The projections are supposedly (obvs pinch of salt) based on the government's measures working.
That means that the peak will be 10-14 weeks from now (so late May/early June?) but that it will be manageable.
If not, there's absolutely no way that the peak will be that far away. No chance. That's longer than the entire pandemic so far.
We're 2-3 weeks behind Italy. So if none of these measures work then the peak will be April you'd think.
That's why the gov - as useless as they are - are trying to spread it out. It's gonna happen so all they can do is delay and gradually ease the strain by the same amount of people having it, but just not all at once. From what I gather that's the logic.
So yeah it's gonna be a push but that's why I think they'll wait as long as possible to see how it plays out.
If the peak is manageable (so if these gov plans work out) then in theory it shouldn't have to lead to mass cancelations. So if the Euros goes (which I agree with you it probably will do) then there would be that extra time to finish up. Again, in theory.