Today’s Football 2021/22 Season

[nsno-chris]

Good rant that….impressed

Oh there’s more to come

I may hit the vaults so I can name and shame

 

[Nymzee]

Can see how reliant Leeds are on Phillips but they just don't have the same verve and press that they had last year.

 

[Daveysgingerlovechild]

I'm watching ze Germans mate. All through Covid I've not really missed premier league games, even with having a season ticket, but I've really missed touring the lower leagues on my weekends off from Goodison. If it wasn't for Everton I wouldn't pay it much attention to be honest.

Heh, yeah, its quite nice going to a game as a neutral. You can watch folk going mental without getting caught up in it or having too much of an emotional attachment.

 

[nsno-chris]

Been deceived because they run loads. Same with Alpine Klopp.

Looooads of running. Can't defend. Look like relegation.

It was obvious that last year was a complete one off, the man is 65 and hasn’t won a bean

 

[ste d' indica]

Heh, yeah, its quite nice going to a game as a neutral. You can watch folk going mental without getting caught up in it or having too much of an emotional attachment.

It is, also it makes me realise that if I was to move anywhere, if there's some togger getting played nearby I'll be happy going there.

 

[Wat Tyler]

I love this version of Leeds.

Could watch this every week and not get bored.

I do enjoy a good Leeds beatdown at Elland Road

 

[Milk]

At least the Leeds keeper is keeping warm.

Entertaining stuff though

 

[Bohemian Toffee]

Can see how reliant Leeds are on Phillips but they just don't have the same verve and press that they had last year.

Bamford has also been a huge miss for them, he seemed to get goals out of not much last season.

 

[Wat Tyler]

Their midfield do not track any runners at all, it’s mad.

 

[Toast]

It was obvious that last year was a complete one off, the man is 65 and hasn’t won a bean

The fact fans once protested outside his house years ago and he went outside and threatened them with a stick of dynamite is truly a thing of absolute beauty though.

Not enough of that..

 

[Encoder]

Where was that Leeds fan who came on and used spreadsheets to tell us that Klich was the best attacking midfielder in Europe?

@LeedsW5 was who I was thinking of.

I don't think we've been 'found out' - Arsenal have the 2nd best defence in the division and spent most of the game (even before Pepe's Red) with every man behind the ball. 3 World Class saves from Leno and 3 post hits are just bad luck, not that the system isn't working.

I think we'll be nowhere near the drop this, next, or any future years. The squad is of much better quality than any of the teams below us or in the Championship, and is far closer to pushing on and overhauling the mid-table lot than to falling back.

It's the same with everyone though who assume we must be fluking it, I assure you by 8pm Saturday you'll have a different view.

And tbf 'Screams championship' just means 'I've not heard of these players'.

Ayling's been the best RB in the Championship since 2016, Klich is one of the top creators in the division. Then we've got internationals from Germany (Koch), Spain (Llorente, Rodrigo, Hernandez), and England (Phillips) plus a keeper the French are demanding gets picked for the senior side.

We'll be fine this year and add a good amount of quality next year, which Blades have markedly failed to do.

A nice put down from Bungle leads to a discussion of XG:

I mean what even is this? What a monumental bore, I suspect if you've managed to attract a woman at any point in your life it's probably ended with you watching her get ploughed by another fella whilst you knock one out to her ball retention stats

It's a fairly well-used statistical model based on aggregating the quality of chances a team generates / concedes and their probability of scoring from each of them. So to give an example, Ebere Eze banging a fk in off the bar from 30 yards looks great, but 9 times out of 10 it'll miss. A gameplan built around doing that every game would not generate many points. Similarly, expecting your keeper to have a worldie every game isn't a sustainable plan for a season.

Looking at the current stats, some things jump out:

Liverpool are conceding more and scoring fewer than they should - if this reverts to the mean (as expected) they'll win the league. Spurs are over-performing on both metrics atm, which isn't sustainable if there isn't an underlying reason for it.

You guys have scored ~4 more goals than you should from the chances you've had, but also conceded ~2 more from the chances given away. So you're in round about the right place.

Palace are over-scoring and under-conceding, suggesting they'll drop down the table as the season goes on. Both Fulham and Burnley are under-scoring and over-conceding - meaning they're far from relegation certs given their performances.

West Brom however are exactly where their xG says they should be - 6 scored, 18 conceded. Meaning that's a good bet they'll stay there.

It's an interesting model to analyse how teams are actually performing not just see their scores. All available on InfoGol.

 

[Sharpattack]

Nice to see they’re worse than us at defending.

 

[Nymzee]

Bamford has also been a huge miss for them, he seemed to get goals out of not much last season.

They've been as unlucky as us, maybe more so, with key injuries. You aren't winning any games in this league with players like Ayling and Dallas in defence.

 

[Bohemian Toffee]

I do enjoy a good Leeds beatdown at Elland Road

It's got that edge to the crowd where you can feel the heat of the fume through the TV. Feels like a lynching in the car park is only a Martinelli hat trick away.

They need to work on their half time boo though,

 

[Toast]

Benitez odds lengthening with every goal..

Sake.