Relegation 2022/23

[davek]

So handy they lost at home to Bournemouth. Yup, our direct rivals.

As I said, it's actually immaterial if Forest are handy or not. We don't have the luxury of waving games like this away. It was a glorious opportunity to take three points and drag them in - and we fluffed our lines.

They've taken 20 points from a possible 39 at home. Does taking a point from them there not represent a decent return to you?

 

[davek]

The worrying thing for those running with the "Forest are a tough side to play at home" and "We'll beat Brentford at Goodison" argument is that if, as the great @davek, says "Forest are handy at home", then Everton really aren't. We are one of the worst home teams in the league. The stats bear Dave out - in terms of Forest being decent at the City Ground, but they also suggest we are very poor at home. The only consolation is Brentford are, apparently, one of the worst away. Looks a draw to me...

But you have to narrow that analysis down to what's been happening since Dyche arrived. That's what all analysis of our chances should be informed by.

So, on that basis, we have won 2 and lost 1 at home under Dyche, and our form since he arrived is 13th best in the PL.

Just deal with the relevant period and you'll see that what appears 'optimistic' or 'delusional' is, in fact, realistic.

 

[Drico]

How is it optimistic/delusional? Forest will be away next Saturday to a Spurs team that desperately need the points to stave off Liverpool from that 4th CL spot. And we'll be playing at home to a team we've played 3 times in just over 12 months and been the better team in those games. If that happens then there's 1 point between us and Forest.

That's a very reasonable possibility.

I'm not talking about simply beating Brentford. I am saying it will be veering into the rose-tinted if we don't beat Brentford AND go on a bit of a run. Beating Brentford will, basically, have to be factored in if we are to have any chance to survive. Beating Forest was part of the recipe to dragging Forest in. I wouldn't trust us to beat Brentford - we didn't last season - and I wouldn't trust Spurs full stop.

I think where I differ from those I consider "optimistic" is I am looking at things we can control: i.e., our own matches. In my outlook, we must get ourselves safe. However, there is a possible safety net: that we don't do what I think we need to and still stay up because other sides are even worse and do even less for themselves than we do. I just find it hard to remain sanguine about that. For me, we need to control what we can - and my blood pressure is shooting up with every stupidly missed opportunity (like yesterday). That Forest team was there for the taking - no matter how respectable they are at home. And we blew it. So, this is where I am coming from. I suppose it can be summed up as: We can have no complaints whatsoever if we do not do all we can do to help ourselves.

In reality, I think my standards are STILL too high, despite all evidence to the contrary.

 

[Drico]

They've taken 20 points from a possible 39 at home. Does taking a point from them there not represent a decent return to you?

Decent, yes. Enough? Not in our position. That's my argument: we have underachieved so spectacularly that we must now overachieve to compensate. So, while you are right - in the course of a normal season - that a draw at Forest is a reasonable result, it is not enough this season given our plight. That's not to say we cannot make up those two lost points. It's simply to say that we are running out of opportunities to do that and yesterday is a disappointing result given the context and the fact we led twice (including with 13 minutes to go).

 

[MisterJ]

The Guardian's 10 conclusions column sees hope for us

Dyche’s false 9 delivers numbers​

No one is suggesting Sean Dyche’s Everton are close to resembling peak Barcelona or Pep Guardiola’s pre-Haaland Manchester City but, in the absence of a proven and recognised centre-forward, perhaps playing with six midfield players is not such a bad shout. With Dominic Calvert-Lewin hamstrung and Neal Maupay short on confidence and goals, Everton played Demarai Gray furthest forward at the City Ground, with Abdoulaye Doucouré and Amadou Onana taking turns to support him. The result was Everton scoring twice in a first half for the first time this season and another 10 shots in total, making it 60 in Dyche’s first six games. They also had double Forest’s expected goals, with Dwight McNeil and Alex Iwobi looking dangerous from wide areas, but had the manpower in midfield to retain a degree of control despite Forest’s impassioned second-half fightback. Victory escaped them, but the evidence is there to suggest Everton are on an upwards trajectory. Peter Lansley

 

[davek]

I'm not talking about simply beating Brentford. I am saying it will be veering into the rose-tinted if we don't beat Brentford AND go on a bit of a run. Beating Brentford will, basically, have to be factored in if we are to have any chance to survive. Beating Forest was part of the recipe to dragging Forest in. I wouldn't trust us to beat Brentford - we didn't last season - and I wouldn't trust Spurs full stop.

I think where I differ from those I consider "optimistic" is I am looking at things we can control: i.e., our own matches. In my outlook, we must get ourselves safe. However, there is a possible safety net: that we don't do what I think we need to and still stay up because other sides are even worse and do even less for themselves than we do. I just find it hard to remain sanguine about that. For me, we need to control what we can - and my blood pressure is shooting up with every stupidly missed opportunity (like yesterday). That Forest team was there for the taking - no matter how respectable they are at home. And we blew it. So, this is where I am coming from. I suppose it can be summed up as: We can have no complaints whatsoever if we do not do all we can do to help ourselves.

In reality, I think my standards are STILL too high, despite all evidence to the contrary.

It's not either or: our own form or other teams form; it's a combination of both. If we continue to get what we've got under Dyche - which is 7 points in 6 games - then we'll end up with another 14 points from the remainder of games. That puts us on 36 points. That may be enough given the utter carnage amongst about 6/7 teams all around us.

And dont forget that in those forst 6 games we played the best team in the PL twice and had our annual bake-in whup assing from Liverpool.

We can reasonably hope for 38/39 points IMO.

 

[davek]

The Guardian's 10 conclusions column sees hope for us

Dyche’s false 9 delivers numbers​

No one is suggesting Sean Dyche’s Everton are close to resembling peak Barcelona or Pep Guardiola’s pre-Haaland Manchester City but, in the absence of a proven and recognised centre-forward, perhaps playing with six midfield players is not such a bad shout. With Dominic Calvert-Lewin hamstrung and Neal Maupay short on confidence and goals, Everton played Demarai Gray furthest forward at the City Ground, with Abdoulaye Doucouré and Amadou Onana taking turns to support him. The result was Everton scoring twice in a first half for the first time this season and another 10 shots in total, making it 60 in Dyche’s first six games. They also had double Forest’s expected goals, with Dwight McNeil and Alex Iwobi looking dangerous from wide areas, but had the manpower in midfield to retain a degree of control despite Forest’s impassioned second-half fightback. Victory escaped them, but the evidence is there to suggest Everton are on an upwards trajectory. Peter Lansley

He should really have been in the team before now, tbf.

He's one of only a few players we have up front that knows where the net is. He fluffed his lines at the end of the 1st half yesterday, but he was in space for that chance and he's a much better option than Maupay.

That feller is right also to point out our shots on goal. Dyche has had us playing with more aggression as an attacking force without a striker. The only thing he'll be concerned about is the turnover of the ball to the opposition too many times per game. Reduce that and we'll be picking up more points.

 

[Tony’s Carp]

The Guardian's 10 conclusions column sees hope for us

Dyche’s false 9 delivers numbers​

No one is suggesting Sean Dyche’s Everton are close to resembling peak Barcelona or Pep Guardiola’s pre-Haaland Manchester City but, in the absence of a proven and recognised centre-forward, perhaps playing with six midfield players is not such a bad shout. With Dominic Calvert-Lewin hamstrung and Neal Maupay short on confidence and goals, Everton played Demarai Gray furthest forward at the City Ground, with Abdoulaye Doucouré and Amadou Onana taking turns to support him. The result was Everton scoring twice in a first half for the first time this season and another 10 shots in total, making it 60 in Dyche’s first six games. They also had double Forest’s expected goals, with Dwight McNeil and Alex Iwobi looking dangerous from wide areas, but had the manpower in midfield to retain a degree of control despite Forest’s impassioned second-half fightback. Victory escaped them, but the evidence is there to suggest Everton are on an upwards trajectory. Peter Lansley

I know not everyone loves stats and xG but the underlying numbers under Dyche are night and day from Lampard, and pretty reassuring. Not only were our two wins fully deserved but against Villa and Forest the numbers show we deserved more. By contrast, even the decent results under Lampard had pretty poor underlying numbers.

 

[NeilA1878]

But you have to narrow that analysis down to what's been happening since Dyche arrived. That's what all analysis of our chances should be informed by.

So, on that basis, we have won 2 and lost 1 at home under Dyche, and our form since he arrived is 13th best in the PL.

Just deal with the relevant period and you'll see that what appears 'optimistic' or 'delusional' is, in fact, realistic.

We have more points than most of our relegation rivals since he arrived, including Bournemouth, Leeds and Southampton. Add to that we've probably been underperforming based on our metrics (xG etc.) as well...

Positive signs.

 

[Charles Hawtrey]

The Guardian's 10 conclusions column sees hope for us

Dyche’s false 9 delivers numbers​

No one is suggesting Sean Dyche’s Everton are close to resembling peak Barcelona or Pep Guardiola’s pre-Haaland Manchester City but, in the absence of a proven and recognised centre-forward, perhaps playing with six midfield players is not such a bad shout. With Dominic Calvert-Lewin hamstrung and Neal Maupay short on confidence and goals, Everton played Demarai Gray furthest forward at the City Ground, with Abdoulaye Doucouré and Amadou Onana taking turns to support him. The result was Everton scoring twice in a first half for the first time this season and another 10 shots in total, making it 60 in Dyche’s first six games. They also had double Forest’s expected goals, with Dwight McNeil and Alex Iwobi looking dangerous from wide areas, but had the manpower in midfield to retain a degree of control despite Forest’s impassioned second-half fightback. Victory escaped them, but the evidence is there to suggest Everton are on an upwards trajectory. Peter Lansley

Sporting Life quoted a stat too....
"In six games under Dyche, the Toffees have racked up an average of 1.59 xGF per game, and that ranks them as the seventh most potent attacking team since the managerial switch.That is impressive especially as they have played Arsenal twice and Liverpool away in that time, so there are positives for Everton."

 

[Bigduke1234]

He should really have been in the team before now, tbf.

He's one of only a few players we have up front that knows where the net is. He fluffed his lines at the end of the 1st half yesterday, but he was in space for that chance and he's a much better option than Maupay.

That feller is right also to point out our shots on goal. Dyche has had us playing with more aggression as an attacking force without a striker. The only thing he'll be concerned about is the turnover of the ball to the opposition too many times per game. Reduce that and we'll be picking up more points.

I’m also hopeful one or more of the injured players can return and make a positive contribution. Whether that be Garner, DCL or even Patterson (), we could do with a lift.

 

[davek]

Decent, yes. Enough? Not in our position. That's my argument: we have underachieved so spectacularly that we must now overachieve to compensate. So, while you are right - in the course of a normal season - that a draw at Forest is a reasonable result, it is not enough this season given our plight. That's not to say we cannot make up those two lost points. It's simply to say that we are running out of opportunities to do that and yesterday is a disappointing result given the context and the fact we led twice (including with 13 minutes to go).

I dont think it's as drastic as going from spectacular underachievement to overachievement to stay up, though.

Look at the last 6 games only - since Dyche's arrival - and that tells you that we're picking up more points now than under Lampard and that many other teams (including our relegation threatened rivals) are not doing it on the pitch in relation to what we're doing. And that's with us just doing 'reasonably' well.

The team is adapting to what Dyche wants. We have a decent group of players and enough of them so that, if we get injuries to the starters we have now, we can slot others in without too much damage. I doubt others down there have that. They may have a decent striker - which is what we struggle with - but they wont have our overall strength. Garner's return will also add another set piece threat for us. And I think Gray might be used now until the end of the season...and I would always bet on him coming up with a goal every few matches.

 

[Margarita]

Sporting Life quoted a stat too....
"In six games under Dyche, the Toffees have racked up an average of 1.59 xGF per game, and that ranks them as the seventh most potent attacking team since the managerial switch.That is impressive especially as they have played Arsenal twice and Liverpool away in that time, so there are positives for Everton."

It also indicates that Dyche's approach isn't simply about defensive stability. Better use of the ball and having an approach that isn't just 'hope and pray' will likely lead to more opportunities to score. Lampard was not a serious coach.

 

[davek]

I’m also hopeful one or more of the injured players can return and make a positive contribution. Whether that be Garner, Dominic Calvert-Lewin or even Patterson (), we could do with a lift.

Garner and Calvert-Lewin - defo.

Patterson wont get anywhere near that FB shirt now. Seamus is doing it for us. Patterson could in theory be used further up the pitch ahead of Coleman.

But it does underline our strength in depth in all but the forward department.

 

[MikeH72]

Garner and Calvert-Lewin - defo.

Patterson wont get anywhere near that FB shirt now. Seamus is doing it for us. Patterson could in theory be used further up the pitch ahead of Coleman.

But it does underline our strength in depth in all but the forward department.

what. Tom Davies still gets on the pitch and we have to start a knackered Gana. Mykolenko is our starting left back and our backup isn’t even good enough to step in for him for one game, how can you call this strength in depth? Simply having a lot of bodies doesn’t equal strength in depth.