Donald Trump for President Thread

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Kurt said:
Scouse logic.... let's go wales and shag dirty minging easy birds.

Welsh logic... Lets go Liverpool and do all the smart birds whilst the scallies are in Rhyl chasing scruffs.



Winners all round x
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LinekersLegs said:
I'm pretty resigned to Iowa voting for Trump but the rest of the Midwest really confuses me. As you say Trump's GOTV is weak and he even had feuds with the state GOP parties like in Ohio (Kaisch) and Wisconsin (Ryan) which can't have helped it either but his trade policies do seem popular in the region. Think the lack of some decent state polls and/or large scale early voting has me adding more uncertain about turnout and which way college educated/third party voters will break.
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Can't speak for Ohio, but Wisconsin seems to have some unique resistance to Trump that other Midwestern states haven't had, despite having demographics that would favor him otherwise.

There are really two main factions of the WisGOP, Milwaukee suburbanites and rural voters. Rural voters voted hard for Trump in the primary, Milwaukee suburbs voted even harder against him. Cruz won big and Kasich took home a big chunk as well. While it seems like a lot of #NeverTrump'ers have come home in the end (hence "the tightening"), there seems to be a larger-than-normal portion of them in Wisconsin that aren't.

The other big note: Wisconsin polling has a history of being incredibly accurate, which is more than what can be said about Michigan as you mentioned earlier. What's going on there, I have no idea.

We are watching a fascinating shift in voting patterns by region, though. We'll see the South turn purple as the Midwest goes red over the next few cycles. I think North Carolina is just the beginning. Watch for Arizona, Georgia, and yes even Texas becoming competitive as Ohio, Iowa, Indiana, and perhaps even Wisconsin slip into lean-Republican territory.

The demographic and economic changes all point to it, we just haven't seen the end results show up in an election yet.
 
wm02 said:
Michigan tightening is interesting too especially given the polling errors in the Democratic primary this year. Both Clinton and Trump struggled in the Midwest during the primaries
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We're rambunctious characters over here, what can I say?

(Despite now living in Texas, I absentee voted in Wisconsin one last time this election. I'll be full Texan by 2018, no worries.)
 
Garrick said:
Can't speak for Ohio, but Wisconsin seems to have some unique resistance to Trump that other Midwestern states haven't had, despite having demographics that would favor him otherwise.

There are really two main factions of the WisGOP, Milwaukee suburbanites and rural voters. Rural voters voted hard for Trump in the primary, Milwaukee suburbs voted even harder against him. Cruz won big and Kasich took home a big chunk as well. While it seems like a lot of #NeverTrump'ers have come home in the end (hence "the tightening"), there seems to be a larger-than-normal portion of them in Wisconsin that aren't.

The other big note: Wisconsin polling has a history of being incredibly accurate, which is more than what can be said about Michigan as you mentioned earlier. What's going on there, I have no idea.

We are watching a fascinating shift in voting patterns by region, though. We'll see the South turn purple as the Midwest goes red over the next few cycles. I think North Carolina is just the beginning. Watch for Arizona, Georgia, and yes even Texas becoming competitive as Ohio, Iowa, Indiana, and perhaps even Wisconsin slip into lean-Republican territory.

The demographic and economic changes all point to it, we just haven't seen the end results show up in an election yet.
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The voting pattern shifts are truly fascinating, hard to believe that California was reliably red not long ago and now probably the most blue states in the nation. Texas a swing state in 8 years?
 
Garrick said:
We're rambunctious characters over here, what can I say?

(Despite now living in Texas, I absentee voted in Wisconsin one last time this election. I'll be full Texan by 2018, no worries.)
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The gerrymandering in Austin is sickening...Republicans chopping up one of the few bastions of liberal in that state.

Wish they'd get an independent panel to rework the congressional districts there.

California did it.
 
Garrick said:
Can't speak for Ohio, but Wisconsin seems to have some unique resistance to Trump that other Midwestern states haven't had, despite having demographics that would favor him otherwise.

There are really two main factions of the WisGOP, Milwaukee suburbanites and rural voters. Rural voters voted hard for Trump in the primary, Milwaukee suburbs voted even harder against him. Cruz won big and Kasich took home a big chunk as well. While it seems like a lot of #NeverTrump'ers have come home in the end (hence "the tightening"), there seems to be a larger-than-normal portion of them in Wisconsin that aren't.

The other big note: Wisconsin polling has a history of being incredibly accurate, which is more than what can be said about Michigan as you mentioned earlier. What's going on there, I have no idea.

We are watching a fascinating shift in voting patterns by region, though. We'll see the South turn purple as the Midwest goes red over the next few cycles. I think North Carolina is just the beginning. Watch for Arizona, Georgia, and yes even Texas becoming competitive as Ohio, Iowa, Indiana, and perhaps even Wisconsin slip into lean-Republican territory.

The demographic and economic changes all point to it, we just haven't seen the end results show up in an election yet.
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What are the causes of traditionally Republican states edging towards purple?
 
LinekersLegs said:
The voting pattern shifts are truly fascinating, hard to believe that California was reliably red not long ago and now probably the most blue states in the nation. Texas a swing state in 8 years?
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Wow, really?! That's incredible. I just assumed that California had always been one of America's most left-wing states.

What happened?
 
gorgeousgeorgeEFC said:
What are the causes of traditionally Republican states edging towards purple?
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Fast increasing non-White populations. A giant influx of college educated whites from every other region of the country. Rapid urbanization. Increasingly diversified tech-based economies.

You go back 20 or 30 years and places like Milwaukee and Cleveland were economic powerhouses poised for greatness while Austin and Raleigh were mostly insignificant backwaters. Now while the former sit in stagnation, the latter are two of the fastest growing cities in the country.

Bad economic times lead to nationalism and trade protectionism. The South was crap for decades while the Upper Midwest was one of the world's premier manufacturing regions. And now the tides have turned.
 
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