Our chances of Champions League football next year?

[Allezfan]

That's assuming that the form book is the same as last season. Take out the guaranteed 6 pointer with United and take into account that teams like Sunderland are looking to strengthen and it will probably give us less wiggle room

Not really, if the lower teams get better that means there's less points earned by the top teams and so we can afford to slip up more.

The top 7 got an unusually large amount of points last year cos the bottom 13 were awful. Normally you'd expect us to lose more games and finish higher.

Still, even if the top7 pulls even further away next year, I'd still pretty much guarantee we could slip up in at least 12 games and still nail 4th.

It's not a 'one mistake and we're out' thing. Look at arsenal terrible form last spring where they got thrashed by 4 goals repeatedly, they still did it in the end.

 

[Mikey_Fitzgerald]

Not really, if the lower teams get better that means there's less points earned by the top teams and so we can afford to slip up more.

The top 7 got an unusually large amount of points last year cos the bottom 13 were awful. Normally you'd expect us to lose more games and finish higher.

Still, even if the top7 pulls even further away next year, I'd still pretty much guarantee we could slip up in at least 12 games and still nail 4th.

It's not a 'one mistake and we're out' thing. Look at arsenal terrible form last spring where they got thrashed by 4 goals repeatedly, they still did it in the end.

I'm expecting the top 4 to be nailed on very early to be honest, meaning we'll need to be in the running early to keep up pace. I'm expecting a substantial drop between 4th and 5th this season. To be in that 5th slot and knocking on the door for 4th, there really is little room for failure. It could be a case of 1 or 2 bad results and we're out of the running

I feel Chelsea, City, United are going to be 1-3 in some order, with Liverpool and Arsenal both with more money than us in 4-5 and then Spurs and Us in the next level. All 6 of those teams can strengthen in Jan when we probably won't be able to. Hence I see us needing an amazing run just to stay remotely in contention

 

[zirc]

Think 4th will require a bare minimum of 75 points this year, and more likely close to 80. Don't think we have any realistic chance of that sort of points total while focusing on Europa league.

 

[Allezfan]

I'm expecting the top 4 to be nailed on very early to be honest, meaning we'll need to be in the running early to keep up pace. I'm expecting a substantial drop between 4th and 5th this season. To be in that 5th slot and knocking on the door for 4th, there really is little room for failure. It could be a case of 1 or 2 bad results and we're out of the running

I feel Chelsea, City, United are going to be 1-3 in some order, with Liverpool and Arsenal both with more money than us in 4-5 and then Spurs and Us in the next level. All 6 of those teams can strengthen in Jan when we probably won't be able to. Hence I see us needing an amazing run just to stay remotely in contention

Normally you only need 18-21 wins to make it to 4th. Last season and this, we'll probably need 22-25 wins.

Which out of 38 games is quite an ask. It's not easy.

But it also means we can afford to be unlucky or bad in 13 to 16 games. Which is a lot of second chances. That's more optimistic way of looking at it.

The thing is in Bobby's first season we were 9 points off, now he has the players believing, he's worked with them for longer, he's been in the market.

I think we can make up those 9 points. Easy as.

 

[Blue Cheese]

can't answer this topic until I have seen how our squad looks by the end of the window.

 

[Hellerad]

There will be more parity at the top this season. That means the point totals won't be as high but it will be more difficult to poach points from the top 7 clubs.

We have to do better at taking points away from the bottom 10.

Liverpool will struggle without Suarez. Tottenham will improve under Pochettino. ManU will improve under VG.

Europa really will be our best shot at CL and the cups will be a priority. Unless we build some depth, Top 4 will be more difficult than last season.

 

[Dexter]

Just when i'd pulled meself out of the depths of depression along comes this thread, well, it's just brought back utter frustration because last season was our only hope, it was there for the taking, Arsenal were all over the show and we get McGeady and Traore, two bad signings it turned out because they did nothing for our champs league push, if only........

 

[ah11984]

More chance of winning the Europa league than coming in the top 4, in my opinion.

 

[matty1878]

More chance of winning the Europa league than coming in the top 4, in my opinion.

Top 7 at best tbf.

 

[mythbuster]

Top 7 at best tbf.

I'd give you some credibility if you hadn't said "at best."

 

[kevdotbadger]

Zero. As we stand we are weaker than the team that finished 5th last year, meaning we'll be lucky to get 5th.

 

[ste d' indica]

I'd be more confident in going full tilt at the Europa if wasn't for the bloody Champions League teams dropping in, that could really throw up some unexpected tough opponents.
If we were still in touch with the top 4 by March and OK injuries wise I think I'd still rather concentrate on the PL to be honest, be unwise to base a seasons ambition on CL through a route where a knock-out game could send it all tits up. That said, if the top-four are away and gone and we were looking pretty good for a top 6/8/ maybe even top 10 finish, it might be worth throwing the dice on an attempted Europa win.

Think it'll be tough to for all of us next season (teams with any aspiration of CL) though, and another season in the Europa might be a more realistic expectation.

 

[Billy Dean]

Kinda pointless debating this till teams have completed their transfer business. But speaking hypothetically, I think we have a good chance of finishing above the RS and Spurs if we do the business we need to do. Can't see us pipping any of Chelsea, Arsenal and the Manc clubs for a CL place though.

 

[The Cowboy]

we had an amazing last season, yet were 7 points off the pace. I know we could say "if only we would have beaten palace, west brom, cardiff, norwich" e.t.c., but realistically it would require an even greater effort than last season, as man utd will be back in the mix.

I think we ran out of steam at the end, rather than being consistently off the pace. Remember we went into 4th after beating Arsenal, with just a handful of games left. I don't think we missed out on 4th because we had a lesser squad than Arsenal.

 

[Roztitute]

I wanna remain optimistic, but I think we'll just miss out. For the obvious reason of course, money talks.