It doesn’t mean much to say that Everton have beaten Swansea every time they’ve played for nearly thirty years.
December’s Premier League meeting at Goodison Park was the first time the two clubs have faced off since February 1983. The historical statistics are weighed heavily in the Merseyside club’s favour, winning ten of the fourteen games they’ve played, the remaining four ending as a draw.
The more relevant stats show a Swansea team which has lost just two Premier League games at the Liberty Stadium this season. Brendan Rodgers’ team have conceded just ten goals in fourteen home league games, a record bettered only by Manchester City in the top flight. They have drawn six times at home and at 9/4 in this game a sharing of the points wouldn’t be a bad result for Everton or backers of the draw.
Three of Everton’s last four away games have ended 1-1, a scoreline which pays out at 5/1 in this match. David Moyes’ team have been tough to beat all season but over their last twelve games in all competitions, only Liverpool have put more than one goal past Tim Howard. Swansea aren’t exactly prolific with 18 goals in 14 home games so the Blues’ backline should be able to restrict the Swansea attack.
Up front Nikica Jelavic looks to be settling in well at Goodison Park. He showed his finishing ability against Spurs and he has displayed hard running and clever movement up front. He is 7/1 to score first and 13/5 to score anytime. In a game which will undoubtedly be a close battle, Tim Cahill is another to consider. The Australian nabbed the equaliser against Sunderland in the FA Cup and it would be just like him to go on a scoring run at this vital time of the season. Cahill is 8/1 to score first and 3/1 to score anytime.
Three of the last five goals Swansea have conceded have been from headers. Given the quality of delivery from Leyton Baines and Stephen Pienaar, the likes of Fellaini at 16/1 to score first and Sylvain Distin at 50/1 are worth considering.
There’s no denying how good Swansea have been at home this season and winning at the Liberty Stadium is no easy matter. An Everton win is 9/4 and if they do win a score-line of 2-1 at 10/1 is the most likely result. To cover yourself you can take Everton in the draw no bet market at 11/8 and if the game ends as a draw you get your money back.
David Moyes will go looking for all three points but if he comes away with one he’s unlikely to be too disappointed.