Relegation 2022/23

[brieverton]

We did all this though (except the FA Cup win for Leicester) even under Moshiri. We were 7th under Koeman with one of the best young strikers in Europe playing for us. We hired a highly rated young progressive coach in Silva and finished 8th with young players like Richarlison Digne Gomes Bernard etc. We had a fancy DOF. We bought in prospects like Vladic Lookman Sandro Moise Kean.

On paper we sent full hipster numerous times and it didn’t work. We’re just a bit further along that horrible cycle than Leicester are who will now have to sell most of their top players and have to make sure they get a managerial change correct to avoid another relegation battle (of they survive this one).

Either way isn’t it a sad reflection that no non sky six PL team (aside from Moyes’s Everton) has been able to climb the table, make European qualification, and stay there for an extended period of time? If Leicester have a bad season they’re in a relegation battle after years of almost perfect operation. If United have a bad season they’re fifth or maybe even fourth. That’s the difference.

That's always been the difference really.

The top six is a combination of the organically sustainable clubs and the nouveau riche which have that sustainability through money. I'd regard only Spurs as different to the rest in that they are hangers-on in that group and still suffer an inferiority complex. But they have one of the best set-ups to progress. And then there is Newcastle.

Even if we get out of our current predicament and stabilise, it's hard to see us progressing beyond what Brighton are doing. We could do better over a single season or couple of seasons but sustaining beyond that is almost impossible when it's a straight cash fight.

It certainly doesn't mean that improvement isn't desirable though.

 

[Simon Buttle]

I think it's inevitable that at some point they'll find the players they're bringing in just don't quite hit the same level as the ones that are leaving, and the same with staff, whether that's the people front and centre or the scouts and coaches in the background. Plenty of other clubs both in this country and in Europe have done similar to what they're doing for a period but invariably they reach a point where it levels out and then eventually reverts to type. I mean in a way I hope it doesn't happen and they gatecrash the top 6 but I just can't see it lasting indefinitely personally.

I'm sure it won't last forever but everyone said it was going to collapse when Potter left and tbh RDZ is looking like a better manager than Potter and the club is actually pushing on despite the fact they have lost half their staff to Chelsea.

 

[MisterJ]

I think it's inevitable that at some point they'll find the players they're bringing in just don't quite hit the same level as the ones that are leaving, and the same with staff, whether that's the people front and centre or the scouts and coaches in the background. Plenty of other clubs both in this country and in Europe have done similar to what they're doing for a period but invariably they reach a point where it levels out and then eventually reverts to type. I mean in a way I hope it doesn't happen and they gatecrash the top 6 but I just can't see it lasting indefinitely personally.

Don't forget that Brighton had their bad spell with bad owners in the 90's / 00's, almost dropping out of the Football League at one point.

They learnt from that and rebuilt everything about the club. What we see from them now was born from that and has been planned for long term

 

[Saint Domingo]

That's always been the difference really.

The top six is a combination of the organically sustainable clubs and the nouveau riche which have that sustainability through money. I'd regard only Spurs as different to the rest in that they are hangers-on in that group and still suffer an inferiority complex. But they have one of the best set-ups to progress. And then there is Newcastle.

Even if we get out of our current predicament and stabilise, it's hard to see us progressing beyond what Brighton are doing. We could do better over a single season or couple of seasons but sustaining beyond that is almost impossible when it's a straight cash fight.

It certainly doesn't mean that improvement isn't desirable though.

Absolutely. It just annoys me this almost constant season on season ‘why can’t we do what x is doing’ ‘why didn’t we sign y, their recruitment is light years beyond ours’ ‘we should have gone for a manager’

Then you see x is in a relegation battle next season, y isn’t the prodigy everyone thought he was, and a has been fired. But it doesn’t matter because there’s a new shiny ball to follow who Everton have to now base themselves on.

If Spurs is the only example of a club that has somehow clung onto the top 6 then let’s move ourselves to London and pray to god that the greatest striker in our history comes out of the academy at exactly the time that the managers of the top 6 retire and they have a lull.

 

[Lanolin]

Didn’t say there wasn’t anything we could learn from them. The title win however was built on a core of players that fit better into the old da manager with a load of grocks (as one poster put it) than some young progressive philosophy. They literally brought in an old bloke from Italy based it on a solid defence of Morgan Hith Fuchs Simpson, had Albrighton DrinkWater Okazakai working hard, and then had a couple of pieces of star recruitment in Kante and Mahrez. Their only forward planning before then had been a decent buy of Vardy. It wasn’t a jigsaw piece that came together over time. Just shows there’s more than one way to build a winning team.

My point is more that despite whatever successes they have had (which we’d all arguably want) it’s not been the route into sustained attendance at the top table of European football. Since Abramovich took over Chelsea and the era of huge spending and sponsorship started, only two teams have finished in the top 4 outside the big six, and only one team Leicester than had a single season of CL football. The fact that they’re now also in a relegation battle is a bit sad isn’t it? You’d at that decent teams fall all the time, but the big six don’t. They’re too big now and there’s no easy pathway for anyone to join them on a continuous basis. Maybe state ownership at Newcastle will be the answer but that’s also a bit sad in and of itself.

To come at it another way. If everything Everton does is rubbish and always so wrong, and everything everyone else does is always so right, why does every other team eventually find itself in exactly the same position as us fighting relegation?

I don't think anyone thinks that everything we do is wrong and that everything other teams do is right, but I think we are quite widely seen now, by fans of all clubs, as an example of how not to run a club. You're talking about it as if we started from the same base as Wolves and Leicester etc, which is ridiculous in itself. We were a side which was consistently in the top 8, then spent a lot of money, and are now in our second successive relegation battle, having not finished higher than 10th for 4 years. We have quite clearly got substantially worse. In the same time frame, the likes of Wolves and Leicester have been promoted and then cemented themselves (certainly in Leicester's case and arguably in Wolves') as being above us. They have quite clearly got substantially better. Neither of them are perfect, nor is any other club, but if you don't think they've outperformed us as clubs in recent years then you need some new glasses.

 

[allen]

This was their prediction at the start of January:

View attachment 206641

So even though we’re significantly improved under Dyche and have picked up more points they are now predicting we will finish lower ?

I smell BS.

It’s not BS, so much as a flawed application for any sort of predictive model.

If you could successfully apply predictive statistical analysis to football, we’d none of us watch it. We’d also live off unending fountains of winnings from betting.

It’s a wild sport, full of unforeseen occurrences.

FiveThirtyEight should stick to political modelling.

 

[Lanolin]

I'm sure it won't last forever but everyone said it was going to collapse when Potter left and tbh RDZ is looking like a better manager than Potter and the club is actually pushing on despite the fact they have lost half their staff to Chelsea.

Don't forget that Brighton had their bad spell with bad owners in the 90's / 00's, almost dropping out of the Football League at one point.

They learnt from that and rebuilt everything about the club. What we see from them now was born from that and has been planned for long term

Neither of these things really address the point. They are a well run club, everybody knows that, nobody's disputing it. They have replaced people before, again we know this. The point is that it's very difficult to keep doing it, and to continually find improvements. Even things like increased expectations, extra games after making Europe, bigger egos as you get more successful have an impact. Anyway, they won't be going down this year so we've gone a bit off topic, but I would be happy to see us run the club a bit more like they do.

 

[NathDogg]

Feel a little sorry for Viera, but clearly parish has blinked and is very worried about relegation.

Not sure who they will get in now though?

 

[Moonlight dribbler]

This was their prediction at the start of January:

View attachment 206641

So even though we’re significantly improved under Dyche and have picked up more points they are now predicting we will finish lower ?

I smell BS.

If you look deeply enough, you will find a kick off kopite behind the site. They are everywhere dispensing their brand of upset.

 

[Saint Domingo]

I don't think anyone thinks that everything we do is wrong and that everything other teams do is right, but I think we are quite widely seen now, by fans of all clubs, as an example of how not to run a club. You're talking about it as if we started from the same base as Wolves and Leicester etc, which is ridiculous in itself. We were a side which was consistently in the top 8, then spent a lot of money, and are now in our second successive relegation battle, having not finished higher than 10th for 4 years. We have quite clearly got substantially worse. In the same time frame, the likes of Wolves and Leicester have been promoted and then cemented themselves (certainly in Leicester's case and arguably in Wolves') as being above us. They have quite clearly got substantially better. Neither of them are perfect, nor is any other club, but if you don't think they've outperformed us as clubs in recent years then you need some new glasses.

Where have I said they’ve not outperformed us?

Depends what’s timescale you want to take as well. A top 8 base under Moyes yes but before that we were a bottom half team. It only proves my point even more really, a decade of work from a decent manager in Moyes unravelled in the space of a few seasons. Any infrastructure, philosophises, culture he built whilst he was here just disappeared and we went straight back to being a bottom half team threatened all the time with the spectre of relegation.

Wolves and Leicester etc. have of course done better than us recently and have had similar upwards journeys (from a lower base admittedly) but what we’re seeing now is that in exactly the same way all that work can be undone very easily.

Would following what these clubs did be a good idea to get us back up the table, yes, and it’s not like Everton have never done it before by the way when we had some of the best recruitment in the league under Moyes. Will following this route enable us to consistently join the top 6? On historical evidence no. Major major sustained investment is needed and financial regs have made this harder than ever.

 

[Julius Geezer]

On the subject of clutching at straws , the month of April sees us having 5 games to play , West Ham will now have to play 9 games during April after last nights win.

 

[MisterJ]

Neither of these things really address the point. They are a well run club, everybody knows that, nobody's disputing it. They have replaced people before, again we know this. The point is that it's very difficult to keep doing it, and to continually find improvements. Even things like increased expectations, extra games after making Europe, bigger egos as you get more successful have an impact. Anyway, they won't be going down this year so we've gone a bit off topic, but I would be happy to see us run the club a bit more like they do.

I get what you're saying, but their manager appointment has been pretty good since Micky Adams took over there in '99. They've pretty much been on an upward curve since then (If you ignore the time they appointed Sami Hyypi).

Agreed, way off topic, but a good example of a well run, progressive club. Makes you wonder what could have been really...

 

[Saint Domingo]

If City get past Bayern I think we’d be the fixture between their two semi final legs. They could be resting players for that one (not that it makes much difference with their squad but everything helps)

 

[Wat Tyler]

 

[4737carlin]

Feel a little sorry for Viera, but clearly parish has blinked and is very worried about relegation.

Not sure who they will get in now though?

Lampard or Rafael i reckon