic value out of it. I've read in some places they would want over 1bn for Liverpool. They are crazy numbers, and no wonder no Sheikh was interested when they sold a section of the business. There is very little upside, on a business cycle they are well into the maturation stage of the cycle. Manchester United are too, but United are just a bigger club with a far bigger commercial profile, so you kind of know with them that you are buying into that. Even when they were rubbish, they were still a bigger club than Liverpool (and everyone else). So they are (from a commercial angle) a blue chip stock.

FSG have no intention to sell. They re-affirmed their commitment when working with Red Ball that it was a long term commitment, and it is their main investment vehicle. They are good at it, and have risen value. They may dilute and sell some shares again, to try and claw back some ROIC/ROE but they can just bleed the asset, so why sell?

If someone were to move for Liverpool, it would likely be a fellow American, who would probably leverage a buy out (akin to United).
 
davek said:
That stadium of theirs is being reconstructed for a future sale. FSG have obvioulsy looked at increasing capacity to a point where they stand some comparison with the stadium capacity of their competitors. But that's at best two seasons away. After the failure of the Euro Scab League FSG wont hang around too much longer after that. The big plan was always to get massive increases for the rights to broadcast Liverpool games and that's failed. Their problem in selling up, as I see it, is the fans. No potential owner will see that lot and want part of the volatility they bring. One or two seasons out of the trophies and they'll cause trouble for any owners. FSG only came in on the back of not being Hicks and Gillett and as heroes to the rescue...and even they're getting grief now after a poor season and no spending. It's a poison chalice. The Geordies are just as volatile, but the Saudi/Staveley takeover up in Newcastle hands them, for now, the same fan leverage after Ashley.

Everton will get a buyer with a river-side stadium. I dont doubt that. It'd probably be better for continuity though if the devil we know, Uzmanov, made his appearance from behind curtains and really started investing at that point. If Newcastle can get mass murders over the line as owners of their club, a warlord should have no problem either. The constant threat of sanctions against him might boost that: Everton can offer him a reputation launder in the same way Abramovich got one. Or maybe he just stays in the shadows and replaces Moshiri with a new proxy.

We can only stay on the edge of this Newcastle kerfuffle right now and watch on as the established 'elite' struggle to come to terms with it. I see it as their problem more than ours right at this minute.
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On the 2 points, and at the risk of repeating myself (as I did the post above) I think FSG are quite committed. Anfield is not a new stadium, which for whatever reason investors like. Essentially it's much harder to monetise existing stadiums. They tried it with the 70 quid tickets, but people are used to paying 30 or whatever, so kick up a fuss. You build a new stadium, you create new rules and it's much easier to monetise. To a certain degree, they could probably make a killing, I'd be extremely jealous if they were building a new stadium, as they could grow revenues hugely, but that will be hard at Anfield.

I think FSG stay, but if they sell, given the nature of the business (essentially a solid company rather than a growth one) it will likely attract American investors who will see it as an opportunity to take some cash out to cover the asset. The wealthy businessmen from the middle east have avoided stellar names-ie United, Liverpool, Arsenal etc and there's a reason for that. They like to acquire a club at a cheap price, under valued, where they can grow the asset from scratch and make themselves household names. It just doesn't fit that profile.

As for us, Usmanov may formalise. I suspect he and Moshiri would like to sell some equity off to wealthy Chinese co-investors. They may sell the whole club though. For a wealthy Middle eastern owner, getting not only the club, but a new ground, in a prime location in one of the greatest city's in Europe will be a massive appeal. Think about what you could stick there, to be seen from tourists and visitors all over the world, and the influence you could get. You just won't get that same opportunity in Walton/Anfield. Location, location, location and all that.

Aside from the investment stuff, there is only enough room for so many apex predators. If one emerges, it will just kick another one out. Of the existing top 4 teams, it's easy to see who doesn't have the financial backing to keep up.
 
catcherintherye said:
On the 2 points, and at the risk of repeating myself (as I did the post above) I think FSG are quite committed. Anfield is not a new stadium, which for whatever reason investors like. Essentially it's much harder to monetise existing stadiums. They tried it with the 70 quid tickets, but people are used to paying 30 or whatever, so kick up a fuss. You build a new stadium, you create new rules and it's much easier to monetise. To a certain degree, they could probably make a killing, I'd be extremely jealous if they were building a new stadium, as they could grow revenues hugely, but that will be hard at Anfield.

I think FSG stay, but if they sell, given the nature of the business (essentially a solid company rather than a growth one) it will likely attract American investors who will see it as an opportunity to take some cash out to cover the asset. The wealthy businessmen from the middle east have avoided stellar names-ie United, Liverpool, Arsenal etc and there's a reason for that. They like to acquire a club at a cheap price, under valued, where they can grow the asset from scratch and make themselves household names. It just doesn't fit that profile.
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I'm not sure the primary aim of takeover in the cases of City and Newcastle is to make cash. Clubs are seen as political capital and fit into regional rivalries and building / rebuilding reputations in the west. No doubt they'll be run to be self financing after a period of massive success, but that's almost by-the-by. The wealth of the Saudis and the UAE are ridiculous.

Takeovers like that I really dont factor in the desire to turn a profit.

catcherintherye said:
As for us, Usmanov may formalise. I suspect he and Moshiri would like to sell some equity off to wealthy Chinese co-investors. They may sell the whole club though. For a wealthy Middle eastern owner, getting not only the club, but a new ground, in a prime location in one of the greatest city's in Europe will be a massive appeal. Think about what you could stick there, to be seen from tourists and visitors all over the world, and the influence you could get. You just won't get that same opportunity in Walton/Anfield. Location, location, location and all that.

Aside from the investment stuff, there is only enough room for so many apex predators. If one emerges, it will just kick another one out. Of the existing top 4 teams, it's easy to see who doesn't have the financial backing to keep up.
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We've stood out in the most successful football region in the world (the north west of England) like a sore thumb for many years. We are the last one that will take off into the stratosphere in the new age of money. It will happen. We'll have the stadium soon (capacity suddenly looks a bit of a problem though, I'd say), and Uzmanov has the wherewithal. But if he wants to sell up on stadium completion there wont be a shortage of buyers.
 
davek said:
I'm not sure the primary aim of takeover in the cases of City and Newcastle is to make cash. Clubs are seen as political capital and fit into regional rivalries and building / rebuilding reputations in the west. No doubt they'll be run to be self financing after a period of massive success, but that's almost by-the-by. The wealth of the Saudis and the UAE are ridiculous.

Takeovers like that I really dont factor in the desire to turn a profit.


We've stood out in the most successful football region in the world (the north west of England) like a sore thumb for many years. We are the last one that will take off into the stratosphere in the new age of money. It will happen. We'll have the stadium soon (capacity suddenly looks a bit of a problem though, I'd say), and Uzmanov has the wherewithal. But if he wants to sell up on stadium completion there wont be a shortage of buyers.
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I'll be honest, and people won't want to hear it, but stadium prices will just be increased massively.
 

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