The remaining 14 Games

[Igrok]

Next thread - just 13 games left... one game at a time please...

 

[SerenityNigh]

We won't beat Spurs, nope.

You've forgotten about Spurs secret weapon: Tim Sherwood

 

[bicycleheader]

I've read Spurs fans complaining/worrying about how slowly they start games. We could take advantage of this but it seems a while since I've seen us get into a team from the off.

Another interesting fact is we have the same points away from home so far, as Spurs do at home. 18.

 

[Whitty]

You've forgotten about Spurs secret weapon: Tim Sherwood

Hopefully he'll stick with playintg 4-4-2 with that young lad in the centre.

 

[royalblue66]

We won't beat Spurs, nope.

That's the spirit.

 

[njligernj]

I see threads akin to this on red café and other blogs and they always bring a sardonic smile to my grill. I have 7 words and a date which illustrates the futility of potential future points prediction: Everton versus Sunderland at Goodison : Boxing Day 2013

True but in fairness that's why OP has opted for a tiered approach which means one result doesn't throw everything off.

 

[deipnosophist]

So do I - Everton versus Aston Villa at Goodison : February 1st
I predicted an Everton win, and it actually happened

So, we compare my Sunderland and your Villa predictions with the actual outcome and we correctly predicted one out of two ...it's a coin toss (which was kind of my point).

 

[Big Doug]

Will only beat spurs if traore is fit imo, going into that sort of game with no fit striker is asking for trouble

 

[SerenityNigh]

Hopefully he'll stick with playintg 4-4-2 with that young lad in the centre.

"Who needs a holding mid? That's not how we used to play the game"

 

[SerenityNigh]

Will only beat spurs if traore is fit imo, going into that sort of game with no fit striker is asking for trouble

Could be worse--could be starting Kolo at CB

 

[Jay]

I just read all the replies and I want to clarify again, it’s not predictions, it’s more of a forecast taking into consideration season form, recent form, injuries, home and away form, transfers, ect.

Freak results like the Sunderland game will happen, but things will balance each other out, for example if you asked how many points we were going to get from United and Arsenal away and Sunderland home, most of the answers were going to be 4 (Sunderland win, United draw and Arsenal defeat), the outcome is correct with 4 points, but different set of results.

Next 3 games (Spurs and Chelsea away and Palace home) we should get 4 points according to the forecast, if we get more, it means we can finish with more than 71 points (if the rest of the games go according the forecast)

Anyway as the season goes on, I will keep updating to see where we are, and it will get clear then, now for the fun of it, I will also do the same for Spurs, United and Liverpool

 

[Jay]

United
---------
Fulham (H)
Arsenal (A)
Palace (A)
WBA (A)
Liverpool (H)
West Ham (A)
City (H)
Villa (H)
Newcastle (A)
Hull (H)
Everton (A)
Norwich (H)
Sunderland (H)
Southampton (A)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 pointers (must win games) = 15 Points
Fulham (H)
Villa (H)
Hull (H)
Norwich (H)
Sunderland (H)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 pointers (Should win) = 8 points
Palace (A)
West Ham (A)
WBA (A)
Liverpool (H)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.5 pointers (50-50 games) = 3 points
Newcastle (A)
Southampton (A)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 pointers (should at least get a point games) = 3 points
Arsenal (A)
City (H)
Everton (A)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 points (Bonus games) = 0 point
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now I’ve been very generous to United, they are currently averaging 1.6 ppg, while I gave them 2 ppg, still the outcome is 69 points, 2 points behind us.

In other words, if we continue the same form without improving while United improve to 2 points per game, we will still finish ahead of them

 

[Jay]

Spurs
-------
Everton (H)
Newcastle (A)
Norwich (A)
Cardiff (H)
Chelsea (A)
Arsenal (H)
Southampton (H)
Liverpool (A)
Sunderland (H)
WBA (A)
Fulham (H)
Stoke (A)
West Ham (A)
Villa (H)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 pointers (must win games) = 12 Points
Cardiff (H)
Sunderland (H)
Fulham (H)
Villa (H)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 pointers (Should win) = 4 points
Norwich (A)
Southampton (H)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.5 pointers (50-50 games) = 6 points
Everton (H)
Arsenal (H)
WBA (A)
West Ham (A)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 pointers (should at least get a point games) = 3 points
Liverpool (A)
Newcastle (A)
Stoke (A)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 points (Bonus games) = 0 point
Chelsea (A)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Spurs have very tough away games, in fact apart from Norwich away, they have 6 away games where they will not be favorites in any of those games, they also host us and Arsenal, I still gave them 1.78 ppg, they are currently averaging 1.83 ppg, I personally expect them to average less than 1.78 ppg, but even if they do, they will end up with 69 points, again 2 points behind us.

 

[Jay]

Liverpool
------------
Arsenal (H)
Fulham (A)
Swansea (H)
Southampton (A)
Sunderland (H)
United (A)
Cardiff (A)
Spurs (H)
West Ham (A)
City (H)
Norwich (A)
Chelsea (H)
Palace (A)
Newcastle (H)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 pointers (must win games) = 9 Points
Swansea (H)
Sunderland (H)
Newcastle (H)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 pointers (Should win) = 12 points
Fulham (A)
Cardiff (A)
Spurs (H)
West Ham (A)
Norwich (A)
Palace (A)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.5 pointers (50-50 games) = 6 points
Arsenal (H)
Chelsea (H)
City (H)
Southampton (A)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 pointers (should at least get a point games) = 1 points
United (A)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 points (Bonus games) = 0 point
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Liverpool don’t have any visits to top 6 teams, their toughest away games are United and Southampton, while they play the top 3 at home in addition to Spurs they have 5 away games against teams fighting against relegation, my forecast gave them 2 ppg and a total of 75 points, which means 4 points ahead of us, in fact make that 5 since they have a much better goal difference, so either we must perform better than what I forecasted or they have to underachieve, or obviously a bit of both.

Liverpool are the favorites for 4[SUP]th[/SUP] with 75 points, we come 5[SUP]th[/SUP] with 71 points and Spurs and United 69 points.

 

[Tel001]

That last min goal for the ****e at goodison is going to clinch it for them IMO