Everton Summer Transfer Thread - 2022

[GlosBlue]

Tarkowski on £120k a week for 4 years = £25mil.

Tarkowski on £60k a week for 4 years = £12.5mil

Firstly, in 2020 Moyes offered £20mil then £30mil. He returned with £20mil last year when Tarkowski had a year on his contract.

If we pay £120k a week then in 12months put him up for sale at £15mil we could simply sell for that amount and give the lot to Tarkowski.

The same principle applies to Kamara who, if contracted would be going for around the same as Fofana joined Leicester for, if not more.

Both players would have a lot of interest if up for sale and, clubs could simply give the players any transfer fee.

Evertons issue is that we signed players like Gomes for £20mil+. They still have a 'book value' which affects FFP.

So we have to sell over and above a certain amount just to breakeven on FFP. No one is paying such a fee AND Gomes' salary + we cant give Gomes any transfer fee because we need to pocket it for FFP.

If we pay him that and sell in a year's time then a) he will be 30 and thus less attractive to prospective clubs, b) we run the risk that he gets injured and we have another unsellable player on massive wages and, most importantly c) any prospective buyer would have to be willing to match the huge wages or he is not going to want to leave and we have another player riding out a huge contract.

 

[NeilA1878]

The 17/18 loss was massively influenced by a significant profit from player sales I think to the tune of £80+ million.

As for player trading in 21/22 I came to roughly the same number.

But my point here without knowing the numbers by the time you added back the deductibles from that £10 ish million 17/18 loss it’s probable that they were way in excess of £25 million ( woman’s football, academy etc) it’s therefore likely that in that year far from contributing to the £105 million there was probably £20-30 million credit that won’t be carried over.

Working out the overall 21/22 year is extremely difficult to do so because of course there will be circa £11 million less in TV revenue due to your lower finish, yep gate receipts will be there but with that extra income will come some other costs such as stewarding. There almost certainly will be a chunk of exceptional costs from the sacking of Benetiz added to it the ending of the association with USM.

Amortisation will be key and still significant but in the last couple of years you have shown significant sums in terms of impairment which probably was necessary. I personally think that the wording from your CEO about still trying to estimate the actual COVID losses was put into the notes accompanying the accounts was aimed at a far wider audience.

You will get I suspect a very early hint about how the numbers look or should I say the room to manoeuvre when you see who and where from the the first two or three player bought in come from.

Difficult to work out the ins and outs of the FFP caluclation, but what is clear is that come July 1st we will have cut costs (before transfer profit etc.) of 80M or so. Still think we need to make a big sale (even Kean) to give us some proper room to bring some costly players in but should be very different to last summer.

 

[Street end man]

Whether we get this Burnley lad or not I'll open up myself to strong comments against me but I'm convinced with the amount of centre backs on the books we have a partnership somewhere just waiting to flourish.

Times have been hard and pressure immense over the last few seasons with the manager swaps and relegation battle and in all honesty we've never had a partnership lasting more than a few games.
I love Mina, and jeez if he was a 40 game a year player he's the best. However I think he's been part of the problem in as much as when he's fit he plays, then retires injured and the continuity and stability of the centre back area is shattered again. Keane gets Maguire levels of stick but both of these blokes are England players and can be great on their day......Keane with confidence can be up there with the best. Whether it's Holgate, Branthwaite, or Godfrey we must have a pairing somewhere.

With that out of the way lol , it's a good defensive midfielder(or 2) I'm burning to see us linked with, that is one of the main areas for me we really need to sort ASAP.

Then a striker, just one if DCL stays, just to give him serious competition, and 2 if he leaves. Get those 2 positions sorted and I'll be happy and wait to see what else turns up.

 

[WestStandLower]

Difficult to work out the ins and outs of the FFP caluclation, but what is clear is that come July 1st we will have cut costs (before transfer profit etc.) of 80M or so. Still think we need to make a big sale (even Kean) to give us some proper room to bring some costly players in but should be very different to last summer.

It is indeed especially as there isn’t any indication as to which players were assessed to be with lower than their amortised value.
As for which players will be sold that will tell a tale in itself but you need the biggest bang for your bucks so high amortised value big fee or no amortised value not quite so big a fee.
As for Kean isn’t he on a two year loan deal at Juve? If he is I doubt Juve will buy him . If you mean Keane his amortised value is under £10 million So a sell of £20 million ish would help somewhat

 

[MACCA75]

I was reminding you of my own signings predicton history

Wasn’t terrible was it? Predicted McNeil and Longstaff before they were heavily linked.

Anything could happen this summer tbh, so I’ll spare you my awful predictions!

 

[Neiler]

The 17/18 loss was massively influenced by a significant profit from player sales I think to the tune of £80+ million.

As for player trading in 21/22 I came to roughly the same number.

But my point here without knowing the numbers by the time you added back the deductibles from that £10 ish million 17/18 loss it’s probable that they were way in excess of £25 million ( woman’s football, academy etc) it’s therefore likely that in that year far from contributing to the £105 million there was probably £20-30 million credit that won’t be carried over.

Working out the overall 21/22 year is extremely difficult to do so because of course there will be circa £11 million less in TV revenue due to your lower finish, yep gate receipts will be there but with that extra income will come some other costs such as stewarding. There almost certainly will be a chunk of exceptional costs from the sacking of Benetiz added to it the ending of the association with USM.

Amortisation will be key and still significant but in the last couple of years you have shown significant sums in terms of impairment which probably was necessary. I personally think that the wording from your CEO about still trying to estimate the actual COVID losses was put into the notes accompanying the accounts was aimed at a far wider audience.

You will get I suspect a very early hint about how the numbers look or should I say the room to manoeuvre when you see who and where from the the first two or three player bought in come from.

Good post mate, on 17/18 you cant take sales in isolation, we actually spent more then we brought in and increased the wage bill significantly, which obviously increases amortisation and the cost base broadly, we had a net spend for that year of +£76 mill even after significant sales and really increased our cost base, we spent + 200 mill gross. I know we didn't post a huge loss that year. But if we take 21/22 we are in credit in terms of our net spend, while we have reduced costs - as you say how much will be telling and we are both speculating. But my hope on the bare numbers is it might be that 17/18 and 21/22 may be comparable when adding to the three year cycle - we knew what we had to do. I suspect you are right, the types of deals we approach will be telling - i dont think we will go big in the market without sales, but i like to think we have a bit of scope for a couple of targeted improvements, if im right about the interchangabiliy of 17/18 & 21/22.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

Wasn’t terrible was it? Predicted McNeil and Longstaff before they were heavily linked.

Anything could happen this summer tbh, so I’ll spare you my awful predictions!

nO i PREDICTED BIG BUYS AND THEY NEVER HAPPPENED. wE DID TRY HARD FOR dUMFRIES AND dIAZ WAS ON AT ONE POINT.


ARGH WORKING IN CAPS IS CRAP

 

[Rooney_Tunes]

nO i PREDICTED BIG BUYS AND THEY NEVER HAPPPENED. wE DID TRY HARD FOR dUMFRIES AND dIAZ WAS ON AT ONE POINT.


ARGH WORKING IN CAPS IS CRAP

REAlLy?

 

[davids]

Ali can barely get into the team at the moment, a couple of decent passes and people seem to think he is the answer all of a sudden, not for me. DCL hit 16 in the league last season not 20, that was including cups and the bulk of his goals came pre Christmas, he didn't score a single goal for about 3 months after it. As for replacements not being as good, so he is the only 25 year old professional footballer who has scored 16 goals in a season and it will never be replicated again will it? At the end of the day mate, I just don't think he is as good as you do its just my view thats all.

Even 16 goals in the Prem is expensive to replace.

 

[Raino85]

The big difference is this:

He's easier to sell on at a later stage if he earns £60k per week. If we pay him £120k per week then he stays here until his contract expires, whether we want him to or not.

Decent counter argument I suppose.
That would be the risk you have to weigh up!

 

[jonnyboy316]

You pay players like Kamara, Digne, Coutinho 150,000/week plus and Tarkowski 120,000/week you very quickly have players like Jacob Ramsey, Matty Cash McGinn and Konsa knocking on the door asking why players that arent as good as them are getting paid twice as much...

This is the key point. You can’t isolate it to just the player involved it has a knock on impact to negotiations with other players. A bigger problem if the player involved is pretty average like Tarkowski

 

[Raino85]

That level of wage can't be viable long term for Villa surely in terms of wage to turnover ratio.

They probably have another 2 years of managing it, with the Grealish sale.

I saw them linked with Carlos at Sevilla today.

While i'm not your Zat type 'they need to be 15 and need sell on value' type of person for every signing

If they buy Carlos that would be him, Digne, Coutinho, Ings & Martinez all over 28 for over £100 million

Low fee's or free's for players of this type of age are more than fine, but we all know what happens with the likes of Sigurdsson, Walcott, Schneiderlin etc, when you pay big bucks for players of a certain age.
They may last for 18 months, but after that the player dips in form etc and needs replacing, but no one wants to pay you for them

 

[Zatara]

Linked with Ederson at Salernitana.

22 year old Brazilian midfielder who signed for them in January and played a huge part in keeping them from being relegated.

Éderson Scouting Report 2022: Why The Brazilian Could Be One Of The Bargains Of The Summer

In July 2020, Éderson scored his first-ever goal for Corinthians.

totalfootballanalysis.com

Hes their record signing at £6mil and their previous record sale was about double that.

 

[TheBigIguana]

They probably have another 2 years of managing it, with the Grealish sale.

I saw them linked with Carlos at Sevilla today.

While i'm not your Zat type 'they need to be 15 and need sell on value' type of person for every signing

If they buy Carlos that would be him, Digne, Coutinho, Ings & Martinez all over 28 for over £100 million

Low fee's or free's for players of this type of age are more than fine, but we all know what happens with the likes of Sigurdsson, Walcott, Schneiderlin etc, when you pay big bucks for players of a certain age.
They may last for 18 months, but after that the player dips in form etc and needs replacing, but no one wants to pay you for them

Old and not that good is a bad idea (I still rate Digne though)

 

[Tony’s Carp]

They probably have another 2 years of managing it, with the Grealish sale.

I saw them linked with Carlos at Sevilla today.

While i'm not your Zat type 'they need to be 15 and need sell on value' type of person for every signing

If they buy Carlos that would be him, Digne, Coutinho, Ings & Martinez all over 28 for over £100 million

Low fee's or free's for players of this type of age are more than fine, but we all know what happens with the likes of Sigurdsson, Walcott, Schneiderlin etc, when you pay big bucks for players of a certain age.
They may last for 18 months, but after that the player dips in form etc and needs replacing, but no one wants to pay you for them

When folk here were going crazy in Jan about us selling Digne I commented that, from the reverse perspective, if we were signing a 28 year old left back on 6 figures a week and a 29 year old injury prone Barca reject on megabucks, we’d be complaining that no lessons had been learned from our recent problems. And now it seems Villa are potentially carrying on that policy into the summer too.

It’s short-termism and we know the pitfalls of that. Realistically, what is their short-term goal? The top teams with higher revenue are spending as much or more so cracking the top 4 is more remote than ever. Even Europa is unlikely, conference at a push, and would that balance out this enormous burden they are putting on wages for players with little sell-on value?

It’s depressing to have to be realistic about things, for them or us, but we’ve seen ourselves what happens when you pile too much into unlikely short-term goals.