2025/26 David Moyes

[Bluepablo]

Go back a decade, a team outside of the top six has won the FA Cup twice. Do the same thing for the last 10 years of the League Cup and there's only Newcastle and their Saudi Millions last year.

Winning a cup if you aren't a top team is massively difficult.

In the last ten years a non top 6 side has made the final in the FA Cup only 4 times out of twenty possible (2x Crystal Palace, 1 each for Leicester and Watford).

Do the same for the League Cup and of the last 20 finalists and again only 4 times has it been a non top 6 team (2 of which are Newcastle post Saudi takeover... The others are Villa and Southampton).

Just getting to a final is extremely difficult for a club of our size.

So that’s 8 times in the last 20 years over the 2 competitions, a 40% chance. Worth a go I would think.

 

[Efcjake]

So that’s 8 times in the last 20 years over the 2 competitions, a 40% chance. Worth a go I would think.

That's not how the maths work at all.

I hope you don't gamble.

I know nobody wants to read it but the point I am getting at is that it is simply far more likely that the cup finalists are top 6 teams. I'm not saying we shouldn't try for the cups but just acknowledging it's a huge challenge to even get into the finals for any non top 6 team.

8 out of 40 times is the number of times a non top 6 team has made the final of either cup in the last 10 years. That's 20% of the time that one of the finalists is from any team other than the top 6.



For the FA Cup there are 726 teams that aren't Top 6 teams. If you were to assume everything was equal they would split that 20% chance of being in the final amongst them and each non top 6 team would have a 0.027% chance at being a finalist. This is just for argument's sake, obviously the percentage and likelihood of a premier league team being in the final is far more likely than a lower pyramid team and so they would have a far better likelihood percentage in reality.



The top 6 teams are a finalist 80% of time. If everything was equal between them they would have a 13.33% likelihood of being in the final which is magnitudes more likely than a non top 6 team.

 

[JobForTheMoyes]

So that’s 8 times in the last 20 years over the 2 competitions, a 40% chance. Worth a go I would think.

No, that’s a 20 percent chance of a non top team winning, but the chance is much smaller for any particular side as you also have to factor in all the teams in the contest as a whole being a potential winner.

 

[Zatara]

Out of interest, is this based on your opinion of who the manager should be selecting, rather than the manager who sees them every day in training and whose ass is on the line if the team lose?

That sort of meritocracy?

I just don’t think you or any fan knows what goes on behind the scenes, one either trusts the manager or not. That is about it. It’s abundantly clear where people sit on the matter.

Firstly what a bizarre post.

I'm going to assume you do know what a meritocracy is and that you're just being a bit of a whopper.

Perhaps you can explain why Moyes has seen players perform well in games and then either dropped them or moved them into an unsuited position to get one of the older players into the position he seemed to have picked for them at the beginning of the season?

Alcaraz
Armstrong
Aznou
Iroegbunam
KDH
Patterson
Rohl

If you genuinely cant think back to a game since Moyes returned that any of these players were superior to the player in Moyes' typical 11 or at the very least in your (and the general) opinion were good enough to earn more minutes...

...then I wonder if you're more than a whopper.

Im not a fan of Rohl but he was good against Villa and dropped.

I'm not a huge fan of Iroegbunam but as soon as Gana came back, he was dropped.

Alcaraz was motm or scoring/assisting last season and moved out of position or dropped.

Etc etc.

This season it's like he chose his 11 and does anything to keep it no matter what unless he's forced into changes.

That should be obvious.

 

[Blue peter]

The past few hours have been nice, cordial, respectful debate in this thread.

I've got my suspicions why.

More of this please guys.

Get over to the Ndiaye thread….its been kicking off all over the shop there

 

[matty1878]

moyes out!!! effin dinosaur he’s a traitor!

i want bobby i want bobby

 

[Exeter_Gently]

View attachment 347967

moyes out!!! effin dinosaur he’s a traitor!

i want bobby i want bobby

Seamless crop work there Matt.

 

[Bluepablo]

That's not how the maths work at all.

I hope you don't gamble.

I know nobody wants to read it but the point I am getting at is that it is simply far more likely that the cup finalists are top 6 teams. I'm not saying we shouldn't try for the cups but just acknowledging it's a huge challenge to even get into the finals for any non top 6 team.

I do appreciate your point and the chances of getting to a final feel remote but I think you will find that a 20% chance of winning the FA cup & a 20% chance of winning the ‘League’ cup does give you a 40% chance of winning the FA. Cup OR the League cup or getting to the final anyway.

 

[JobForTheMoyes]

Im not a fan of Rohl but he was good against Villa and dropped.

I'm not a huge fan of Iroegbunam but as soon as Gana came back, he was dropped.

Alcaraz was motm or scoring/assisting last season and moved out of position or dropped.

One swallow does not a summer make. Rohl has not been good enough to force his way into the team based on the sum of his appearances.

Tim isn’t anywhere near as good as Gana. Alcaraz is also not good enough to be starting. The people who claimed he should start at 10 ahead of KDH have been proven wrong.

 

[Bluepablo]

No, that’s a 20 percent chance of a non top team winning, but the chance is much smaller for any particular side as you also have to factor in all the teams in the contest as a whole being a potential winner.

Yes, understood that it’s a 20% of a non top team winning not of Everton winning, unfortunately, but we are now one of the best non top teams.

 

[Efcjake]

I do appreciate your point and the chances of getting to a final feel remote but I think you will find that a 20% chance of winning the FA cup & a 20% chance of winning the ‘League’ cup does give you a 40% chance of winning the FA. Cup OR the League cup or getting to the final anyway.

It doesn't mate

 

[Swartzy]

Think we need a "Cup Run" Thread. Seems to be some split opinions in here..

I want a Cup run, I need a good cup run.

But someone else can take the reigns and create the thread..

 

[JobForTheMoyes]

Yes, understood that it’s a 20% of a non top team winning not of Everton winning, unfortunately, but we are now one of the best non top teams.

Here are the odds:

FA Cup

A club like Everton in a typical year:

Rough odds: ~2% to 6% (≈ 1 in 50 to 1 in 15)

League Cup (which is dominated more by top teams)

Rough odds: ~1% to 3% (≈ 1 in 100 to 1 in 30)

Why that “range” exists:

Stronger non-big-six teams (Villa, Newcastle, etc.) → closer to ~5–6%

Mid-table / weaker sides → closer to ~1–3%

Lower-league teams → <1%

 

[Exeter_Gently]

Think we need a "Cup Run" Thread. Seems to be some split opinions in here..

I want a Cup run, I need a good cup run.

But someone else can take the reigns and create the thread..

A lovely little cup run for all the lads.

We don't even have to win it.

Just a little run to keep everyone happy,should do the trick.

 

[COYBL25]

Think we need a "Cup Run" Thread. Seems to be some split opinions in here..

I want a Cup run, I need a good cup run.

But someone else can take the reigns and create the thread..

No matter what cup it was, it would still be the wrong cup to have a run in