The 2015 Popularity Contest (aka UK General Election )

[peteblue]

They don't just pick polling stations at random mate. They know the areas which are likely to give an accurate estimate of the real vote and go to those areas.

And they did the same in 2010 and got it spot on......

 

[Donald Twain]

thoughts on election tournament so far....

...it's good but it's no transfer deadline day is it, where's the dildoes FFS ???

oh no take it back, there's michael gove

I wont name names.

 

[orly]

Exit polls are basically facts

 

[Tubey]

And they did the same in 2010 and got it spot on......

Yet have added two parties to the poll this time round. To give the 22,000 sample size context, that's less than the people who vote in most constituencies alone.

I agree generally though - for the margin of error to be incredibly wrong they'd have had to have accidentally selected around twice the amount of Tories in their sample than a usual exit poll would - like if they picked out 1 in every 10 leaving the station, they'd have to have picked a Tory voter 50% of the time or something daft.

 

[rascal]

Tories will just borrow more and more money in their failed attempt to get the deficit down. When you have independent experts telling you that you have it wrong, then it's safe to assume that you have it wrong. The tory economic plan is nothing more than ideology. Still, it's too late now. The idiots have won the day. Do they do refunds on time spent voting?

 

[evilwebby]

I think in retrospect, how the two leaders reacted to that twerk Russell Brand may have be a defining point in this campaign and galvanised the Tory. Do you want a leader who sucks up to that cretin, or someone who treats him with the contempt that he deserves?

Life's full of little ironies, eh?

 

[Pat's Van]

She looks a 'sort'.

one with the clock's alright too

 

[tim gabbott]

She looks a 'sort'.

So is her mar

 

[orly]

Tories will just borrow more and more money in their failed attempt to get the deficit down.

Labour even said they would do this again, having done this before.

 

[ToffeeDoug]

Balls is a pillock who doesn't understand numbers. Labour will be well off getting shot of him.........

About 18-24 months ago he seemed to disappear off the political scene, no longer on The Andrew Marr show, no longer being interviewed on the news, no longer giving speeches, as if he had been culled by Milliband and then he re-appeared in political life after about 6 months away. All very strange.

 

[Mrk]

How is he wrong if the Tories have no partner now to get them over the line and into government? Of course he'll get the DUP if they do get 316, but that looks a bit high....I expect the total to be about 308 for the Tories and therefore can you tell me what they do then? Balls is spot on if that slide back to a lower number continues.

Thoughts?

If the Tories are over 300, it is an exceptional result for them. 300 + 9 DUP or 10 LD's would allow the Tories to form a relatively stable minority government.

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

Thanks. I don't think it is though.

It was nonsensical garbage mate, sorry.

 

[Woolly Blue]

And none of the others do that, that have had the Cons and Labour neck and neck for the last 2 months.

Much smaller sample size, done by either phone or on the internet. Most of the polls in the papers go on standard demographics and don't necessarily focus on marginals. They're good at giving an estimate of the percentage votes across the country, but converting that into an estimate of seats won is fraught with danger when things are as close as they have been this time round.

If the exit poll had forecast Labour with 310 seats you'd probably have thought it was accurate and we wouldn't be having this conversation.
It'll be much more obvious what the true story is tomorrow morning.

 

[davek]

I think in retrospect, how the two leaders reacted to that twerk Russell Brand may have be a defining point in this campaign and galvanised the Tory. Do you want a leader who sucks up to that cretin, or someone who treats him with the contempt that he deserves?

Life's full of little ironies, eh?

There may well be some ironies left over from tonight. I wouldn't gloat too soon if I were you.

 

[The Mighty Quint]

Balls is a pillock who doesn't understand numbers. Labour will be well off getting shot of him.........

His Academic CV is up there with the best of the best Economists.