Catfish Blues
Player Valuation: £15m
Yeah, much lower population infected than previous ranges although that initial reproduction number of around 3.87 [3.01-4.66] is going to be a concern on how we manage opening up going forward.
Edit this is the table for those who don't want to trawl through the whole report
You couldn't do the following, because you'd be adding a massively unmanageable burden to the NHS, but, starting from a baseline of 1.5 million infections, if you pulled the reproduction number down to 1, and each of those 1.5 million infected someone else one person in ( say ) 10 days, then in three months you'd have something like 16 million people infected.
That'd be something like 25% of the adult population.
Plainly those numbers have got massive error margins on them, but if we're locked down to a similar extent that we currently are, then it'd make a lot of sense to do mass sampling of the population using antibody tests starting ( say ) in four to six weeks. I don't know what % of the population you'd need to test to get something statistically significant, but I can't imagine you'd need much more than 100k to get a decent handle on it.

