I see two questions that are the same?
You work in the NHS you say, good grief!
No the first question is whether ONS shows excess deaths were declining compared to the five year average. Clearly the number of excess deaths is declining. In early April we had a huge number of excess deaths. That number has quite obviously declined as evidenced by every available metric.
The second question is whether excess deaths are above the seasonal average. As I said from week 19 the excess deaths in hospitals are below the seasonal average.
Now you may see that as a cop out but it isn't. The reason why it is more sensible to look at the hospital excess death statistic is that the conditions in care homes has changed. The government have lowered the minimum standards required of care homes. That has lead to an increase in deaths unrelated to coronavirus.
From the latest ONS report.
- In the period from Week 11 (ending 13 March) to Week 18 (ending 1 May), over 8,000 fewer deaths were registered in hospitals than in the corresponding period in the weekly average, a decrease of 20.9%; in contrast, almost 11,000 more deaths were registered in care homes, an increase of 60.5%, and over 8,000 more deaths were registered in private homes in this period, an increase of 42.6%.
- The largest increases in non-COVID-19 deaths compared to the five-year average are seen in deaths due to "dementia and Alzheimer disease" and "symptoms, signs and ill-defined conditions" (the latter mostly indicating old age and frailty); overall, there have been 5,404 excess deaths (an increase of 52.2% on the five-year average) due to dementia and Alzheimer disease and 1,567 excess deaths (an increase of 77.8%) due to "symptoms signs and ill-defined conditions" from Week 11 (ending 13 March) to Week 18 (ending 1 May), which together comprise two thirds of total non-COVID-19 excess deaths in this period.
- Deaths due to causes such as asthma and diabetes increased up to the week ending 24 April 2020 and occurred increasingly outside hospital; this could suggest a delay in care for these conditions is leading to an increase in deaths, although this rise could also be related to undiagnosed COVID-19.