Relegation 2022/23

[davek]

Missing West Ham. They don’t play until next month so they will drop into the bottom 3

Yes, they'll be in there but with two games in hand.

I cant see Leeds getting anyhting at Wolves. Wolves looked the better team for much of that matych away to Newcastle. They'll hot 30 points this weekend and have 10 games left to pile up easily enough points. Southampton might do something against Brentford and Spurs. They could leapfrog us. I cant see B'mouth getting anything away at Villa.

The bottom three going into the internatyional break is almost certainly going to be three from WHU, Leeds, S'ton and B'mouth...with Everton or Leicester just above them.

It'd be great to get a point down there at Chelsea. Such a morale boost. I never fancy them there though, and the recent return to form + it being a noght match + it being the last game before the break will tell against us, I fear.

Right now I'd take a win against Spurs out of the next three, bank it and focus on those last 8 games to get another 9 or 10 points, which should be enough.

 

[mikel_88]

will be hard but from the 3 games would like us to pick up atleast 3 points. 5 would be amazing if we can pull it off

 

[sbbefc]

I'd settle for a point from the next 3. 3 points would exceed expectations.

 

[JohnRoss23]

Especially if we're in the bottom three with the 2 week break to come. Pampers getting filled all over the place.

This place will be insufferable.

 

[JohnRoss23]

We always seem to pick up points when least expected. I think we will pick up 4 points from the next 3 which will be massive. I think most are expecting us to get one or zero.

 

[sbbefc]

We're probably looking at 4 wins and a draw to stay up (38 points). A draw from our next 3 would tick off the draw we need. Then it's 8 games left to get the 4 wins (or three draws and three wins). A a big ask but doable.

If we could miraculously get a win in the next three I'd be confident of survival.

The positives are, with our form since Dyche, we could lose the next three and could still have a good go at staying up.

 

[davek]

We always seem to pick up points when least expected. I think we will pick up 4 points from the next 3 which will be massive. I think most are expecting us to get one or zero.

3 points keeps us well on course. 28 points.

From there at worst I'd say we'd get 10 points from the remainder, but more realistically 12 or 13...which would be keeping the ratio of points per game so far under Dyche going.

Either scenario would be easily enough to get clear when all the others down there have been carving each other up.

 

[davek]

Looking at the remaining games for the others in trouble:

I honestly cant see where Forest are getting more than 7 or 8 points from, or Leicester getting more than 10, or Bournemouth, S'ton or Leeds getting more than 9 points. That lot wont get much more than 34 points IMO....certainly 3 of the 5 will struggle badly to get their final total up to that level.

On the flip side, I can see Wolves geting to safety pretty quickly now, with Palace and eventually West Ham also getting clear (although I've been saying that for a few weeks now about those two so maybe they wont turn the corner).

Even in the worst case scenario I see us picking up 11 points. I just cant see us falling away from a ratio of winning almost half the points so far under Dyche to one where we pick up less than a third of the points in the last 11 games. I think he has us too stable for that.

We just need to ensurer the next 3 games yields us at least 3 points and I think we'll be fine in the last 8 games.

 

[knowing your history]

It's a big one for Southampton tomorrow.

Win and they'll be on 25 points, GD improving and with some of their home games left they'll be fancying getting to 35-36 points at the very least.

It reminds me ironically of Southampton going to Burnley last season. Loads said it would be a very hard game but Burnley rolled them over comfortably and then won two more after that.

Think Brentford on 38 points are basically on beach mode and in any case they don't win that many away from home, drawn loads so I can't say I'm that hopeful they'll do much especially given Saints have been re-energised since Nathan Jones was sacked.

 

[knowing your history]

3 points keeps us well on course. 28 points.

From there at worst I'd say we'd get 10 points from the remainder, but more realistically 12 or 13...which would be keeping the ratio of points per game so far under Dyche going.

Either scenario would be easily enough to get clear when all the others down there have been carving each other up.

Going to have to defend very very well to get that points ratio imo.

Of course generally the team has been excellent defensively at Goodison under Dyche but away it's still 8 goals conceded in just the 3 away games so it's just very difficult to even get a draw in that scenario especially as you're more likely to fall behind.

Potter is already working his magic at Chelsea and they're barely scoring more than a goal a game so perhaps could dig out a 1-1 but doing well I think to go to Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford and concede less than two apiece.

I was actually impressed with how team set up for first 40 minutes at the Emirates so that's a template but against the best attacking players all it takes is a bit of quality and then the game quickly goes away.9

 

[knowing your history]

Looking at the remaining games for the others in trouble:

I honestly cant see where Forest are getting more than 7 or 8 points from, or Leicester getting more than 10, or Bournemouth, S'ton or Leeds getting more than 9 points. That lot wont get much more than 34 points IMO....certainly 3 of the 5 will struggle badly to get their final total up to that level.

On the flip side, I can see Wolves geting to safety pretty quickly now, with Palace and eventually West Ham also getting clear (although I've been saying that for a few weeks now about those two so maybe they wont turn the corner).

Even in the worst case scenario I see us picking up 11 points. I just cant see us falling away from a ratio of winning almost half the points so far under Dyche to one where we pick up less than a third of the points in the last 11 games. I think he has us too stable for that.

We just need to ensurer the next 3 games yields us at least 3 points and I think we'll be fine in the last 8 games.

Most of them are playing each other though?

I mean Forest go to Leeds and win and suddenly they're on 29 points so suddenly they can see 6-7 points from the Wolves, Southampton, Brighton home games. Then played out a draw at Palace on the last day to make sure.

Of course Leeds could win that instead and who's to say they won't go to Wolves at the weekend and win that given they did last season. Suddenly they'd be on 29 points themselves.

I think the winner of Southampton-Bournemouth will have the momentum to get what they need in the run in.

Looking at some of the games coming up in next few weeks I think it's pretty unlikely the team will be outside bottom 3 after the Man. United game. I'd be pleasantly surprised anyway. What hopefully won't happen is team on 26 points and bottom of the table otherwise the pressure is just going to be insane going into the Fulham match although seems in last 12 months the club actually responds well to last chances and gets wins that way.

 

[knowing your history]

Monday 3rd April

Everton-Spurs

Tuesday 4th April

Bournemouth-Brighton

Leeds-Forest

Leicester-Villa

Weds 5th

West Ham-Newcastle

That's a big few days imo, most of those matches were due to be played in September so been held over a long time. After beating Liverpool at home Bournemouth will actually be pretty confident of getting at least a draw v Brighton and they were 0-0 up to 89th minute in the away game.

Leeds-Forest obvious six pointer and loser of that game going to feel very deflated with the run ins.

Think Leicester will have a new manager by time of Villa game and they won 2-4 at Villa Park so that's a game they'll be targeting to win.

West Ham is the curveball. Drew 1-1 at St James but those type of draws aren't really going to cut it for much longer. Can see Isak giving their depth a torrid time as that was a superb header by him the other day.

Either side of that midweek you have Bournemouth-Fulham and Leicester-Bournemouth and also West Ham-Southampton and Leeds-Palace.

Regrettably they're not all going to end in draws so some teams in bottom 6-7 will be winning games in the next few weeks. I'm amazed anyone still thinks 34-35 points will be enough.

 

[RomanReigns]

Bournemouth at home baby

Don’t forget

 

[knowing your history]

Bournemouth at home baby

Don’t forget

Yeah last day is going to be one of those about 6 teams in relegation zone at various points imo. Leicester-West Ham and Palace-Forest also happening.

 

[hoppy]

Could do with a favour from Brentford and Brighton to win the games