Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!
- Thread starter bullybeef
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@davek sets out for his daily bike ride without a face covering and full Sherpa gear for the first time since restrictions were lifted.
BlueStevie35
Player Valuation: £70m
Hospital figures - 25 is the announced total, up 9 on yesterday and up 12 on last Saturday. All 25 were in English hospitals, up the same amounts as yesterday and last week with 19 occurring in the past 10 days
roydo
in memoriam - 1965-2024
Weekly figures, from
% calculations, and therefore mistakes, are my own
All figures are UK Wide. The dates are different for different measures because of the way the data is collected and/or calculated. The finer grained data is on the website if anyone's interested in their own geographic area.
New Cases 7 day daily average :-
21st July : 667.9
14th July : 609.3
Up 9.6%
Number of Tests 7 day daily average
21st July : 141,013
14th July : 134,176
Up 5.1%
Hospital admissions
22nd July : 112
15th July : 163
Down 31.3%
Patients in hospital
22nd July : 1634
15th July : 1835
Down 11.0%
Ventilated patients
23rd July : 111
16th July : 142
Down 21.8%
Deaths : 7 day daily average
21st July : 63.4
14th July : 83.3
7th July : 74.1
Down 23.9% after a rise last week.
Over two weeks, it's down 14.4%
Overall, things are moving in the right direction.
Cases were up this week, as they were the previous week, but, unless hospital admissions start to tick up next week, the case increases will probably be localised. So if local restrictions nip those rises in the bud, then they shouldn't spread outside their local areas.
Pubs and restaurants have been open for three weeks now, and there doesn't seem to be any measurable effect from that relaxation. So, at least while the weather's half decent, that decision looks to have been vindicated, and shouts of murderers, plus my own personal view that it was too early to open them, seem wide of the mark.
So, do these two measurements say the same thing, in essence?
Catfish Blues
Player Valuation: £15m
Only partly mate.
Hospital deaths are generally caused by infections contracted weeks ago, so tell us very little about the here and now, they just tell us how rife the virus was about four to six weeks ago.
Admissions, generally, tell us about infections contracted about two weeks ago.
Cases tell us about infections contracted from roughly a week ago.
Of the three, barring a sudden rise in cases, admissions are probably the most useful indicator of how we're doing. If cases continue to rise, but admissions continue to fall, that probably tells us something about the demographics of the people getting infected, in that they're likely generally at a lower risk than was true at the peak.
That's an oversimplification mind, because one of the things that triggered the current lockdown in Leicester was a rise in COVID hospital admissions, so the national figure could fall while local figures rise.
roydo
in memoriam - 1965-2024
Makes sense. I always forget about the time lag.
Barnfred 55
Player Valuation: £80m
Hope you enjoyed your week in Cornwall mate and that the locals were welcoming and grateful for your custom.
Hope the short trip up the Atlantic Highway was not too onerous and you receive a good welcome from our neighbours in Devon, and you weren't greeted with placards saying "Southerners stay home", "Cornish scum" and "FFS it's jam first" lol
Barnfred 55
Player Valuation: £80m
Couple of questions that you may be able to clarify mate.Weekly figures, from
% calculations, and therefore mistakes, are my own
All figures are UK Wide. The dates are different for different measures because of the way the data is collected and/or calculated. The finer grained data is on the website if anyone's interested in their own geographic area.
New Cases 7 day daily average :-
21st July : 667.9
14th July : 609.3
Up 9.6%
Number of Tests 7 day daily average
21st July : 141,013
14th July : 134,176
Up 5.1%
Hospital admissions
22nd July : 112
15th July : 163
Down 31.3%
Patients in hospital
22nd July : 1634
15th July : 1835
Down 11.0%
Ventilated patients
23rd July : 111
16th July : 142
Down 21.8%
Deaths : 7 day daily average
21st July : 63.4
14th July : 83.3
7th July : 74.1
Down 23.9% after a rise last week.
Over two weeks, it's down 14.4%
Overall, things are moving in the right direction.
Cases were up this week, as they were the previous week, but, unless hospital admissions start to tick up next week, the case increases will probably be localised. So if local restrictions nip those rises in the bud, then they shouldn't spread outside their local areas.
Pubs and restaurants have been open for three weeks now, and there doesn't seem to be any measurable effect from that relaxation. So, at least while the weather's half decent, that decision looks to have been vindicated, and shouts of murderers, plus my own personal view that it was too early to open them, seem wide of the mark.
Of late the amount of deaths in the community seem to outnumber the hospital deaths by around 3/4 to 1. Do you think we're still having a problem, albeit a much smaller one, with Nursing Homes?, The other possibility is a rise in deaths at home. These mini outbreaks do appear to be occurring in areas where there is a culture of multi generational occupancy of properties. Do you have access to data that may answer this?
Also, whilst we've been seeing small weekly increases in numbers testing positive, we're actually seeing big reductions in hospital admissions. Do you think this is because there's a much higher percentage of younger people testing positive as a result of out test and trace initiative? If not, how would you explain this apparent anomaly?
BlueStevie35
Player Valuation: £70m
All settings - 61 is the announced figure, down 62 on yesterday but up 21 on last Saturday, this sees the 7 day rolling average rise to 66.43. The earlier hospital figure sees that 7 day rolling average rise also to 14.43
Westwood Ho ! is a bit of a dump, like New Brighton with a lovely beach and surfing
Catfish Blues
Player Valuation: £15m
If the split of deaths is 3 or 4 to 1 then I'd say that's most likely down to a statistical anomaly caused by how deaths are getting reported.
Admittedly the ONS data is lagging by a couple of weeks, but, from
Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics
Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, including deaths involving the coronavirus pandemic, by age, sex and region.
www.ons.gov.uk
for the w/e 10th July ...
... so twice as many COVID deaths were occuring in hospitals compared to Care Homes. Maybe that'll change to reflect what you're seeing, but, barring big outbreaks in two or three care homes, I'd trust the ONS data over what might be a flawed interpretation of the daily figures ?
A bit of that, so a demographic thing, coupled with mass testing in places like Leicester, which are picking up asymptomatic cases which wouldn't normally be seen. Add to that an expected delay between case onset and hospitalisation and that'll pretty much cover it.
Data in the public domain ( from the site I originally linked ) pretty much shows that, against a national backdrop of falling admissions, admissions in the Midlands, the North-West over the last couple of weeks are fairly static, so, given that the Midlands and the North-West cover Leicester, Blackburn and Pendle, there's probably an indication there that the higher rate of infections in those areas is feeding through into admissions
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