Relegation

[TGW89]

Poor girl must be struggling

View attachment 165270

Up there in the God Tier with Aldo's lockdown diaries.

 

[The Binman]

Speaking to a Leeds fan tonight he‘s pretty well given up…

So had we 3-4 weeks ago, I still think it’s going to be on the last game…

 

[LABlue2]

What permutations out of interest

The short answer is that you can limit the scenarios in which GD comes into play. 40 points will guarantee us safety (given Leeds aren’t overturning a 20 goal difference). So it comes into play if both us and Burnley finish on any of 36, 37, 38, or 39 points. Because Burnley are behind us now, in any situation in which we’re level on points, Burnley will have outperformed us in the final 3 matches which will likely stretch the the goal difference even more beyond the current gap of 2. Best seen in one example which is:

Everton 36 points. Draw draw lose. End on 38 points.
- assume for a moment that we only lose our match by a single goal
- Goal difference is now at best -20

Burnley 34 points. Win draw lose. End on 38 points.
- Goal difference remains -17 assuming they win and lose by the same amount
- It could be at worst -20 if they lose 4-0 to Spurs and then win only 1-0

So basically 4-0 spurs even barely comes into play

 

[Neiler]

Goal scoring seems a particular issue this season, see stats below....

Number/Player/Age/Nationality/Games in Squad/Apperances/Goal/Minutes
View attachment 165255

It’s creating goals to my mind mate.

 

[blue to the bone]

The short answer is that you can limit the scenarios in which GD comes into play. 40 points will guarantee us safety (given Leeds aren’t overturning a 20 goal difference). So it comes into play if both us and Burnley finish on any of 36, 37, 38, or 39 points. Because Burnley are behind us now, in any situation in which we’re level on points, Burnley will have outperformed us in the final 3 matches which will likely stretch the the goal difference even more beyond the current gap of 2. Best seen in one example which is:

Everton 36 points. Draw draw lose. End on 38 points.
- assume for a moment that we only lose our match by a single goal
- Goal difference is now at best -20

Burnley 34 points. Win draw lose. End on 38 points.
- Goal difference remains -17 assuming they win and lose by the same amount
- It could be at worst -20 if they lose 4-0 to Spurs and then win only 1-0

So basically 4-0 spurs even barely comes into play

So we are only picking up 1 more 2 draws but Burnley 4 points . And discounting Leeds altogether?

 

[Kylito]

Main thing is that as we’re the late kickoff on Sunday we’ll know exactly what we need. Leeds lose to Brighton and a point will do it. If they get a draw then we go into that game knowing a win guarantees safety.

 

[witchdoc187]

Good for Spurs, bad for Arsenal and means nothing to Everton

This

 

[witchdoc187]

Main thing is that as we’re the late kickoff on Sunday we’ll know exactly what we need. Leeds lose to Brighton and a point will do it. If they get a draw then we go into that game knowing a win guarantees safety.

That's good because I've just realised we have Palace on Thursday and my mate is flying in for one night. He will definitely not want to watch that on his one night out in Spain. Let's hope Brighton just avoid defeat

 

[LABlue2]

So we are only picking up 1 more 2 draws but Burnley 4 points . And discounting Leeds altogether?

I’m purely talking about whether GD comes into play and whether it matters if Spurs beat Burnley 3-0 or 1-0… obviously if Leeds surpass us in points they’ll be above us

That’s just an example where we both finish on 38 points. You could do the same type of math if we finish on 37 or 39 and it’ll give you the same result relative to Burnleys goal difference. If we finish with 40 we’re safe regardless because Leeds can’t catch us then.

 

[blue to the bone]

I’m purely talking about whether GD comes into play and whether it matters if Spurs beat Burnley 3-0 or 1-0… obviously if Leeds surpass us in points they’ll be above us

That’s just an example where we both finish on 38 points. You could do the same type of math if we finish on 37 or 39 and it’ll give you the same result relative to Burnleys goal difference. If we finish with 40 we’re safe regardless because Leeds can’t catch us then.

I think you are over thinking it . But that's OK too . You are not alone

 

[Luke Jay]

Burnley ain't getting anything from Spurs and Arsenal should batter us. It shouldn't matter because Leeds are abysmal.

 

[NathDogg]

Just gotta hope the yids and Brighton beat their opponents before we kick a ball and an already pumped Goodison goes proper mental - hopefully that gets us over the line against Brentford and we’re all on the lash for a month or two! Injuries and/or suspensions could really impact both Burnley and Leeds now these last games - hope they do.

Can’t wait to put this shitshow off a season behind us, get behind frank and Kev and let them cull the squad.

Please, please Everton, just win on Sunday.

 

[Bob Elstone]

I think we’ll beat brentford at home. Spurs 2-0 against Burnley.

Leeds are decimated by injuries and suspensions

 

[Toff33Blues99]

That's very harsh after the effort of the last 6 games or so.

Last 5 of 6 doesn't help when the 6th game was so devoid of creativity and passion when we are not safe. Its typical of this bunch , the minute they think have achieved something they switch down a gear

 

[LABlue2]

I think you are over thinking it . But that's OK too . You are not alone

Lol I’m just giving you the factual math that spurs winning 3-0 vs 1-0 is very unlikely to make a difference because of the permutations that would make us level on GD need spurs to win 4+ to Nil otherwise the GD is further away than it looks

But let’s finish above them on points and make it all not matter