Donald Trump for President Thread

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longers said:
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Garrick said:
There's no official party ID in Wisconsin like in Nevada, but early voting looks very good for Dems there as well.

Early voting is up everywhere, but it's up by a much, much higher margin in Milwaukee and Dane counties (Milwaukee and Madison, the two largest cities and most heavily Democratic areas of the state) than it is in the "WOW" (Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington) counties, which comprise the vast majority of the Milwaukee suburbs and is the state's primary (if not only) Republican stronghold.

Early voting is also heavily up in Texas but it seems to be up everywhere, in both traditionally Democratic and Republican counties. I don't think any outlets down here are tracking statewide early voter turnout, but all early signs say whispers of a purple Texas are still distant in 2016.

Those are the two states I have intimate knowledge of. Just as a reminder Clinton can win with this map:

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So basically it will take some nationwide polling error across all polling firms for Trump to win. And given the other factors at play (ground game, specifically), I'd say a larger-than-expected Clinton win is in the cards.



Nobody really cares outside of right-wing media circles. Most of the talk has centered around how Comey's letter doesn't actually change anything. It continues to be unfounded and now the FBI has been taking fire for meddling in elections.
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I'm pretty resigned to Iowa voting for Trump but the rest of the Midwest really confuses me. As you say Trump's GOTV is weak and he even had feuds with the state GOP parties like in Ohio (Kaisch) and Wisconsin (Ryan) which can't have helped it either but his trade policies do seem popular in the region. Think the lack of some decent state polls and/or large scale early voting has me adding more uncertain about turnout and which way college educated/third party voters will break.
 
LinekersLegs said:
I'm pretty resigned to Iowa voting for Trump but the rest of the Midwest really confuses me. As you say Trump's GOTV is weak and he even had feuds with the state GOP parties like in Ohio (Kaisch) and Wisconsin (Ryan) which can't have helped it either but his trade policies do seem popular in the region. Think the lack of some decent state polls and/or large scale early voting has me adding more uncertain about turnout and which way college educated/third party voters will break.
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Michigan tightening is interesting too especially given the polling errors in the Democratic primary this year. Both Clinton and Trump struggled in the Midwest during the primaries
 
wm02 said:
Michigan tightening is interesting too especially given the polling errors in the Democratic primary this year. Both Clinton and Trump struggled in the Midwest during the primaries
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Campaign visits are interesting too


Of course it could all be a headfake to get Trump to spend time there or it could be a real softening - would love to see some of the internal polls!
 
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