Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[tsubaki]

@tsubaki, to address Track & Trace - that can be done but it can't be done in an authoritarian way. You can't mass test without good reason, you can't force people to isolate and lose their income - not in the long term. What you can do is test people who arrive at GPs/hospitals with symptoms, genome sequence the variants that present and produce vaccines to meet those variants.

In short, it's what we do already with the flu. The exact same. It'll be better funded, more aware, but generally that's the behind the scenes approach that's needed. A constant, multi-billion pound, decades long program for something that will ultimately be "flu mk2" in 12-18 months is unnecessary.

What is necessary is a global effort to learn how we were poor with the response to this pandemic and put things in place to deal with the next one. Track & Trace systems ready to ramp up in reserve, like an army required for a war, would be a very good idea.

"In short, we need to learn why we were poor with the response to this pandemic and then put things in place to do largely the same thing next time"

Tubey what was being proposed for track and trace was not authoritarian, nor did it involve mass testing without good reason, nor did it force people to isolate and lose their income (in the short or the long term).

A working system would need - rely, really on - the public reporting that they had relevant symptoms as soon as possible. Once a report had been made, tracers would find out where the person had been whilst testing staff went round to where they were and did the test. They'd explain that whilst they were waiting to do the test, the person would need to isolate until the result comes back and until that happened they'd be supported (mostly this would be for a day or two so its unlikely any financial support would be needed, but with self-employed people some probably would).

The test result would then come back in a day or two and they'd either tell them it was something benign or that it wasn't, and in the latter case appropriate action would then follow (so medical help for the person if it was needed, speaking to the already identified contacts and getting them to isolate/get a test, getting their contacts, arranging financial support if needed).

 

[BlueToff]

@tsubaki, to address Track & Trace - that can be done but it can't be done in an authoritarian way. You can't mass test without good reason, you can't force people to isolate and lose their income - not in the long term. What you can do is test people who arrive at GPs/hospitals with symptoms, genome sequence the variants that present and produce vaccines to meet those variants.

In short, it's what we do already with the flu. The exact same. It'll be better funded, more aware, but generally that's the behind the scenes approach that's needed. A constant, multi-billion pound, decades long program for something that will ultimately be "flu mk2" in 12-18 months is unnecessary.

What is necessary is a global effort to learn how we were poor with the response to this pandemic and put things in place to deal with the next one. Track & Trace systems ready to ramp up in reserve, like an army required for a war, would be a very good idea.

tbf, I don't think @tsubaki wants that. They want a system that is government-funded and run so that people can get immediate diagnosis.

It's a good idea in theory, but I just can't see how, in reality it will work.

You would have to ingrain it into people that if they get up in the morning and feel unwell, they can't do anything until somebody has come to their home and tested them. In their plan, they say that could, with the right set up, be achieved in an hour.

However, what parent is going to wake up at 7am, feel a bit crap, but not still take their kids to school? Or what person is really going to arse if they have a tickly cough (which could well be more serious) not going to make that PT slot, or doctor's appointment, or that meeting.

It's a good plan, on paper. In practice, I don't think it works.

 

[peteblue]

...and the slide toward a winter of mass death will begin.

At least they will have a smile on their face.....

 

[marnie]

...and the slide toward a winter of mass death will begin.

FFS David pop a happy pill or something for once in yer life xx

 

[The Penalty Box Dancer]

Just for clarity on step 4, is that when all social distancing ends? Full stadium capacity for the new season?

 

[BlueToff]

I just know I'd test positive that day before the first gig...

 

[BlueToff]

Just for clarity on step 4, is that when all social distancing ends? Full stadium capacity for the new season?

Yes, potentially, though it is going to be under close review.

It will depend how the tester events go.

 

[BlueStevie35]

...and the slide toward a winter of mass death will begin.

You don't know that for sure, none of us do. By winter the whole country (bar the vax deniers) will have had both shots and the vunerable will be offered boosters most likely

 

[cahill007]

New Zealand begins Covid vaccine rollout, starting with border workers

Twelve thousand staff from border and managed isolation quarantine facilities to get first Pfizer jabs

www.theguardian.com

They've started their vaccination programme.

New Zealand expects its nationwide rollout covering the country’s population of 5 million will take a full year.

Also although the NZ government has not released what its border policy is going to be, it highly likely NZ and Australia will be using some kind of Health passport system.

Air NZ (50% government owned) are trialing such a system:

Air NZ to trial digital health passport app

Air New Zealand will trial a new digital health passport that will store health information, including Covid-19 test results and vaccinations, once international travel picks up again.

www.rnz.co.nz

Jacinda Ardern (NZ Prime minster) is also going to be getting her shot of the Pfizer jab on live tv to help with vaccine hesitancy. She has stated that the border restrictions will be reviewed, once more data is available on how the vaccine effects transmissibility of the virus.

They will look at opening to countries with similar approach to Covid first such as Australia and Taiwan.

it sucks for me personally as my first born is due next month, and my mum( who lives in the uk but holds NZ perm residency) is desperate to come over and meet her granddaughter.

 

[Tubey]

tbf, I don't think @tsubaki wants that. They want a system that is government-funded and run so that people can get immediate diagnosis.

It's a good idea in theory, but I just can't see how, in reality it will work.

You would have to ingrain it into people that if they get up in the morning and feel unwell, they can't do anything until somebody has come to their home and tested them. In their plan, they say that could, with the right set up, be achieved in an hour.

However, what parent is going to wake up at 7am, feel a bit crap, but not still take their kids to school? Or what person is really going to arse if they have a tickly cough (which could well be more serious) not going to make that PT slot, or doctor's appointment, or that meeting.

It's a good plan, on paper. In practice, I don't think it works.

Correct. It's what I'm trying to explain. The utopian Track & Trace he's describing would only work in a dictatorship. We've barely accepted it during an emergency; it's just not plausible.

And, if the thing isn't killing or even making people seriously ill, it'll be outright unnecessary too. See how much the thing costs???

We have the right system now with the flu every year.

 

[Tubey]

We need a system that can detect and contain outbreaks. We don't have one. Whitty appears to think that we can let this spread because it is less likely to hospitalize or kill people. That is what I was opposing.

We do. Particularly in regards to testing. In the future we'll have GP's taking samples and every single symptomatic, respiratory condition will be tested for coronavirus in hospitals as a routine in the future. It'll be as common as testing for MRSA.

If a variant is picked up in the future that evades immunity - and it remains a big if - then it'll be caught early on through labwork doing the above, and it's at that point a more rigid trace system needs to be ready to go IMO.

It's the 'trace' part that you have an issue with. For me, your description of what tracing needs to do be is overkill and doesn't suit our society. It's over-idealistic. Here's what you've just said.

To be an effective system, it would have to pick up illnesses quickly, confirm what they are and what the risk posed is, and have people wait until that can be done (which would be a day or two, unless something bad was detected).

You can't do that. You just can't when there's no clear and present danger to people. It's an erosion of liberty. People accept it during an emergency situation with a rampant pandemic killing millions around the world - they aren't going to when it's a couple of thousand.

You can't imprison people in their own homes for a couple of days every time they get a runny nose.

 

[JLW]

...and the slide toward a winter of mass death will begin.

Dave people are suffering massively and you could say that the ones screaming LOCKDOWN or branding people breaking the rules Murderers are actually killing people themselves.
How many people are having health issues right now but have no option to get it treated, il bet over the next 12-18 months you will see more people than the average dying from Cancer, Alzheimer, Dementia etc.. due to being left with no treatment/missed appointments during this lockdowns.

Its inhumane with the way we have been living for the past 12 months, Life has to go on or you might as well drop a bomb on us all because what's the point in merely existing! You maybe happy with that but I'm not.

I've said before i would rather die in 5 years from now living a normal life than die in 10 years from now living this one.

Just to add, you keep banging the hospitality drum, most people i know work all week so they can go and have some fun in the hospitality sector
Cinema with ye bird, Nice restaurant, few beers in the pub with lads watching the match, going the match, a weekend away with ye missus in a hotel, concerts etc....

Maybe you don't do any of the above and that's fine but for many that's their pleasure in life.

 

[Deleted member 48881]

Dave people are suffering massively and you could say that the ones screaming LOCKDOWN or branding people breaking the rules Murderers are actually killing people themselves.
How many people are having health issues right now but have no option to get it treated, il bet over the next 12-18 months you will see more people than the average dying from Cancer, Alzheimer, Dementia etc.. due to being left with no treatment/missed appointments during this lockdowns.

Its inhumane with the way we have been living for the past 12 months, Life has to go on or you might as well drop a bomb on us all because what's the point in merely existing! You maybe happy with that but I'm not.

I've said before i would rather die in 5 years from now living a normal life than die in 10 years from now living this one.

Just to add, you keep banging the hospitality drum, most people i know work all week so they can go and have some fun in the hospitality sector
Cinema with ye bird, Nice restaurant, few beers in the pub with lads watching the match, going the match, a weekend away with ye missus in a hotel, concerts etc....

Maybe you don't do any of the above and that's fine but for many that's their pleasure in life.

Yes...

 

[Deleted member 48881]

 

[Moomin]

Dave people are suffering massively and you could say that the ones screaming LOCKDOWN or branding people breaking the rules Murderers are actually killing people themselves.
How many people are having health issues right now but have no option to get it treated, il bet over the next 12-18 months you will see more people than the average dying from Cancer, Alzheimer, Dementia etc.. due to being left with no treatment/missed appointments during this lockdowns.

Its inhumane with the way we have been living for the past 12 months, Life has to go on or you might as well drop a bomb on us all because what's the point in merely existing! You maybe happy with that but I'm not.

I've said before i would rather die in 5 years from now living a normal life than die in 10 years from now living this one.

Just to add, you keep banging the hospitality drum, most people i know work all week so they can go and have some fun in the hospitality sector
Cinema with ye bird, Nice restaurant, few beers in the pub with lads watching the match, going the match, a weekend away with ye missus in a hotel, concerts etc....

Maybe you don't do any of the above and that's fine but for many that's their pleasure in life.

Yes...

I would suggest you both speak to people in the NHS and ask them how the services would have coped without a lockdown.

Ask them, don't listen to the likes of James Melville who wanted to open everything back up at Xmas.