Current Affairs 2024 POTUS race
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Martin Alvito
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Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. spoil the election for Biden — or Trump?
538's analysis of whether Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could siphon off more votes from Biden or Trump, or whether his candidacy will affect the final results at all.
RFK Jr. is polling in double digits as a third-party candidate. How?
carolinablue232
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Feels like a 2016 situation again where Johnson got votes simply because he wasn’t Trump or Hilary. Now it’s RFK Jr. because he’s not Trump or Biden.Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. spoil the election for Biden — or Trump?
538's analysis of whether Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could siphon off more votes from Biden or Trump, or whether his candidacy will affect the final results at all.abcnews.go.com
RFK Jr. is polling in double digits as a third-party candidate. How?
TN Toffee
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No idea. Also no idea who his candidacy actually hurts more.Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. spoil the election for Biden — or Trump?
538's analysis of whether Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could siphon off more votes from Biden or Trump, or whether his candidacy will affect the final results at all.
RFK Jr. is polling in double digits as a third-party candidate. How?
Martin Alvito
Player Valuation: £50m
More or less the thesis of the 538 article. Their take is that he probably won't matter much, as with past third-party candidates, because he'll never win and third-party support tends to dry up as an election nears, due to the concern over wasting one's vote.
No telling what the political persuasion of those who will be faithful will be, at this stage of the game. It's likely to be a close enough election that he could tip it, if there's a significant skew one way or the other to the voters he retains, but there's no telling how or why.
It’s an interesting one. Honestly I have no clue on the profile of a RFK Jr voter. I assumed his polling would be closer to 1 or 2%. Given the Kennedy name, I wonder if he may influence the outcome in New Hampshire and/or the CDs in Maine
Another one with him in double digits, but this time hurting Trump moreWill Robert F. Kennedy Jr. spoil the election for Biden — or Trump?
538's analysis of whether Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could siphon off more votes from Biden or Trump, or whether his candidacy will affect the final results at all.
RFK Jr. is polling in double digits as a third-party candidate. How?
Covid vaccine fear mongering tapped in to a libertarian vein.Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. spoil the election for Biden — or Trump?
538's analysis of whether Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could siphon off more votes from Biden or Trump, or whether his candidacy will affect the final results at all.
RFK Jr. is polling in double digits as a third-party candidate. How?
1) I don't actually believe any of these RFK Jr. polls
2) If he steals votes from anyone, I'd have to imagine he'd steal more votes from the outer space GOP voting bloc.
2) If he steals votes from anyone, I'd have to imagine he'd steal more votes from the outer space GOP voting bloc.
Tbh I can believe that some people are stating that they will vote for him as a “stamp your foot” kind of expression of anger.
I find it very unlikely that the majority will actually follow through in a years time and not even sure how many are even regular voters.
I think this last 10 days has been damaging to Biden. He's on his way back from Tel Aviv with nothing to show for his trip. The rush to give unlimited support to Israel is necessary for the US Jewish vote its gotta have an effect on minorities, particularly muslims. Its been a big 2 fingers to them really.
A lot of the Jewish vote is Republican anyway but noboby can win the WH without it. A decent chunk of the Dems vote is minorities, I just wonder how his ratings will fair in the next few polls with that demographic.
If there isnt a ceasefire soon that he can claim some credit for I think this is an area of concern fir 2924.
A lot of the Jewish vote is Republican anyway but noboby can win the WH without it. A decent chunk of the Dems vote is minorities, I just wonder how his ratings will fair in the next few polls with that demographic.
If there isnt a ceasefire soon that he can claim some credit for I think this is an area of concern fir 2924.
I don't find that to be the case. At all
Martin Alvito
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It's about 2/3 Democratic to 1/3 Republican in recent years.
Do this. Look at the 2020 vote tallies, and the Jewish population by state. Take the Jewish population of each state, and reduce it by 2/3 to account for national turnout. Reduce it again by 2/3 to account for the number of Democratic votes Biden could have lost to Trump. Now double that number, since a vote lost by Biden is a vote for Trump, to account for the worst case scenario of Biden losing every single Jewish vote he received to Trump.
(You can also shortcut this process by simply multiplying the Jewish population of each state by 8/9.)
If you run through the vote tallies, you will find that the Jewish vote could have flipped four states: Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin. That does tip the election. If you repeat the exercise for Trump in 2016 (multiplying Jewish population by state by 2/5 to account for lower turnout and his lesser share of the Jewish vote), it flips Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida, again tipping the election.
Conclusion: no politician can win the White House without some Jewish votes. It is probable that no Democrat can win the White House without the preponderance of the Jewish vote. The issue represents a prospective vulnerability for both Biden and Trump, and they have staked out their respective camps.
No idea how it will all play out but speaking generally I have rarely seen Americans base their vote on a foreign policy issue rather than a domestic policy issue that affects them directly eg the economy, taxes or abortion.
Minorities, especially Muslims, didn't have the greatest of times under Trump who is likely to be the other nominee.
Also support for Israel, at least at the moment, is pretty even across party lines although it could well hurt with the younger voters Biden will need.
Voters (76 - 17 percent) think supporting Israel is in the national interest of the United States.
Republicans (84 - 12 percent), Democrats (76 - 17 percent), and independents (74 - 19 percent) think supporting Israel is in the national interest of the United States.
Voters (64 - 28 percent) approve of the United States sending weapons and military equipment to Israel in response to the Hamas terrorist attack.
Republicans (79 - 19 percent), Democrats (59 - 29 percent), and independents (61 - 32 percent) approve of the United States sending weapons and military equipment to Israel.
There are wide gaps when looking at age. Voters 18 - 34 years old disapprove (51 - 39 percent) of the United States sending weapons and military equipment to Israel in response to the Hamas terrorist attack, while voters 35 - 49 years old (59 - 35 percent), voters 50 - 64 years old (77 - 17 percent), and voters 65 years of age and over (78 - 15 percent) approve.
When it comes to the relationship between the United States and Israel, slightly more than half of voters (52 percent) think the U.S. support of Israel is about right, while 20 percent think the U.S. is not supportive enough of Israel, and 20 percent think the U.S. is too supportive of Israel. This compares to a Quinnipiac University poll in May 2021 when 35 percent thought the U.S. support of Israel was about right, 25 percent thought the U.S. was not supportive enough, and 29 percent thought the U.S. was too supportive of Israel.
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