Current Affairs 2024 POTUS race

[Blue 1]

All the polls have tightened up this week showing Harris' lead down by a couple of % points. Personally I think pollsters might be beginning to weight their polls now to avoid their failure in 2016 and 2020 to forecast the "late Trump surge" (as they spared their blushes with).

I've never believed in the '4%-5% Harris lead' headlines. They seemed like baloney to me.

This is down to thousands of votes in a single battleground state.

I think there might be one or two surprises. I think Michigan (Arab population), North Carolina (Mark Robinson) and Arizona (registration issues, Jeff Flake ensorsing Harris) may throw some interesting results. It might not just come down to Pennsylvania, but gonna be tough, nigh on impossible, for Harris without it.

 

[RAFUH]

Folks being shocked that sexism and misogyny are a major issue.

Me and @LinekersLegs (and some allies)

 

[Ruairi77]

I see Harris is going on Fox on the 16th.
With all the Liz Cheney stuff, she's really making a pitch for the moderate independent vote and there doesnt seem to be a lot of younger progressive momentum. Here's hoping that the crackdown on campus free speech doesnt come back to bite the Dems.
I think they have a good shot in Georgia now that the court there reinstated the six week abortion ban (a Handmaids Tale type sentence I've had to type way too much)

 

[Nightman]

It looks like the failure of black and Hispanic men to get behind Harris compared with their backing for previous Democratic candidates is going to make this an unnecessarily close race.

Harris could be denied the WH by sexism in these groups especially...not that white males will be less so, it's just that the Democrats rely on black and Hispanic voters to make them competitive.

Agree. But the flipside of this coin is that Trump is hemorrhaging both independent and traditional Republican voters - the older educated types who would have voted for Haley.

The forecast is that the number of registered Republican voters who vote Dem will be over double what it was in 2020. And that's not taking into account voters who stay at home.

 

[Paris]

For the past couple of weeks I haven't been able to shake this horrible feeling that Trump is going to win. He's going to win guys. He's going to win FFS.

 

[Blue 1]

For the past couple of weeks I haven't been able to shake this horrible feeling that Trump is going to win. He's going to win guys. He's going to win FFS.

Yep, feel the same.

 

[davek]

I think there might be one or two surprises. I think Michigan (Arab population), North Carolina (Mark Robinson) and Arizona (registration issues, Jeff Flake ensorsing Harris) may throw some interesting results. It might not just come down to Pennsylvania, but gonna be tough, nigh on impossible, for Harris without it.

Imagine it came down to that.

I've made my thoughts on the issue plain.

 

[davek]

Agree. But the flipside of this coin is that Trump is hemorrhaging both independent and traditional Republican voters - the older educated types who would have voted for Haley.

The forecast is that the number of registered Republican voters who vote Dem will be over double what it was in 2020. And that's not taking into account voters who stay at home.

Will they really be able to vote for Harris though? They, I can see Republicans turned off Trump in big numbers and not voting for him, but actually placing a vote for Harris...?

 

[MrPerfectNot]

Agree. But the flipside of this coin is that Trump is hemorrhaging both independent and traditional Republican voters - the older educated types who would have voted for Haley.

The forecast is that the number of registered Republican voters who vote Dem will be over double what it was in 2020. And that's not taking into account voters who stay at home.

3 weeks out, forecasting anything other than a(nother) season of struggle for Everton is useless.

This is now a sprint to the finish - you don't look at the other runners, you try not to listen to anyone else's footsteps or breathing - you just run flat out and give it everything you've got. My wife is spending the week knocking on doors in Arizona in the evenings, I'm phone banking to swing states and making sure all my neighbors are registered to vote and are either early voting or getting a ride to the polls on the day of days if needed.

 

[LinekersLegs]

It looks like the failure of black and Hispanic men to get behind Harris compared with their backing for previous Democratic candidates is going to make this an unnecessarily close race.

Harris could be denied the WH by sexism in these groups especially...not that white males will be less so, it's just that the Democrats rely on black and Hispanic voters to make them competitive.

The gender gap between men and women voters in 2020 was 12 points, I’m expecting it to be even larger this time.

 

[Blue 1]

The gender gap between men and women voters in 2020 was 12 points, I’m expecting it to be even larger this time.

It undoubtedly will be. I reckon 20 odd points.

 

[Paris]

Yep, feel the same.

was kind of hoping that you'd be the first in line to tell me to calm down....

 

[Nightman]

Will they really be able to vote for Harris though? They, I can see Republicans turned off Trump in big numbers and not voting for him, but actually placing a vote for Harris...?

The needle was somewhat moved in 2020 when the 'never Trumpers' helped push Biden over the line. As we know, it doesn't take many voters to change the result in swing states, and therefore the Republicans For Harris could prove to be a meaningful demographic.

I also think it helps that Biden is no longer running. More palatable to vote for a candidate who is not senile and incoherent. With Biden and Trump, it would have been a like-for-like for a GOP moderate so why bother changing.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

This election does feel like the world is at a precipice, and the outcome could see democracy stand its ground or a new authoritarian world order emerge. More so than at any time since Hitler, the world needs the USA to do the right thing.

 

[BlueTX]

WTF? Asian-Americans with a blue tint?