Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[peteblue]

Oh God the ‘just having a laugh’ and the ‘just starting a debate’ are combining

I always appreciate effort that is put into a debate, whether I feel the conclusions are right or wrong. Seeing another persons view is never a bad thing…you should try it…….

 

[peteblue]

See this is where we differ. You can’t say vaccinated people shouldn’t be bothered by unvaccinated people because vaccinated people can still catch it, get seriously ill and die from it. And the greater number of unvaccinated there are, the quicker this can spread. The more it spreads the more people die.

We don’t differ at all. If everybody on the planet was vaccinated the virus would still exist, spread and people would still die from it, albeit at a lower rate. I have no problem nor sympathy with anti-vaxxers who die from the virus because they made their own decision. My beef with them is that they are being selfish and taking up hospital beds…..

 

[Piijt]

Friend of mine is an anti vaxxer, he convinced his wife everyone who got the jab will be dead in two years.
She’s been on a ventilator in ICU for the last four days. He’s a broken man. I so want to slap him.

 

[verreauxi]

Trump Supporters Are the Majority of Those Continuing to Defy Wearing Masks

Flattening the curve of COVID-19’s spread is a long, grueling process that we all have to endure in order to get through this pandemic. Unfortunately, some Americans are not contributing to the task at hand, causing cases to rise nationwide. The majority of those who do not wear masks are the...

thesciencesurvey.com

And yet...

 

[jinkyali]

Did an anti body test.
No antibodies detected in my blood.

Is it likely the vaccination will have stopped me getting any or am I a sitting duck?

 

[DuuuncanHadaPigeon]

See this is where we differ. You can’t say vaccinated people shouldn’t be bothered by unvaccinated people because vaccinated people can still catch it, get seriously ill and die from it. And the greater number of unvaccinated there are, the quicker this can spread. The more it spreads the more people die.

I have looked for data on this but can't find it. Is it all possible that vaccinated people have higher rates of asymptomatic transmission?

For example;

Person A is vaccinated, they catch covid but due to vaccine don't show obvious symptoms so they go about their daily routine (potentially increasing transmission)

Person B is unvaccinated, they catch covid but have notable symptoms and so isolate (potentially reducing transmission)

This could be bollocks but just a thought I had then

 

[RAFUH]

Given the huge cost of a Covid hospitalization I expect to see other companies do this

A move to a stick instead of a carrot

 

[mill]

I have looked for data on this but can't find it. Is it all possible that vaccinated people have higher rates of asymptomatic transmission?

For example;

Person A is vaccinated, they catch covid but due to vaccine don't show obvious symptoms so they go about their daily routine (potentially increasing transmission)

Person B is unvaccinated, they catch covid but have notable symptoms and so isolate (potentially reducing transmission)

This could be bollocks but just a thought I had then

I would have said that’s entirely possible, yeah.

Though I’d imagine the lag between catching the virus and displaying symptoms might blur that relationship a bit. So a symptomatic person could have passed it on before they even know.

 

[RAFUH]

We don’t differ at all. If everybody on the planet was vaccinated the virus would still exist, spread and people would still die from it, albeit at a lower rate. I have no problem nor sympathy with anti-vaxxers who die from the virus because they made their own decision. My beef with them is that they are being selfish and taking up hospital beds…..

They (unvaccinated) also raise the risk of breakthrough cases

 

[DuuuncanHadaPigeon]

I would have said that’s entirely possible, yeah.

Though I’d imagine the lag between catching the virus and displaying symptoms might blur that relationship a bit. So a symptomatic person could have passed it on before they even know.

True. If my 'theory' is correct it would be strange, completely counter intuitive.

 

[peteblue]

They (unvaccinated) also raise the risk of breakthrough cases

Indeed…

 

[mill]

True. If my 'theory' is correct it would be strange, completely counter intuitive.

It does seem counter intuitive. But it’s almost certainly a correct theory. It’s why things like track and trace are important.

Though overall it’s probably just noise. There will also be a fair share of unvaccinated that are asymptomatic and there are far fewer vaccinated people who actually contract it in the first place (symptomatic or not).

 

[DuuuncanHadaPigeon]

It does seem counter intuitive. But it’s almost certainly a correct theory. It’s why things like track and trace are important.

Though overall it’s probably just noise. There will also be a fair share of unvaccinated that are asymptomatic and there are far fewer vaccinated people who actually contract it in the first place (symptomatic or not).

In this scenario, track and trace wouldn't make a difference as it can't track asymptomatic cases (unless they get regular tests)

True, i'm just interested in what these numbers are, it may be the case that they in effect, cancel each other out. Without any data just speculation though

 

[JimmyJeffers]

I’ve promised myself I wouldn’t engage with this but your only real point is doing my head in as it’s blinkered and ignores a really important component of the drivers of the recent rise in cases.

The study you are talking about said that vaccinated people *can* have similar viral loads as unvaccinated people. So it is possible that vaccinated people can be as infectious as vaccinated people. But that ignores one important point. That unvaccinated people are more likely to get this and therefore increase the number of infected people and so increase the likelihood of further infections.

View attachment 136967
Using the chart you posted.

The vaccinated cohort represents 32% of infections overall. That means that for the vaccinated cohort to be as responsible for further spread of the virus as the unvaccinated cohort (ie for the vaccinated cohort to be responsible for 50% of subsequent cases overall), vaccinated people would need to be at least 1.5 times more infectious than unvaccinated people.

Unvaccinated people are overwhelmingly responsible for the continued spread of this. That’s what the numbers you shared say.

You can hide behind viral loads all you like but it’s one factor. Ultimately, the more people have it, the more easily this can be spread. And vaccinated people are much less likely to get it as the numbers in the chart show.

You’re wasting your time. He’s thick as mince. You’d get more sense having an argument with a piece of Lego.

 

[LinekersLegs]

In this scenario, track and trace wouldn't make a difference as it can't track asymptomatic cases (unless they get regular tests)

True, i'm just interested in what these numbers are, it may be the case that they in effect, cancel each other out. Without any data just speculation though

It is a small sample size and not yet peer reviewed but found this an interesting study

Delta’s rise is fuelled by rampant spread from people who feel fine

People infected with the Delta variant generally do not have COVID-19 symptoms until two days after they start shedding the coronavirus.

www.nature.com

People infected with the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 are more likely to spread the virus before developing symptoms than are people infected with earlier versions, suggests a detailed analysis of an outbreak in Guangdong, China1.
“It is just tougher to stop,” says Benjamin Cowling, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong and a co-author of the study, which was posted on a preprint server on 13 August.

Cowling and his colleagues analysed exhaustive test data from 101 people in Guangdong who were infected with Delta between May and June this year, and data from those individuals’ close contacts. They found that, on average, people began having symptoms 5.8 days after infection with Delta — 1.8 days after they first tested positive for viral RNA. That left almost two days for individuals to shed viral RNA before they showed any sign of COVID-19.
….
As a result, 74% of infections with Delta took place during the presymptomatic phase — a higher proportion than for previous variants. This high rate “helps explain how this variant has been able to outpace both the wild-type virus and other variants to become the dominant strain worldwide”, says Barnaby Young, an infectious-disease clinician at the National Centre for Infectious Diseases in Singapore.

..
A small number of study participants experienced ‘breakthrough infections’ with Delta after receiving two doses of an inactivated-virus COVID-19 vaccine. But the vaccine reduced participants’ viral loads at the peak of infection.
Vaccinated individuals were also 65% less likely than unvaccinated individuals to infect someone else, although the estimate was based on a very small sample size. This reduction “is significant and reassuring that COVID-19 vaccines remain effective and a vital part of our response to the pandemic”, says Young.