The Now-Irrelevant 2024/25 Relegation Battle (Without Everton!)

[Marius57]

Knowing if we just removed every point we've won since Moyes come in and still not be bottom 3 just shows how bad that bottom 3 is.

And yet we were with them up until Moyes came in. Shows how poor the last manager therefore was.

 

[ToffeeTim]

Knowing if we just removed every point we've won since Moyes come in and still not be bottom 3 just shows how bad that bottom 3 is.

The bottom 3 are terrible, but the statistic wasn't right. Winning games like the Leicester one are crucial in building a gap because if you lose those kind of games, you get into big trouble.

I think today and last night effectively ended the relegation battle. 5 points is a huge gap for 2 very average teams to make up in only 12 games. And everyone above Wolves are now safe so fewer teams involved. Both Leicester and Ipswich have quite a few very tough games left as well.

I would be very surprised if there is any change to the current bottom 3. And we can start preparing for next season.

 

[The binman chronicles]

There is always a risk that one of the 2 going on a good run i guess. We still have to play Ipswich at home. Depending on how far back in the league they are then, it could be a game we must not lose. 2 winnable fixtures coming up for us, but squad is thin as paper right now and knackered. Win the next 2, and we are 100% safe.

Something massive would have to happen for either to go on a run, even if they did that's what that average is for. Theoretically they could pick up 9 points in succession but then are just as likely to lose the other 9. Else we're asking them to post European qualification results to the end of the season, they don't have the squads to do so.

 

[The Littlest Yobo]

Knowing if we just removed every point we've won since Moyes come in and still not be bottom 3 just shows how bad that bottom 3 is.

But we would be bottom 3. If we had zero points under Moyes, it has to mean that Leicester would have beaten us. It can’t have been a draw as we can’t have won any points. Leicester would be on 20 points, we’d be on 17 and in the bottom 3.

 

[GrandOldTeam]

And yet we were with them up until Moyes came in. Shows how poor the last manager therefore was.

This team earned enough points for 12th last season. We were lucky last season with injuries. 4 points behind a much better, Moyes' West Ham side.

It'll float between 12th-17th next season too - lower end if injuries.

If we really want to move away from the wrong end of the table, we need to spend big, and well this summer.

 

[Tony’s Carp]

Knowing if we just removed every point we've won since Moyes come in and still not be bottom 3 just shows how bad that bottom 3 is.

The point it illustrates is certainly correct.

 

[GrandOldTeam]

The bottom 3 are terrible, but the statistic wasn't right. Winning games like the Leicester one are crucial in building a gap because if you lose those kind of games, you get into big trouble.

I think today and last night effectively ended the relegation battle. 5 points is a huge gap for 2 very average teams to make up in only 12 games. And everyone above Wolves are now safe so fewer teams involved. Both Leicester and Ipswich have quite a few very tough games left as well.

I would be very surprised if there is any change to the current bottom 3. And we can start preparing for next season.

Mentioned to someone on here prior Liverpool if we took 4 points from Liverpool and Palace that was that. So after the win Vs Palace I figured we were no longer in danger.

But we would be bottom 3. If we had zero points under Moyes, it has to mean that Leicester would have beaten us. It can’t have been a draw as we can’t have won any points. Leicester would be on 20 points, we’d be on 17 and in the bottom 3.

I think the point is illustrative of the below;

Not sure that's really the angle to be fair, more an indication that the relegation mark is moving so slowly we have absolutely nothing to worry about.

 

[ToffeeTim]

Something massive would have to happen for either to go on a run, even if they did that's what that average is for. Theoretically they could pick up 9 points in succession but then are just as likely to lose the other 9. Else we're asking them to post European qualification results to the end of the season, they don't have the squads to do so.

It would take a huge run for us to get pushed back into trouble. And also a completely appalling finish by ourselves. Probably would have to go winless.

14 points from 12 games to gain parity would already be a big increase in their current points per game rate. Every point we gain just increases the runs they need to go on. Plus we also have a 8 point gap on wolves as well.

I think this weekend was pretty decisive in the relegation battle. I'd be surprised if this goes to the final fortnight of the season.

 

[The Littlest Yobo]

Mentioned to someone on here prior Liverpool if we took 4 points from Liverpool and Palace that was that. So after the win Vs Palace I figured we were no longer in danger.



I think the point is illustrative of the below;

But it’s completely wrong. We’d literally be in the bottom 3 and 3 points adrift of Leicester. Not sure what point is supposed to be made by pretending otherwise.

 

[Tony’s Carp]

It would take a huge run for us to get pushed back into trouble. And also a completely appalling finish by ourselves. Probably would have to go winless.

14 points from 12 games to gain parity would already be a big increase in their current points per game rate. Every point we gain just increases the runs they need to go on. Plus we also have a 8 point gap on wolves as well.

I think this weekend was pretty decisive in the relegation battle. I'd be surprised if this goes to the final fortnight of the season.

Yeah we're not just in the realm of one highly improbably thing happening but combinations of highly improbable things happening.

 

[GrandOldTeam]

But it’s completely wrong. We’d literally be in the bottom 3 and 3 points adrift of Leicester. Not sure what point is supposed to be made by pretending otherwise.

How about "if the Premier league deducted Everton every point they've earned under David Moyes so far for PSR breach, they're still not in the bottom 3"

That there, is illustrative of just how bad that bottom 3 is.

 

[Tony’s Carp]

But it’s completely wrong. We’d literally be in the bottom 3 and 3 points adrift of Leicester. Not sure what point is supposed to be made by pretending otherwise.

The stat was phrased incorrectly, but the fact that it was meant to illustrate is that the relegation mark was 16 when Dyche left and the bottom three have played 6 games and it's moved all of one point to 17 points.

 

[The Littlest Yobo]

How about "if the Premier league deducted Everton every point they've earned under David Moyes so far for PSR breach, they're still not in the bottom 3"

That there, is illustrative of just how bad that bottom 3 is.

Well it’s at least factually true.

 

[Marius57]

This team earned enough points for 12th last season. We were lucky last season with injuries. 4 points behind a much better, Moyes' West Ham side.

It'll float between 12th-17th next season too - lower end if injuries.

If we really want to move away from the wrong end of the table, we need to spend big, and well this summer.

Except we have a tonne of injuries and getting our best results all season and are at the higher end of that currently.

I maintain as I did last season and the start of this season, this squad is not as bad as people like to make out.

I don’t disagree about spending big etc if we want to progress further, but you are saying that this squad is somewhere between 12-17th, while simultaneously saying how awful the bottom 3 teams are. Yet we were literally only 1 point clear of them until Moyes came in.

 

[TGW89]

If we really want to move away from the wrong end of the table, we need to spend big, and well this summer.

We got fourth with Tiny Tim, Marcus Bent and some 'play for ev' raffle winner called Eddy Bosnar. VAR won't allow such a big fluke again, but who says we need to spend big to finally break into the top half?