Current Affairs 2020 Democratic Primary

[LinekersLegs]

Bennet will probably fold today too.

And if this is true I’m not sure how much further either Biden or Warren will go either...

 

[Ruairi77]

Yea. Poor from warren. Not really seeing a path for her now. Pity.

 

[Deleted member 48881]

Sanders wins it yet again receives same amount of delegates with the candidate who came second? Is this related to superdelegates like it was in 2016?

 

[LinekersLegs]

Sanders wins it yet again receives same amount of delegates with the candidate who came second? Is this related to superdelegates like it was in 2016?

Apparently not, it is related to the district % totals rather than the statewide total %

What Our Forecast Says About The New Hampshire Primary At The District Level

According to early estimates out of Iowa, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg won 14 pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention, Sen. …

fivethirtyeight.com

According to early estimates out of Iowa, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg won 14 pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention, Sen. Bernie Sanders won 12, Sen. Elizabeth Warren won eight, former Vice President Joe Biden won six and Sen. Amy Klobuchar won one. But how did Klobuchar snag a national delegate when her share of the statewide vote was 12 percent,1 below the delegate threshold of 15 percent? It’s because she got more than 15 percent in Iowa’s 4th Congressional District, and around two-thirds of Iowa’s delegates are awarded based on results at the district level, not the statewide level.

The same is true in New Hampshire. Of the Granite State’s 24 pledged delegates, eight are divvied up among candidates based on their statewide vote shares, eight are allotted based on their vote shares in the 1st Congressional District and eight are allocated based on their vote shares in the 2nd Congressional District. The FiveThirtyEight primary forecast modelthus estimates the number of pledged delegates each candidate will win at both the state and the district level.

 

[abelard]

lol

The Scottish Play wins again

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

Desperately disappointed in the lack of support for Warren.

Seeing people on here crying foul (again) but Bernie’s support underwhelming compared to expectations I’d say too? (He was alwaysgoing to win NH, but will definitely have been expecting more than that share)

 

[gonetomorrow]

Sanders is too old. Shame.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

Sanders wins it yet again receives same amount of delegates with the candidate who came second? Is this related to superdelegates like it was in 2016?

He seemingly won by < 1.5%

Given that there are only 24 delegates to be awarded, how many extras would you like him to get?

Given that 1.5% of 24 is significantly less than half a delegate

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

Sanders is too old. Shame.

And yet significantly less advanced into dementia than the incumbent

 

[abelard]

Desperately disappointed in the lack of support for Warren.

Seeing people on here crying foul (again) but Bernie’s support underwhelming compared to expectations I’d say too? (He was alwaysgoing to win NH, but will definitely have been expecting more than that share)

Who is crying foul today?

Sanders has just won two of the oldest, whitest, and in NH, richest states. He is going to get stronger from here on out, not weaker. His numbers were always going to be lower running against 7 candidates than against the most detested Democratic candidate in living memory - this is just media spin.

The 'moderates' all have fatal flaws, and do not seem likely to unite against him in time - not least because the DNC has artfully disgraced itself yet again in order to cram Bloomberg into the mix.

Sanders is the preferred second choice of the next four candidates to drop out and he has by far the highest popularity ratings among the remaining candidates.

(And he appears to have done just fine in rural NH, for what that's worth).

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

Who is crying foul today?

Sanders has just won two of the oldest, whitest, and in NH, richest states. He is going to get stronger from here on out, not weaker. His numbers were always going to be lower running against 7 candidates than against the most detested Democratic candidate in living memory - this is just media spin.

The 'moderates' all have fatal flaws, and it do not seem likely to unite against him in time - not least because the DNC has artfully disgraced itself in order to push Bloomberg into the mix.

Sanders is the preferred second choice of the next four candidates to drop out and he has by far the highest popularity ratings among the remaining candidates.

(And he appears to have done just fine in rural NH, for what that's worth).

Oh of course his support was going to be lower. But given that he only had 1 direct ideological competitor (and she only got ~10%) his expectation will have been somewhat above what he got.

Also re: Bloomberg, I’m torn. I have no wish for the rules to be changed, but if there’s even a 0.1% chance of him being the nominee, I want him “tested” by going up against the others on a debate stage.

FWIW, I’m also kinda looking forward to Warren and Bernie using him like a chew toy lol

 

[abelard]

Oh of course his support was going to be lower. But given that he only had 1 direct ideological competitor (and she only got ~10%) his expectation will have been somewhat above what he got.

Also re: Bloomberg, I’m torn. I have no wish for the rules to be changed, but if there’s even a 0.1% chance of him being the nominee, I want him “tested” by going up against the others on a debate stage.

FWIW, I’m also kinda looking forward to Warren and Bernie using him like a chew toy lol

Sure, it'd be nice to see him doing a bit better, above thirty, but he's doing just fine, and unlike everyone else in the race, he has a clear path to the nomination. I suspect the numbers in Nevada and South Carolina will change quite a bit in the next few days, as Warren and especially Biden continue to disintegrate. Sanders can effectively wrap things up with a strong Super Tuesday, so the race is on to try to ratfưck him out of it on time.

You're right too, about Bloomberg - he is the Sanders team's dream match-up, the one they've have been expecting and hoping for, going on almost two years now: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/11/bernie-sanders-2020-decision.html

It's pretty damning of the Democratic Party elders that Even the National Review (a publication which exists solely to further enrich men like Michael Bloomberg) can see this a mile off, yet they cannot.

 

[Blue 1]

 

[LinekersLegs]

Who is crying foul today?

Sanders has just won two of the oldest, whitest, and in NH, richest states. He is going to get stronger from here on out, not weaker. His numbers were always going to be lower running against 7 candidates than against the most detested Democratic candidate in living memory - this is just media spin.

The 'moderates' all have fatal flaws, and do not seem likely to unite against him in time - not least because the DNC has artfully disgraced itself yet again in order to cram Bloomberg into the mix.

Sanders is the preferred second choice of the next four candidates to drop out and he has by far the highest popularity ratings among the remaining candidates.

(And he appears to have done just fine in rural NH, for what that's worth).

Lower yes but for comparison in an equally crowded field in 2016 Trump won the GOP primary 35% with Kasich trailing a distant second at 16%.

There is undoubtedly some very positive news for the Sanders camp - the utter collapse of Bernie’s major national rival and even if you don’t believe in the ideological “lane“ theory you’d expect a lot of Warren voters to now switch to him. He has a much wider demographic support base and infrastructure than the other candidates for the upcoming more representative states and enough cash on hand to not be worried by Bloomberg outspending him. Overall he is in a very good position to win the nomination.

But given how strong a state NH was for Bernie last time, apart from his home state Vermont it was his best non caucus primary, I’m still surprised he didn’t get over 30% and/or beat Pete by more than a couple of %.

 

[abelard]

Lower yes but for comparison in an equally crowded field in 2016 Trump won the GOP primary 35% with Kasich trailing a distant second at 16%.

There is undoubtedly some very positive news for the Sanders camp - the utter collapse of Bernie’s major national rival and even if you don’t believe in the ideological “lane“ theory you’d expect a lot of Warren voters to now switch to him. He has a much wider demographic support base and infrastructure than the other candidates for the upcoming more representative states and enough cash on hand to not be worried by Bloomberg outspending him. Overall he is in a very good position to win the nomination.

But given how strong a state NH was for Bernie last time, apart from his home state Vermont it was his best non caucus primary, I’m still surprised he didn’t get over 30% and/or beat Pete by more than a couple of %.

I think Sanders will do much better with Biden supporters than Warren supporters. Her progressive support mostly left her long ago, and those who remain are more likely to switch to Klobuchar or Buttigieg, and eventually Bloomberg.

Warren is cast as a progressive, but she has always had a very different base than Sanders - older wealthy white urban/suburban professionals - who are always more inclined to back candidates pitching themselves to this set of class and cultural interests.

Conversely, last I saw Warren was at 1% with non-college men and barely higher with non-college women, which is why it has always been clear that Trump would have absolutely routed her in a general election.

In essence, she attempted to bridge the gap between young and old, but ended up alienating both.

In some ways she's fortunate to have done so badly, as some her more desperate, cringey, mawkish tokenist stunts of performative wokeness have flown under the radar as a result.

She is very smart and certainly means well, and she could have been the Frances Perkins of her day, had she played her cards well. But she has always had very poor political instincts, and has never really understand what Democratic voters want, resulting in the series of extremely unfortunate decisions which long ago sunk her.

And, because I can sense the seething toxic masculinity from her online bros barreling straight towards me, to be clear - her disastrous performance is not ultimately a good thing for the left.