BrendanGOT
Player Valuation: £30m
Im not sure for the US but for the UK there was the initial Oxford model, here:
And here:
Oxford Model: Coronavirus May Have Already Infected Half of U.K. Population
If the hypothetical model is proven by antibody testing, it would mean minuscule hospitalization rates for coronavirus cases in the country.
nymag.com
Which suggests it was circulating in the UK community undected/ mistook for other respitory illness since Jan at the latest.
Professor Carl Heneghan suggests the peak of hospitalisations was early or mid March:
UK's coronavirus crisis peaked BEFORE lockdown, says top experts
Oxford University professor Carl Heneghan claims data shows infections halved after March 16. He hailed Sweden for 'holding its nerve' and not giving in to hasty scientific advice.
Incase you can't be bothered scrolling through the Mail article:
“The peak of deaths occurred on April 8, and if you understand that then you work backwards to find the peak of infections. That would be 21 days before then, right before the point of lockdown.”
Data shows the rate of Britons with upper respiratory tract infections dropped from 20 per 100,000 people on March 15 to around 12 per 100,000 just six days later.
The figures do not relate solely to coronavirus but may be a good indicator because so few people were being tested for the deadly infection.
Add the above to research suggesting that anywhere from 50-80% of cases are asymptomatic. Here:
Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate
New evidence has emerged from China indicating that the large majority of coronavirus infections do not result in symptoms. Chinese authorities began publishing daily figures on 1 April on the number of new coronavirus cases that are asymptomatic, with the first day’s figures suggesting that...
www.bmj.com
And research from the Diamond Princess Ship suggested that even up to 60% of 70-79 year olds remain symtom free also. Here:
Field Briefing: Diamond Princess COVID-19 Cases
A cruise ship, named the Diamond Princess, had travel that originated in Yokohama on 20 January and included stops in Japan (Kagoshima), Hong Kong, Vietnam, Taiwan and Japan(Okinawa), before arriving back in Yokohama on 3 February. During this time, a passenger who disembarked on 25 January in...
www.niid.go.jp
Looking at Sweden without a lockdown also suggests a higher level of immunity and of infected with mild/ asymptomatic cases imo. That could change of course. Here:
Stockholm will reach 'herd immunity' within weeks
Claim comes amid bitter debate over success of Sweden's relaxed approach
www.telegraph.co.uk
Imo, looking at the numbers/ trend and looking at the research and articles I've read so far this virus has been circulating for a while.
