Plotting Everton’s Route To Safety

Sean Dyche hailed a second successive home win as a “step in the right direction” after the 1-0 win over fellow strugglers Leeds lifted Everton out relegation zone and dropped their opponents into it.

That victory was Everton’s second in three games under new manager Sean Dyche, lifting them up to 16th place.

No doubt a step in the right direction.

The league table is currently a lot easier on the blood pressure for any Evertonian brave enough to glance at it, but there’s no doubt Everton remain in a perilous position.

Let’s take a quick look at what Everton will need to do to prevent the final season at Goodison Park being in the Championship…

There’s 15 games to go.

We’re on 21 points.

We need 19 more points to achieve the traditional safety of 40 points.

Since the Premier League became a 20-team league from 1995/96, 40 points or more has only been needed on four occasions (96/97, 97/98, 02/03 and 10/11).

Due to the way in which the season is shaping, it’s unlikely we’ll need the traditional 40 points. Reviewing recent seasons – 36 was enough in 2021/22, 29 in 2020/21 and 35 in 2019/20. If you’re a very anxious Evertonian, you can work out that on average, 36 points is needed to stay in the Premier League each campaign.

But, for arguments sake and for those of an “Everton, that” disposition – let’s stick with 40 points as being ‘safe’.

So what does the path to 40 points look like for Everton?

Well, something like this;

4 Wins
7 Draws
4 Defeats.
= 19 Points.

Or this;

5 Wins.
4 Draws.
6 Defeats.
= 19 Points.

Or this…

6 Wins.
1 Draws.
8 Defeats.
= 19 Points.

Where are those points going to come from?

Well, I’ll let you try and work that one out.

From the 15 games remaining, Everton have 7 at home, and 8 away.

Aston Villa H
Arsenal A
Nottingham Forest A
Brentford H
Chelsea A
Tottenham H
Man Utd A
Fulham H
Crystal Palace A
Newcastle H
Leicester A
Brighton A
Man City H
Wolves A
Bournemouth H