Statistic to debunk the "no Plan B" theory

[ToffeeDan]

As you all know the naysayers over at BK and Toffeeweb are fond of reminding us that Moyes has no Plan B and his substitutions are weak and ineffective:

So here's an interesting little stat to show this might not be true:

Since substitutions have been allowed (1965) - expanded to 2 (and now 3 per game) - Everton substitutes have scored 159 goals. In 37 years before Moyes became manager subs scored 87 goals - in the 9 years since he became manager subs have scored 72 goals.

2 subs were permitted from the mid 1980s - in the 16 years prior to Moyes becoming manager the subs scored 56 goals (average 3.5 per season). In the past 9 years they have averaged 8 per season with an all time high of 12 last season (including consecutive home games with two substitutes scoring - Gosling and Rodwell vs Man U and Donovan and Rodwell vs Hull - only achieved once before at home (Preki and Barlow vs QPR 1992-93).

For the record 11 goals have been scored by subs in games against the Dark Side! Can you name the 9 heroes (2 netted doubles - i.e. in the same game) - 5 of the goals in the FA Cup?

 

[Matt Damon]

"GET JOL IN"

 

[Elong]

Nice stats there mate.

Without wanting to start a Get Dickov/Jol/Megaman in arguement here, would be interesting to see how it stacks against other teams for a better comparison? I reckon Fergie does brilliant with his subs epecially the really late ones. (Get Fergie in Kenwrong ffs!).

Wouldn't know where to look for that though.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

One of the heroes has to be Tony Cottee in the epic 4-4 cup game.

 

[Tubey]

The stats are a bit wrong whilst being right. If you look at football before the 1990's, subs where considerably less common. You had a starting eleven and the squad was used in the case of injury before the game more than a tactical decision during it.

The reason we have an increase in sub goals under Moyes isn't necessarily down to his management, rather that we have a much better team than we had previously in the Premier League era started in 1992 and that increased quality had amounted to more late goals against weaker opposition.

Whilst not wanting to rehash an old argument, Moyes is a good motivator and astute in the transfer market, but he's generally a poor tactician.

 

[BlueLlama]

As you all know the naysayers over at BK and Toffeeweb are fond of reminding us that Moyes has no Plan B and his substitutions are weak and ineffective:

So here's an interesting little stat to show this might not be true:

Since substitutions have been allowed (1965) - expanded to 2 (and now 3 per game) - Everton substitutes have scored 159 goals. In 37 years before Moyes became manager subs scored 87 goals - in the 9 years since he became manager subs have scored 72 goals.

2 subs were permitted from the mid 1980s - in the 16 years prior to Moyes becoming manager the subs scored 56 goals (average 3.5 per season). In the past 9 years they have averaged 8 per season with an all time high of 12 last season (including consecutive home games with two substitutes scoring - Gosling and Rodwell vs Man U and Donovan and Rodwell vs Hull - only achieved once before at home (Preki and Barlow vs QPR 1992-93).

For the record 11 goals have been scored by subs in games against the Dark Side! Can you name the 9 heroes (2 netted doubles - i.e. in the same game) - 5 of the goals in the FA Cup?

McCall in the final is the easy one

 

[ijjysmith]

Get Vellios on

 

[ToffeeDan]

Yes, I realise that tactics have changed but my argument was that the substitutions are not so ineffective. If you look at the 10 years prior to Moyes (1992-3 season to Mar 2002) the number of goals per season were 5, 3, 4, 5, 1, 3, 1, 3, 3, 1, 4. In the remainder of the 02-03 season we had 3.

Under Moyes we have had 03-04 onwards: 8 (Rooney 4), 9 (Rooney and Ferguson 5), 8, 2, 9, 10, 6, 12 and 5 so far this season - which is a much greater return for whatever reason that may be (including being a better - or perhaps fitter - team).

 

[billycopper]

You also have to factor in that we're generally cautious and it's only usually in the last 15 minutes, if we're chasing a game, that we show more adventure and push players forward, which creates more opportunities.

 

[toffeestillidie]

Yes, I realise that tactics have changed but my argument was that the substitutions are not so ineffective. If you look at the 10 years prior to Moyes (1992-3 season to Mar 2002) the number of goals per season were 5, 3, 4, 5, 1, 3, 1, 3, 3, 1, 4. In the remainder of the 02-03 season we had 3.

Under Moyes we have had 03-04 onwards: 8 (Rooney 4), 9 (Rooney and Ferguson 5), 8, 2, 9, 10, 6, 12 and 5 so far this season - which is a much greater return for whatever reason that may be (including being a better - or perhaps fitter - team).

i appreciate the research but we don't have the context to evaluate the numbers. we should be comparing his goals from subs number to other teams in the current era, not comparing it to ourselves back when the game was entirely different. if we were to do the same comparison you did for several other teams, would find a similar increase in goals scored by subs just because the nature of the game has changed? that comparison would really tell us how effective our subs are at scoring relative to the teams we're competing against

 

[Summerskin]

Reet interesting!

And Newcastle midfield maestro Danny Gosling was a goal scoring sub against the RS.

 

[Welton Toffee]

So it turns out Moyesey is a tactical genius. Who knew?

 

[Seamus Colemole]

And of course there is a huge difference between simply swapping 1 striker for another and that new striker getting a lucky rebound in the box to score and a tactical substituion designed to change the shape of the game in our favour, and it working.

Its not as simple as "the sub scored so the manager is a genius for making that sub".

We need to whole story before we can judge.

 

[toffeebhoy]

a fair enough point but what its not tellin you is

how many times has VIC been our 1st sub on ??????

how many times has he been continually given the responsability of changing the game ?????

how many games hav we bene lookin to change things around to try get us back into the game( sometimes as early as the start of 2nd half) only to be treated with 4-5 min cameo roles??????

where is plan b then ????