US president’s decision to revoke oil sanctions waivers could push Tehran to war
https://www.ft.com/content/a40ec2e0-672a-11e9-9adc-98bf1d35a056
Always give your enemy a way out, Sun Tzu advised.
One by one US president Donald Trump is closing the exits for Iran’s regime. Next week Washington will revoke waivers to Iran’s five remaining oil export markets. Earlier this month Mr Trump declared Iran’s Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organisation. In the coming weeks the US will unveil more sanctions on top of the barrage it imposed last year after quitting the Iran nuclear deal.
As non-declarations of war go, Mr Trump’s gauntlet comes very close to the edge. There is little — barring internal regime change — that Iran can do to comply.
The question is why. Mr Trump has largely fulfilled his vow to quit America’s “endless wars” and not to start any new ones. He plans to pull out of Afghanistan and is withdrawing from Syria. Another war in the Middle East — particularly with Iran, whose military clout puts Saddam Hussein’s Iraq into the shade — would blow Mr Trump’s vow to pieces. The last thing Mr Trump’s voters want is a new war of choice. Yet he seems to be goading Iran into precisely that.
Equally puzzling is that it undercuts Mr Trump’s other foreign policy goals. The largest of these is to conclude a trade deal with China in the coming weeks. Mr Trump has said he will impose secondary sanctions on China if it continues to import Iranian oil. This will jeopardise prospects for a US-China trade deal.
Moreover, it would reinforce China’s view that the US is never to be trusted. Iran remains in compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal to which China is a signatory. No one else followed America’s unilateral withdrawal.
Mr Trump would also hit Japan and South Korea with sanctions, both energy-importing US allies. The same applies to Turkey, whose help Mr Trump needs to complete America’s extrication from Syria. The fifth country, India, is in the midst of a general election. It imports more oil from Iran than the others. India serves as a natural American bulwark against a rising China. Punishment such as this might prompt a rethink in New Delhi.
Moreover, Mr Trump’s motives do not seem to be his own. At home the Iran war party is led by John Bolton, national security adviser, and Mike Pompeo, secretary of state.
It is no coincidence that Mr Trump pulled out of the deal a year ago shortly after both men had started their jobs. Mr Bolton has long agitated to overthrow Iran’s regime. Last year Mr Pompeo issued a list of 12 demands Iran must meet to ease American pressure. It reads more like a charter for surrender. These included closing Iran’s missile programme and opening up all its military sites to inspectors.
The theory is that Iran’s economy, which was already forecast to shrink 6 per cent this year before Mr Trump’s latest step, will be starved into submission. Shutting off all oil exports would push Iran into depression. “These are going to be the strongest sanctions in history after we have finished,” said Mr Pompeo. Recommended Oil What does the end of US waivers on Iran’s oil exports mean?
In practice, however, Iran may be tempted to become more belligerent. That seems to be what the overseas war party, led by Saudi Arabia and Israel, is betting on. This week, Iran threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, which would trigger a steep rise in world oil prices. It would also bring the US to the brink of war with Iran.
It is not clear whether Mr Trump understands this. It is a fair bet that Saudi Arabia and Israel grasp the implications very well. What they may not grasp — or much care about — is the damage to America’s power. Mr Trump’s escalation is further upsetting US allies in Asia and Europe, where Britain, Germany and France are sticking to the Iran deal. It is undercutting Mr Trump’s attempts to persuade Kim Jong Un’s North Korea to denuclearise by punishing the players — China, Japan and South Korea — the US most needs to bring him to the table.
It also goes against Mr Trump’s plea for lower oil prices. Last month Mr Trump said in a tweet: “World cannot afford an oil price hike — fragile!”
The Saudis, by contrast, are eyeing a win-win situation. Any US conflict with Iran would damage Saudi Arabia’s arch-enemy and boost Riyadh’s oil revenues.
Mr Bolton and Mr Pompeo also seem to know what they are doing. The big question is whether Mr Trump understands the journey he has embarked on.
