do the map and show us
Donald Trump for President Thread
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So polls apart (excuse the pun)................ what is the general consensus of opinion how this will go ?
Will do. Have to do the bedtime routine with the kids firstdo the map and show us
I can't see it being as close, either way. If there is a national trend for Trump to win then he will win states nobody is expecting. More likely Hillary wins with around 300ish electoral votes to 200ish for me.
With 3 days to go, I'll go with this as of today. I'll update again in a couple of days if I see changes.
Would rate Nevada as v likely Clinton, guy I trust (called 2010,2012,2014 and a couple of those against the grain of other polling) is very confident.
http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog
Overall Southern states seem to be safer than the Midwest, like NC and/or Fl, whereas a bit nervous on African American/millennial turnout up north - hard to judge with little early voting there.
davek
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It's hard to tell because the msm and their corporate owners want to give the impression it's Clintons to lose, but though I think Clinton will probably win I still have doubts about her getting the Bernie people voting in droves for her or the African American vote. Probably wins it with the massive gender imbalance in her favour. Watch out for the shy Trump voters through. Our last two big ballot box events have underlined it will be a real factor. There may be 3 or 4 per cent to wring out for Trump there.
What a choice those people have.
What a choice those people have.
What's with this email scandal though ? I thought she was losing some ground ............ or will that be brushed under the carpet till after the vote ?
do the map!
May have made it closer. The other element, and I am trying to find a way Trump may win, is if there is a silent Trump vote happening, much like with the Brexit. Clutching at straws, but a few pundits are saying it's possible.
There were definitely shy Trump voters in the primary - evidence was a difference between the results of online and live call polls. However same effect hasn't been repeated in the general, number who say they supoort him are pretty much the same given both types. Probably because now Trump is running against a candidate with her own popularity problems.
If had to guess would say a shy Clinton vote might actually be more likely, saw some data where husbands thought their wife was going to vote Trump but the wife had other ideas....
Am guessing the same map as @wm02
Although in my nervous moments it is this with one of the Midwest heavyweights like Michigan also in gray (the pollsters in that state are a comparatively poor bunch and there has been infrequent polling)
Garrick
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There's no official party ID in Wisconsin like in Nevada, but early voting looks very good for Dems there as well.
Early voting is up everywhere, but it's up by a much, much higher margin in Milwaukee and Dane counties (Milwaukee and Madison, the two largest cities and most heavily Democratic areas of the state) than it is in the "WOW" (Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington) counties, which comprise the vast majority of the Milwaukee suburbs and is the state's primary (if not only) Republican stronghold.
Early voting is also heavily up in Texas but it seems to be up everywhere, in both traditionally Democratic and Republican counties. I don't think any outlets down here are tracking statewide early voter turnout, but all early signs say whispers of a purple Texas are still distant in 2016.
Those are the two states I have intimate knowledge of. Just as a reminder Clinton can win with this map:
So basically it will take some nationwide polling error across all polling firms for Trump to win. And given the other factors at play (ground game, specifically), I'd say a larger-than-expected Clinton win is in the cards.
Nobody really cares outside of right-wing media circles. Most of the talk has centered around how Comey's letter doesn't actually change anything. It continues to be unfounded and now the FBI has been taking fire for meddling in elections.
Yep. Barring any of the surprises mentioned above that would be close.
davek
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I don't think she's quite as toxic as Trump though (although she should be given the decisions she made in office). She's mainstream and I doubt anyone considering voting for her would be too bashful about saying so.
IMO, Trump will either squeak it or it'll be a landslide for Clinton.
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