1) Agreed
2) 100% agreed - this is probably the most important point in any bounce back debate
3) Disagree - they have missed the most days to injury & the most match (PL) appearances due to injury. Both very similar stats & the most telling, despite it ignoring the compounded nature of their injury list. They have double the average in both metrics compared to league in totality
4) I'm not so sure, I think it's an easy argument to say, they havent conceded that many goals; so therefore defence has been ok, but the reality for them is their full backs and MF have both massively struggled without the platform offered by their defence. Tons of variables for this, including confidence, lack of Midfield & their triangles and so on and so on. What I do think will be one of Klopps biggest regrets from this season will be failing to back Nat Phillips from early doors & shoehorning MF's into CB, which with hindsight (as many argued at the time as well) was a stupid decision.
On the overarching point of the Klopp next move - I'd tend to agree; it's a hailmary play & I think it is unlikely he can reverse this seasons collapse, but I feel it is the only chance he has & there are more variables in his favour than Pochettino had. He can argue next year will be different with the return of the crowds, injuries, rest, pre season and simply civilization getting back to normal. Poch had none of these cards to play, players were tired & it was very hard for Poch to make a case for proper change. As an outsider looking in it does feel like everything together has hit them hard, they look downbeat, sad and feeling sorry for themselves. Covid is certainly not the cause of that, but it will take its toll when other things are tough.
In terms of predicting points totals, I appreciate it is your best guess and nothing more, but for me it is an impossible task, especially with no clue what their squad will look like. What we are seeing more and more is there is little correlation in results from one year to the next & there is no reason that will change, it could get worse. Simply look at Villa / West Ham for counter intuitive performances, there are countless of examples of +20 point swings in PL performance year on year and that trend seems to be growing rather than declining.
My guess is they are at the point, where they are praying they dont get Europa or the other tournament managing a lighter load with the hope of getting top 4 the next year, but that is of course risky business in itself.
