Current Affairs Donald Trump POS: Judgement cometh and that right soon

[LinekersLegs]

Strangely enough I think he will be on a vote winner with his proposed tariffs, and would become a hero if he put them on cars........

I just brought a washing machine as my old one finally failed. Despite shopping around for the best deal even the salesguy who I brought it from was saying it was a pity that it hadn’t failed a couple of months previous as the recent tariffs on LG washers had raised the prices on all models and dried up some of the discount offers, despite the fact I was buying a Maytag which is an American company. He was expecting the steel and aluminum tariffs to raise the prices on all his other appliances - he was pretty annoyed as he expected it to slow his business. Am pretty sure car dealership guys will be similarly forthcoming to their prospective buyers about the reasons for any price rises whether completely true or not.

The solar tariffs have already caused some job losses
http://thehill.com/business-a-lobby...yoff-nearly-10-of-workforce-following-tariffs

It won’t take long for the new tariffs to show up in most people’s lives even if it is just their weekly grocery bill but some states are likely to be hit more than average.

This map shows which states had the most disproportionate shares of steel and aluminum imports in 2017.

 

[dholliday]

But she would only win 1 term and that's all she would have - because the Republican Congress (both houses) would be investigating her 24/7/365 until the next election. Nothing would move for her legislatively. But then, we'd certainly have better foreign relations, a more competent White House, fewer bungles, gaffs and lawsuits.

Kind of like how Trump is being investigated 24/7/365 until the next election.

Better foreign relations? She's war mad. We (the Western world) would be mired in much more conflict by now. This is accepted wisdom by those who know her foreign policies.

 

[peteblue]

Toyota, nissan, honda, subaru, mazda, Hyundai, fiat, VW, Kia, Volvo and BMW all have huge plants here. That's alot of employment, mostly in red states.

So they shouldn’t be affected then, perhaps on imported components, I thought his aim would be on cars fully manufactured abroad.......that would encourage more USA manufacture and not cheap exports made in Mexico.....

 

[peteblue]

I just brought a washing machine as my old one finally failed. Despite shopping around for the best deal even the salesguy who I brought it from was saying it was a pity that it hadn’t failed a couple of months previous as the recent tariffs on LG washers had raised the prices on all models and dried up some of the discount offers, despite the fact I was buying a Maytag which is an American company. He was expecting the steel and aluminum tariffs to raise the prices on all his other appliances - he was pretty annoyed as he expected it to slow his business. Am pretty sure car dealership guys will be similarly forthcoming to their prospective buyers about the reasons for any price rises whether completely true or not.

The solar tariffs have already caused some job losses
http://thehill.com/business-a-lobby...yoff-nearly-10-of-workforce-following-tariffs

It won’t take long for the new tariffs to show up in most people’s lives even if it is just their weekly grocery bill but some states are likely to be hit more than average.

This map shows which states had the most disproportionate shares of steel and aluminum imports in 2017.

Sneaky barstewards......

 

[Ruairi77]

So they shouldn’t be affected then, perhaps on imported components, I thought his aim would be on cars fully manufactured abroad.......that would encourage more USA manufacture and not cheap exports made in Mexico.....

Mexico and Canada will be exempt from these tariffs and most foreign cars that dont have a factory here, dont have a presence here, like Renault or Peugeot.
So really it's the US manufacturers who'll get hit when other markets retaliate.

 

[ilikecheese]

Against Hillary? I don't think so. Against someone else is another matter.

HILLARY CLINTON WILL CAMPAIGN FOR DEMOCRATS IN 2018 DESPITE BEING EVEN LESS POPULAR THAN TRUMP

Well hard to honestly tell. But it's a fair point.

I suspect many that sat at home in key swing states wouldn't do it again. Key urban areas, that while still overwhelming supported Clinton, just didn't turn up at the polls. Milwaukee County in Wisconsin is a very good example. People just sat at home on both sides...a killer for Dems in that sort of County.

Clinton won the county by the same margin that Obama did...big problem when over 50000 fewer voters show up at the polls.

For me Milwaukee County is a perfect example of where Russian meddling made the biggest difference. People said screw it and didn't plug their nose for either candidate.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Sneaky barstewards......

Tariffs, at least those that are implemented like this without a clear and narrow rationale rarely last for long, either because they are legally overturned or because the retaliations bring around a change of mind. So they rarely bring about a change in manufacturing decisions beacuse of the long turnaround time to implement the structural changes - even reopending a mothballed plant can take months let alone expanding/building new facilities. Bush Jnr did some similar steel tariffs in 2002, they were meant to last 3years but only lasted until 2003 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...mp-not-to-do-the-same/?utm_term=.239a003fb34f and overall are estimated to have been a $30 million hit to the economy.

However changes in end user prices are easy and quick to implement, if one of your competitors price has gone up by 10% due to the tariffs it is very tempting to raise yours by 5% and assume that any dropoff in your demand due to the price rise will be balanced by gaining market share from your more expensive competitor.

 

[MrPerfectNot]

Kind of like how Trump is being investigated 24/7/365 until the next election.

Better foreign relations? She's war mad. We (the Western world) would be mired in much more conflict by now. This is accepted wisdom by those who know her foreign policies.

I can't speak with the royal We in pretending to speak for the entire Western world and your proclaimed accepted wisdom.

How about supporting these assertions re the Western world and accepted wisdom, without using more unsupported assertions?

 

[dholliday]

For me Milwaukee County is a perfect example of where Russian meddling made the biggest difference. People said screw it and didn't plug their nose for either candidate.

I liked the majority of your response as it made sense, but I'm not getting this bit. Maybe because I haven't read up enough on the subject, but how did Russian meddling make a difference in Milwaukee and what kind of meddling was it specifically?

I can't speak with the royal We in pretending to speak for the entire Western world and your proclaimed accepted wisdom.

How about supporting these assertions re the Western world and accepted wisdom, without using more unsupported assertions?

This is a reaction of a bloodthirsty psycho:



She was also Obama's Sec. of State and fully supportive of his foreign policy regime which was characterised by Kill Lists, untold thousands of innocent deaths via drone bombs and more Arab strife then we've had in our lifetimes.

I think if you ask anyone who isn't a loyal Clinton/Trump supporter who from the two would've made the world a more dangerous place the answer might surprise you...

 

[LinekersLegs]

Well hard to honestly tell. But it's a fair point.

I suspect many that sat at home in key swing states wouldn't do it again. Key urban areas, that while still overwhelming supported Clinton, just didn't turn up at the polls. Milwaukee County in Wisconsin is a very good example. People just sat at home on both sides...a killer for Dems in that sort of County.

Clinton won the county by the same margin that Obama did...big problem when over 50000 fewer voters show up at the polls.

For me Milwaukee County is a perfect example of where Russian meddling made the biggest difference. People said screw it and didn't plug their nose for either candidate.

Much of the final two weeks of the campaign was focused on the reopened investigation into Clinton emails, it definitely re-energized a lot of Trump supoorters who had been demoralized by the Access Hollywood tape and sexual abuse allegations.

Hard to believe that it wouldn’t have altered at least some people’s voting and certainly the media coverage if it had been common knowledge that a) Trump’s campaign was under FBI investigation for Russia collusion b) Trump was trying to silence a porn star.

 

[mezzrow]

If there was a presidential-election vote right now, and Hillary was again the Dem candidate, how would it go?

@verreauxi @mezzrow @ilikecheese @LinekersLegs @MrPerfectNot @Pettifogger @steveojcc

Personally I think Trump would win even more clearly. That's got to tell us something.

There isn't, she isn't, but... I agree, with current conditions in play. Surprised to see this, as I believed the numbers were about the reverse of what's reported at the link below. Guess I've been reading the local paper too much.

http://sunshinestatenews.com/story/rick-scott-besting-bill-nelson-new-poll

 

[Pettifogger]

If there was a presidential-election vote right now, and Hillary was again the Dem candidate, how would it go?

@verreauxi @mezzrow @ilikecheese @LinekersLegs @MrPerfectNot @Pettifogger @steveojcc

Personally I think Trump would win even more clearly. That's got to tell us something.

He'd win not only against Hillary, but against most of the names tossed around for the 2020 nomination.

 

[mezzrow]

He'd win not only against Hillary, but against most of the names tossed around for the 2020 nomination.

Wait for it.

 

[LinekersLegs]

He'd win not only against Hillary, but against most of the names tossed around for the 2020 nomination.

There are significant advantages in being a candidate running for re-election as we've discussed before. Not only will the specific Dem nominee be important but also what the state of the economy is then - the president usually gets the credit/blame whether deserved or not.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...tant-trump-voters-with-him/?ex_cid=538twitter
Last spring, FiveThirtyEight commissioned a SurveyMonkey poll that aimed to glean the views of voters who cast their ballots for President Trump but did so unenthusiastically. We called them “reluctant” Trump voters; they were crucial in Trump’s victory, and we’ve been keeping tabs on this voter demographic over the year, including a new survey conducted Feb. 12-19.The poll was conducted among a national sample of 7,169 adults, including 476 reluctant Trump voters and 2,007 more enthusiastic Trump voters. You can see the full questionnaire here and the data here.
Who are reluctant Trump voters? They make up about a fifth of the president’s 2016 coalition, and they are predominantly white — as are most of his supporters. But compared with other Trump voters, this reluctant group is slightly more likely to have a college education, call themselves politically moderate and identify as independent.

More than one year in, reluctant Trump voters are generally still happy that they voted for Trump. In the most recent survey, 57 percent of reluctant Trump voters said they had no regrets about their vote, though 28 percent said the jury was still out. For a comparison, 83 percent of all Trump voters said they had no regrets, while 11 percent said the jury was still out.

Most importantly, our latest survey shows that the president is making some inroads with these reluctant Trump voters, however gradual, and that the economy is a big reason why. In April of last year,To be exact, the poll was conducted from March 31 through April 7, 2017.
our survey found that only 14 percent of reluctant Trump voters strongly approved of the job the president was doing. In the latest iteration of the survey, that number had ticked up to 22 percent. This could be due in part to reluctant Trump voters’ views of the economy and their perceptions of Trump’s handling of it. Last April, 87 percent of reluctant Trump voters approved of the way the president was handling the economy, with 29 percent “strongly” approving and 58 percent “somewhat” approving. Last month, two months after the passage of the Republican tax bill, 84 percent of reluctant Trump voters said they approved of the way the president was handling the economy, but there was a notable jump in the percentage who “strongly” approved — it was up to 40 percent from 29.

This is all obviously good news for Trump, but it also entails some risk. Our survey was conducted before Trump’s surprise announcement last week that he would impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, potentially setting off an international trade war. The move would fly in the face of Republican orthodoxy on free trade. It led Trump’s chief economic adviser, Gary Cohn, to announce his resignation, and it drew a rare public rebuke from House Speaker Paul Ryan. It’s unclear how imposing tariffs might affect reluctant Trump voters’ views on his handling of the economy, but if a trade war dampens economic growth, this is the part of the president’s coalition that could be most at risk of abandoning him.

 

[ilikecheese]

I liked the majority of your response as it made sense, but I'm not getting this bit. Maybe because I haven't read up enough on the subject, but how did Russian meddling make a difference in Milwaukee and what kind of meddling was it specifically?

I think it's down to several factors.

I don't have time to go into detail right now. In a nutshell in a place like Milwaukee the meddling created voter suppression. People didn't plug their nose and vote. If the same number of voters turned up in 2016 as did in in 2012 Clinton would have gotten and additional 19k votes over Trump in that one county. The state was won by Trump by about 23k votes.

Interesting to note that Cruz and Sanders handily won the primaries in this state as well.