Relegation Thread 25-26

[barneygumble]

Could need 38+ points this season now these teams have found a bit of form.

Would be hugely ironic if given the points required to stay up, particularly in recent years have been

24/25 - 26
23/24 - 27
22/23 - 35

Feels West Ham always get cursed with the points required to stay up. All for it. Worst group and their arrogance from winning the conference league was beyond annoying.

 

[Lanolin]

Could need 38+ points this season now these teams have found a bit of form.

It’s possible, but it’s hard to tell and ‘form’ is hard to judge over such short periods. West Ham have won 2 in a row but they’ve beaten spurs who are losing to everyone and Sunderland who have 4 points from their last 8 aways and have been in relegation bothering form themselves since Halloween but have a big cushion from a good start. Forest have 7 points from 3 league games but have lost twice in cups in the same timeframe. Teams at the bottom do this every year but sustaining it is different. A couple of years ago people had already decided we could rule Luton out of the relegation battle when they won 3 and drew 2 of a 6 game run around this time of year, then they only won once more in their last 16 games.

 

[Gallaeo]

It would take an enormous shift in results to drag anyone above Leeds into it really. You can never say never but 10 points is a huge gap when you’re talking about teams who are well past the halfway stage and going at less than a point a game.

Ye, get that alright. Palace 8 points ahead of Wham and look a mess, but a win and a draw and ye, they look ok

 

[GoldenToffee]

I can't recall from our various recent relegation battles if 19th and 20th has been locked in so early on in the season? West Ham, Forest and Leeds are basically fighting to not finish 18th, that's it.

 

[Saint Domingo]

It’s possible, but it’s hard to tell and ‘form’ is hard to judge over such short periods. West Ham have won 2 in a row but they’ve beaten spurs who are losing to everyone and Sunderland who have 4 points from their last 8 aways and have been in relegation bothering form themselves since Halloween but have a big cushion from a good start. Forest have 7 points from 3 league games but have lost twice in cups in the same timeframe. Teams at the bottom do this every year but sustaining it is different. A couple of years ago people had already decided we could rule Luton out of the relegation battle when they won 3 and drew 2 of a 6 game run around this time of year, then they only won once more in their last 16 games.

The ability for sides at the bottom to lose a whole number of games in a row is always dramatically overlooked when giving these points forecasts for different teams. It’s why even draws can be so critical at the bottom (as we know from our own experience in those battles). There’s always a team capable of not getting a single point for 6 games in a row and being sucked right back into a battle. Equally a team like Wolves or Burnley that haven’t won for months can suddenly win two on the spin and what looked like a substantial gap can disappear in a few games.

I still look at the squad quality of all the teams round the bottom and consider Wolves Burnley and Leeds as the three to go down but it’s a fools game trying to predict the bottom of the table.

 

[ToffeeTim]

I do think West Ham will probably get at least a point per game so 35 will be needed this year at least. I'm not sure any of the teams from about 14th - 18th are so bad that they will absolutely collapse.

Anyone 10 points or more ahead at this point is definitely safe

 

[Sam0697]

I can't recall from our various recent relegation battles if 19th and 20th has been locked in so early on in the season? West Ham, Forest and Leeds are basically fighting to not finish 18th, that's it.

This time last year I think all 3 were pretty much locked in by now weren't they? It was whenever we beat Leicester

 

[Mikey_Fitzgerald]

Poor West Ham

Would have been a huge win that

 

[Runub]

Blowing bubbles 2 goal leads

 

[Del-boy]

Think the bottom three is the bottom three.

 

[MikeH72]

It’s done now. Leeds aren’t imploding.

 

[Yid4life]

Can't believe i wanted Chelsea to win that. Needs must I suppose.

Feel dirty now though and am off to scrub my mind out with domestos.

 

[catcherintherye]

It’s possible, but it’s hard to tell and ‘form’ is hard to judge over such short periods. West Ham have won 2 in a row but they’ve beaten spurs who are losing to everyone and Sunderland who have 4 points from their last 8 aways and have been in relegation bothering form themselves since Halloween but have a big cushion from a good start. Forest have 7 points from 3 league games but have lost twice in cups in the same timeframe. Teams at the bottom do this every year but sustaining it is different. A couple of years ago people had already decided we could rule Luton out of the relegation battle when they won 3 and drew 2 of a 6 game run around this time of year, then they only won once more in their last 16 games.

The other thing is, there is this gravitational pull that tends to drag teams down. It's something like Soros idea of reflexivity on stocks, that the results and placing just make the next game harder.

I remember it with us, games were just much harder when you are in the bottom 3.

I said for a while I think West Ham will likely go on another run where they don't win in 10 or whatever. It just grinds away at teams.and I do wonder if pyschologically players check out.

 

[NathDogg]

The other thing is, there is this gravitational pull that tends to drag teams down. It's something like Soros idea of reflexivity on stocks, that the results and placing just make the next game harder.

I remember it with us, games were just much harder when you are in the bottom 3.

I said for a while I think West Ham will likely go on another run where they don't win in 10 or whatever. It just grinds away at teams.and I do wonder if pyschologically players check out.

They collapsed as soon as the Chelsea first went in, not enough at the back to keep them up imo.

That todibo and the Greek grok are abysmal.

 

[BainesontoastNEW]

Just saw that it's West Ham v Leeds on the final day. The cynic in me says the powers that be will ensure that fixture is still relevant...