Current Affairs Afghanistan

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Partition was an idea from a section of Indian Muslims, but the British were very engaged with it. They even met their leader in secret talks and offered tacit support for the creation of that state.

Gandhi, though a bit if a Hindu chauvinist position was not to create a "Hindustan" but a multi-faith India.
But if he could do it without a couple of 100M Muslims he wouldn't worry too much...allegedly - even Ghandi was subject to human nature.

The British were happy with the least worst deal all the locals could live with - anything to get out.

Just as in the Mutiny 90yrs previously where bothsides egged each other on with tales of...depending which side you were on...you know the British put pig / cow grease on all the cartridges...and what they would do to the british in reprisal.
In 1857 and 1947 they promised dire consequences to the British but in the end did all that and more to each other.

Not anybody's finest hour Partition.
 
The number of USA troops was somewhat irrelevant. The Afghan‘s had a supposed 300,000 strong fully equipped army, the USA provided backbone and deterrence by its presence and air power. The USA being there also ensured other nations would continue to contribute. Once the USA stated a date and then started drawdown, morale in the ANA dissolved, sneaking out of Bagram at the dead of night pretty well finished it off. Biden could and should have changed Trumps decision and it would not have required a mass influx of American troops…but it’s done now and Afghanistan and it’s people will have to pick up the pieces…….

It looks like the Afghan army had been doing a fair old bit of the heavy dirty work if these numbers are correct…

American service members killed in Afghanistan through April: 2,448.

U.S. contractors: 3,846.

Afghan national military and police: 66,000.

Other allied service members, including from other NATO member states: 1,144.

Afghan civilians: 47,245.

Taliban and other opposition fighters: 51,191.

Aid workers: 444.

Journalists: 72.

Just been listening to an ex CIA analyst who also served in Afghanistan. He was saying that it was more like 50,000 Afghan troops, he was saying because of the corruption in the Afghan military where they have what you would call 'ghost soldiers' where they would have people reported to be on the roll but in reality the commanders were just collecting all of their pay to line their own pockets.

Im not sure where this "300,000 Afgan troops" line comes from aside from Biden.

There was a piece in the mail today dismissing Biden's comments:


Biden said Afghan army is 300,000 strong, when the real number is 178,800.

Biden, as noted above, said: 'When you saw the significant collapse of the Afghan troops we had trained, up to 300,000 of them...' He has used this number repeatedly.

But there are only 178,800 active duty forces - 171,500 in the army and 7,300 in the air force, according to an annual report viewed by the Washington Post. No reserve forces are listed for Afghanistan.

If Afghanistan actually had over 300,000 troops, its force would be bigger than every NATO ally except Turkey.

The nation does have 99,000 members of the Afghan National Police, though police have separate duties from the military and do not fight insurgents.



As @LouReedwalkonthewildside mentions, the "Ghost Soldiers" seems believable. Thats simply due to the 'tribal' nature and 'corruptness' which is bizarre to us but is simply Afgan culture. The army and taliban have been reported to often be from the same tribe and military officers would have frequent calls with their opposition before attacking one another.

Why not 'double dip' into wages when the culture is to obtain money and power through 'any' means? Now weve heard theyve not been paid for months anyway...

What i dont understand, is why didnt Biden leave 2500 troops there as 'advisors/support' if the US has 900 troops in Syria...from that article linked above it seems that he isnt even aware of that :o

If im not wrong, its been reported that there were zero American casualties in the last 18months -- with the 2500 troops advising/supporting the front line ocal soldiers.

Why be in such a rush to flee in the dead of night when really there was no imminent threat?

My view was that the 'allies' should have remained a presence there in the 'support/advisory' capacity for at least another 40+ years. The time it would take for the Taliban soldiers who had been in active combat directly with 'allied' forces to die off.

Its seems to be a fantastic strategic base and also would show the world that the 'allies' had finally managed to develop a country together...

Instead its another disaster...all on Biden's head.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the Panjshir Valley.
 
If the 'allies' had continued with the 2500 'advisory/support' troops then it doesnt seem like there would be this mess...

Instead of leaving 2500 there, after spending multiple billions of dollars of investment -- they instead pull those troops out and invite tens of thousands of Afgans to relocate?

Its madness...and then abandoning people like this:


Even the Philippines will allow Afgan refugees into the country to apply for asylum:


There are active terror groups in Southern Philippines so it opens up all sorts of security issues not only in US, UK but globally.

Total disaster...
 
Why be in such a rush to flee in the dead of night when really there was no imminent threat?

My view was that the 'allies' should have remained a presence there in the 'support/advisory' capacity for at least another 40+ years. The time it would take for the Taliban soldiers who had been in active combat directly with 'allied' forces to die off.

Its seems to be a fantastic strategic base and also would show the world that the 'allies' had finally managed to develop a country together...

Instead its another disaster...all on Biden's head.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the Panjshir Valley.
To ignore or overturn the agreement made by the previous administration would invite a potential "imminent threat" possibly requiring either additional US or Allied troops or an even more hasty, ugly retreat.

Placing blame squarely on one man when there has been 20 years of miscalculation and arrogance (such as believing the allied West can impose its cultural will upon Afghanistan) over 4 US Administrations is folly.
 
To ignore or overturn the agreement made by the previous administration would invite a potential "imminent threat" possibly requiring either additional US or Allied troops or an even more hasty, ugly retreat.

Placing blame squarely on one man when there has been 20 years of miscalculation and arrogance (such as believing the allied West can impose its cultural will upon Afghanistan) over 4 US Administrations is folly.

Thats a really strange take on things.
 
Thats a really strange take on things.

you literally just posted this:

“My view was that the 'allies' should have remained a presence there in the 'support/advisory' capacity for at least another 40+ years. The time it would take for the Taliban soldiers who had been in active combat directly with 'allied' forces to die off.”

so please don’t accuse anyone else of having a “really strange take on things”
 
To ignore or overturn the agreement made by the previous administration would invite a potential "imminent threat" possibly requiring either additional US or Allied troops or an even more hasty, ugly retreat.

Placing blame squarely on one man when there has been 20 years of miscalculation and arrogance (such as believing the allied West can impose its cultural will upon Afghanistan) over 4 US Administrations is folly.
Only 4?

By my calculations you can go back as far as Jimmy Carter and Operation Cyclone.
 
you literally just posted this:

“My view was that the 'allies' should have remained a presence there in the 'support/advisory' capacity for at least another 40+ years. The time it would take for the Taliban soldiers who had been in active combat directly with 'allied' forces to die off.”

so please don’t accuse anyone else of having a “really strange take on things”

If you take a taliban soldier fighting directly against allied forces 18months ago and add 40 years....

Thats 41.5 years on top of their age when they were fighting against 'allied' forces.

Almost all of them would be old men or dead.

Im not sure whats "really strange" about simple arithmetic.
 
If you take a taliban soldier fighting directly against allied forces 18months ago and add 40 years....

Thats 41.5 years on top of their age when they were fighting against 'allied' forces.

Almost all of them would be old men or dead.

Im not sure whats "really strange" about simple arithmetic.

yes, providing they didn’t recruit younger people or keep on fighting they’d be screwed
 
But if he could do it without a couple of 100M Muslims he wouldn't worry too much...allegedly - even Ghandi was subject to human nature.

The British were happy with the least worst deal all the locals could live with - anything to get out.

Just as in the Mutiny 90yrs previously where bothsides egged each other on with tales of...depending which side you were on...you know the British put pig / cow grease on all the cartridges...and what they would do to the british in reprisal.
In 1857 and 1947 they promised dire consequences to the British but in the end did all that and more to each other.

Not anybody's finest hour Partition.

The british stoked most of those divisions though, as divide and conquer.

And Gandhi was very much opposed to the creation of Pakistan, unlike the British.
 
If you take a taliban soldier fighting directly against allied forces 18months ago and add 40 years....

Thats 41.5 years on top of their age when they were fighting against 'allied' forces.

Almost all of them would be old men or dead.

Im not sure whats "really strange" about simple arithmetic.

The problem is mate, they are recruiting more, younger people in their place, and by all accounts at a faster rate than previously. The occupation is just annoying people, the pupped government they put in place relies upon explicit corruption, and alliances with warlords who's brutally makes the Taliban look like a hippies. The Taliban already de factor control large swathes of the country, and this was accepted by the occupying forces as the standard arrangement.

So it is just a massive waste of money for the UK/US. What probably needed to happen, was to completely re-adjust how the money was being spent, but it would require a fundamental re-adjustment of what had happened previously and an acknowledgement that it had failed badly.

In honesty, they would not have been able to stay another 20 years. There is a reason Trump/Biden are racing to leave and it's because the Taliban were getting increasingly confident. There would have been a match in Kabul and a defeat for the remaining troops had they stayed at some point in the future (within 20 years).

We have to shift our view that the Taliban are an isolated force with no support. They have mass support in tbe countryside, and are known for not being corrupt, their court system being untarnished with bribery (which The UK/US system upheld by their pipped government isnt) and of having 40 years of fighting against 1st Soviet then American occupying forces.
 
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